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OR: Obama 51, McCain 47 (Rasmussen-9/15)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen Reports
9/15/08; 700 LV, 4%
Mode: IVR

Oregon
Obama 51, McCain 47
(8/7: Obama 52, McCain 42)
Sen: Smith (R-i) 46, Merkley (D) 45
(8/7: Smith 50, Merkley 44)

 

Comments
RaleighNC:

This election might be a head spinner in more ways than one.

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Justin:

Good news for Merkley.

I can't see the McCain camp spending money here.

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Xenobion:

Portland, OR youth vote completely under counted here like the Boulder, CO vote.

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AmericaFirst:

Or Obama for that matter. OR stays blue, or we're all in for a big surprise.

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RaleighNC:

Xenobion...are you sure? Why do you say that? Evidence?

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serpounce:

Palin has really helped here, but I don't see her tipping the state to McCain.

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s.b.:

Now who was it on the NY thread that told me Obama wouldn't have to fight for WA or OR? They are both under a 5 point spread on RCP and WI just went toss up. As I said before, McCain doesn't have to win them. he has to make Obama fight for them. Game on!

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nicely OR:

As an Oregon resident, I can tell you that Obama's campaign is very strong here in Oregon. Portland is overwhelmingly for Obama and so are most of the population centers in the Willamette Valley, which are college towns. Oregon also has a large secular population. Not much excitement here for Gov. Palin. Merkley will defeat encumbent Gordon Smith too. Gordon Smith's ads have gotten really nasty lately, a sign of desperation on his part.

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nicely OR:

Youth vote in Oregon will be play a big role in Obama's victory here.

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thoughtful:

If anybody has the crosstabs it might be interesting!

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KipTin:

McCain does not need to spend money here, but Obama does to be sure Oregon and Washington do not flip. He cannot ignore the Northwest.

But the RNC will be spending money here for the Senate race.

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Scott in PacNW:

@s.b.

Obama will be fine in both states. In WA, the state party had an impressive ground game that gave Kerry a 5%+ margin. The Dem governor is up for re-election after a very narrow win in 2004 (it went to court & everything). That race is what will boost the Dem ground game.

In OR, drive around & you see Obama yard signs everywhere -- even way out in GOP territory like Tillamook! I've been contacted repeatedly by local Obama people. Conversely, I have yet to see a single McCain sign. I've seen one or two McCain bumper stickers.

As a final note, both OR & WA have Dems governors & Dems in charge of both houses of the state legislature. Neither state has voted GOP for president since 1984. These are deep blue states west of the Cascades -- and that's where the people are.

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player:

@Scott in PacNW:
You see them because you are looking for them. Your mind is just going along with you by giving you what you want. It happens when people try to affirm their beliefs.

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HaloFan:

Obama had more negative adds - hence the polls
mccain needs to hit him hard, very hard on everything.
I think he is waiting after the debate

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NW Patrick:

When obama was up against Hillary here the "POLLS" Showed a 2 point race. What did he win by? 12? I live here. In Portland I have never seen 1 McCain bumper sticker. OR is safe folks. LOL

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s.b.:

I dont doubt Portland will go Obama, but the state is a lot bigger than that. There are still more people that live in small towns than those who live in big cities. Obama will have to fight for these two states. it will take time energy money, people and other resources away from the swing states. Obama will probably win them, but he'll have to fight for them. People on these threads don't quite seem to get that the major swing in the last week is that Obama is going to have to fight to blue states blue, and McCain is not going to have to fight much to keep red states red as was the Obama game plan. It looks like Obama will have to fight for Wisconsin, and Michigan as well. these are all less time to spend on Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

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faithhopelove:

A 4-point lead for Obama in a right-leaning Rasmussen poll is a solid margin. Rasmussen most likely under-estimates Obama's support because he (1) over-samples Republicans, (2) screens out a certain percentage of first-time voters (who are disproportionately young) with his likely voter screen, and (3) does not call cell phones (which also can lead to the under-sampling of young people).

In 2004, a gay marriage ballot measure helped Republicans GOTV in OR. (Kerry still won the state.) Republicans will have no such help this year.

Today's Research 2000 tracker shows Obama with an 8-point lead in the West--despite the fact that the home states of both McCain and Palin are located here. See:
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/17

The last poll showing McCain ahead in OR was in February...of 2007.

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Mike In Maryland:

s.b. said...
"I dont doubt Portland will go Obama, but the state is a lot bigger than that. There are still more people that live in small towns than those who live in big cities."

According to the US Census Bureau 2006 population estimates of Oregon, the state had a population of 3,700,758.

