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OR: Obama 57, McCain 38 (SurveyUSA-10/25-26)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
10/25-26/08; 672 LV, 3.8%
Mode: IVR

Oregon
Obama 57, McCain 38
Sen: Merkley (D) 49, Smith (R-i) 42, Brownlow (C) 5

 

Comments
C.S.Strowbridge:

Another down ticket race that seems too good to be true.

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NorthernObserver:

Hmmmmmmm -- polls from OR and WA!! I suppose the down ticket items are of interest; still ... rather see something from OH or MO, etc.

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Obama's Pitbull:

I could believe Merkley is ahead now, Smith was running an Ad that said he agreed with Obama. Last week Obama cut an ad for Merkley talking directly to the camera and now you see the results!!! WAH LA!!!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-UkAR81gmk

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NW Patrick:

This is why I live here. My little OASIS away from the stupid people.

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Trosen:

One of Bill O'Reilly's "toss-ups," no?

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Mister H.:

Seriously???

Did Bill O'Reilly really say that Oregon was a toss-up??

LOL....

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Rippleeffect:

I'd love to see proof of O'Reily calling that a tossup. Maybe a couple of months ago, but does anyone have a link, or are they making things up now?

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fed:

I know Obama will not win Louisiana, but early voting looks great for him there

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carl29:

I still remember when McCain had Oregon as one of his target states :-)

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C.S.Strowbridge:

I don't know when this was taken, but...

http://img.skitch.com/20081026-x2im57n1u5csefs549hyman3qg.jpg

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C.S.Strowbridge:


Today on Fox...

http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/

The same map as the image I linked to earlier.

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rami:

One more senate seat.

Let's do some maths.

35 seats up for reelections, 23 were held by republicans, 12 by dems. The standing seats are 37 dems and only 26 reps, plus 2 independants (Lieberman and Sanders);

5 of the 35 senators are not running again. All are republicans.

* Colorado : the seat is very liklely going blue.
* New Mexico : same.
* Virginia : also
* Nebraska and Idaho exiting senators, by contrast, will likely have republicans successors.

Dems are almost surely winning 3/5 open seats, all three in states with an historical "r" bonus (voted bush twice).

12 democrats are running to keep their seat. This includes Joe Biden (indicating that Biden was not so sure of Obama's victory when he was picked). ALL of them are on their way for a safe reelection.

18 republicans incumbents are running again.

10 are quite sure to be reelected.

But :
Stevens (AK) who is now a convincted felon, certainly losing his seat (why was he a running, BTW, he his 85!)
Elisabeth Dole who is probably going to lose in NC...
Franken vs coleman is a tie in MN.
Mississipi "B" is a tie too.
"R" incumbents in KY and GA are ahead just by an hair.
Sununu in NH is lagging his D opponent.
Same in OR.

So the dems will win 3 seats at the very least, probably 6 or more, and potentially 11 !

The bluer case leads to the senate with 60 dems, 38 reps, sanders and liebermann.

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Atomique:

LOL, yup, McCain's gonna sweep OR, IA, WI, MI and PA, I'm sure.

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bclintonk:

O'Reilly's an idiot. Just a blithering idiot. You'd think even Faux News would be embarrassed to have him show this kind of stuff.

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Rippleeffect:

@C.S.Strowbridge:

I don't see a date there, so its kinda hard to say that's his belief at this moment. He hasn't mentioned anything about McCain being close on the Factor for quite some time, and even recognizes that Obama is currently in the lead.

My guess is that its old data. Plus, i can click on the map and change things myself. Refresh it and you get the default again.

Again, anyone have a link to O'Reily actually saying its a tossup and not an undated map?

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Rippleeffect:

@O'Reily comments:


Even though this is on O'Reily's website, if you read the top of the chart it says:

"The 2008 Battlegrounds are states identified by the AP as being closely contested"

http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/

So, I'll now say its what AP originally listed as battleground states, but are not anymore. (obviously for OR)

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Basil:

I'm in Oregon (Eugene) and haven't seen any Obama ads for Merkley. I wonder where they are?

There's no way in hell McCain gets Oregon, and nobody really loves Gordon Smith, but Merkley has run a weak campaign and is less than charismatic. 60 senators is a great target, though.

Polls now in Oregon are weird, since we're totally vote-by-mail (you can walk it in if you like). I got my ballot maybe 10 days ago and sent it in immediately. Since then, maybe five Obama workers have either called or come by, mostly looking for my daughter who registered this year.

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