The four largest concentrations of population were:
Portland MSA - 1,713,794 (excluding the Washington state part of the MSA)
Salem MSA - 384,600
Eugene MSA - 337,870
Medford - 197,071

The total population of those four MSAs is 2,633,335, or 71% of Oregon's population.

Now say again that "There are still more people that live in small towns than those who live in big cities."?????

I also doubt that Obama will lose any of those four MSAs, and in fact should win all four very handily.

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KipTin:

Uh... Salem and Medford are located in counties that voted REPUBLICAN in 2004. I doubt if Obama will win them (as in all four MSA's) handily.

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tjampel:

s.b.:

"Now who was it on the NY thread that told me Obama wouldn't have to fight for WA or OR? They are both under a 5 point spread on RCP and WI just went toss up. As I said before, McCain doesn't have to win them. he has to make Obama fight for them. Game on!"

Game on, as in a 5 Million Ad Buy for McCain?
I sincerely hope you're the McCain Ad buyer in the NW; go for it!

Kip Tin gets my begrudging respect by nailing it in his analysis. It may force Obama to do some shoring up to make sure it doesn't get below MOE over the next few weeks. But I'd expect his people to wait for their internal polls to confirm this before alarms start going off. I imagine they are probably producing some Ads now that could be used in OR WI or MN if it gets to that point.

What some newbies here may not realize is that the candidates have a far better idea what's going on in different states (and different counties and areas within those states, via their own pollsters than we do via the publicly released ones.

I do think that Obama Ads will have some residual downticket effect on the Merkely race. That's a huge deal for the Dems right now. Expect a few million from the DSCC to be poured into his coffers in the next month.

Lastly, given the McCain downturn of the last week, we may have seen his lowest poll numbers in OR, WA, WI, and MN (though WI may not come back right away). State polls always lag a bit behind the national horse race.

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tjampel:

Ohh yeah...goes without saying that the decision to run an Ad is perceied as a sign of weakness and that's why Obama's campaign may get em ready but wait till the last moment to open the bomb bays (but if internals are MOE it's bomb's away!)

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mattisnotfrench:

Do any of you actually think McCain has a chance in Oregon? If you lived here, you wouldn't.

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Scott in PacNW:

@player

It's true I look for them, but I look for *all* of them. I see them because they're there. It's not quite like seeing Elvis' face in a pancake.

For example, I marvelled in 2004 at how many Dubya stickers I saw, and that was infinitely more than the McCain stickers this time. But they were much nicer looking stickers too. Maybe that's the issue.

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Scott in PacNW:

@tjampel

McCain's been up on the air in Portland for a while now. At least a month. More than Obama, though he's up there too. They're running 'Real Mavericks' and they just started their economics ad yesterday.

They're effective (if misleading) ads, but nowhere near the saturation of the Gordon Smith ads. And Sen Smith appears to be tanking, so I don't know how much longer McCain will throw money at ads in Oregon. Especially with Obama breaking fundraising records month after month.

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faithhopelove:

Scott in PacNW:

Are those ads on cable? They may be national ad buys. I have not heard or read anything about either candidate targeting OR.

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Scott in PacNW:

@faithhopelove:

No, they're on regular local broadcast TV. We don't have cable or satellite. I recommend the digital converter box. :-)

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faithhopelove:

Here's a new OR poll that shows Obama up 10 there:
http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2008/09/hibbitts_senate_race_close_oba.html

Today's Research 2000 tracker has Obama up 10 in the West. See:
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/18

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faithhopelove:

Thanks for the NW news, Scott. I lived for several years in Tigard and the Vancouver-Camas area. Portland is a wonderful city.

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Scott in PacNW:

@Mike In Maryland:

In general, I agree with you. But Kiptin is correct: Medford and Salem counties went for GWB in 2004. The Medford MSA in particular is deep red GOP territory. The Salem congressional district is an open seat (Dem retiring) and the GOP is divided in that area, which may bode well for Dems this cycle.

OR generally breaks down this way:
1 - Portland and Eugene vote Dem
2 - Portland suburbs (Washington and Clackamas counties) are the swing areas
3 - The rest of the state votes GOP

The breakdown by county for 2004 can be seen at http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov22004/abstract/pr.pdf

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Scott in PacNW:

@faithhopelove:

Thanks for the link to the Hibbits poll. I hadn't seen that.

I'm really surprised Smith is doing so poorly. He's on saturation. That soft on crime ad may be backfiring on him.

And yes, I love Portland. Just moved back after almost 10 years in Seattle. Very happy to be home.

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With Dave Brownlow polling at 8% now, Rasmussen might want to stop excluding him to make their polls appear a little more fair and a lot less biased.

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