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OR: Obama 57, McCain 40 (SurveyUSA-10/11-12)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
10/11-12/08; 584 LV, 4.1%
Mode: IVR

Oregon
Obama 57, McCain 40
(9/24: Obama 52, McCain 41)

Sen: Merkley (D) 46, Smith (R-i) 41
(9/24: Merkley 44, Smith 42)

 

Comments
adocarbog:

WOW
WOW
WOW

Isn't OR supposed to be mildly competitive for the MAVERICK????

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Mike_in_CA:

that's absurd. in 2004, Oregon was a "swing state". LOL.

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freedomreigns:

The senate race here is SUPER critical. This can be the 57th senate seat for Dems.

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miatch:

I think McCain just needs to spend a little more money in OR, and he'll have this back into swing state territory. Maybe send the Hockey Mom.

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sulthernao:

Ouch. Is this the same state Gore won by 7000 votes (.5%)? 17% is ridiculous.

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I guess McCain has lost the tree huger vote.

(I can say that having grown up in Oregon)

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socalerdoc:

I agree with the Republican line on taxes but on nothing else.

Why do Republicans have to be so obnoxious and repugnant? Every time I see one of these nuts on tv it makes me want to puke.

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brambster:

57th Senate seat???? How about 60th???? Even 61st or 62nd.

If Obama's momentum doesn't subscide, this will depress Republican turnout and give more strength to Democrats in their individual races. Right now I would say there is a 1/3 shot of 60 seats for Democrats and if they reach 61, they can boot Lieberman to the curb.

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mac7396:

61 seats or not, Lieberman is done caucusing with the dems. The repubs were right about one thing in 2000, he really is a loser.

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Frankie:

Your LIBERAL media:

State X, Obama +10 = BATTLEGROUND

State Y, McCain +2 = LEANS MCCAIN

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Scott in PacNW:

No doubt about Obama here in OR. Zero. Take it to the bank.

Tomorrow is the last day to register to vote in OR, which is an all-mail election state. Ballots get mailed out on Friday.

This couldn't be better timing for Jeff Merkley to hit his peak in the polls. Rockin' good news! Bye bye Gordon Smith.

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brambster:

Lieberman...reminds me of a recent favorite Daily Show clip featuring Droopy Dog and Foghorn Leghorn from the Republican Convention:

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=184085&title=John-McCain:-The-Person-He-Is

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maddiekat:

DRUDGE

"Zogby Tuesday Obama 49% McLiar 43%"

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Paul:

Adjusted for 2004 exit poll on ideology, Obama +11. Moderates Obama +26.

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RussTC3:

How is Drudge getting the numbers so quickly? I'm sure he'll get the Rasmussen numbers early as well.

Regardless, it's just as I expected. The slight movement is just noise.

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MasterFramer:

I live in Oregon... Signs, bumper stickers and pins ratio in the metro area is like 10-1 Obama. 20 points is much closer to what it feels like than the last poll that said 10 points. I wouldn't be surprised if the spread ends up matching California's.

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cinnamonape:

In pollsters predictive race for EV's Obama (320 EV's) just moved to having over DOUBLE the prospective EV's that McCain has (155).

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RussTC3:

Yup. Pollster.com moved North Dakota from Solid McCain to Toss Up.

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katocat:

Portland Oregon here, I can verify most everyone I know is for Obama.

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DTM:

Kerry won Oregon by about 4% in 2004.

Generally, I tend to think about these big polling numbers for Obama in the close Kerry states whenever people claim Obama should be even farther ahead of McCain in the polls. How much more did people really expect?

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AlanSnipes:

My comments are about West Virginia and not Oregon;
I just found out today that the media markets coming out of Virginia, Ohio, and Pannsylvania, cover about 60% of West Virginia. I was skeptical a few days ago when I saw a poll out of West Virginia a few days ago that had Obama up by 8 points.
The air wars that are going on in the other three states may be moving West Virginia in Obama's direction.

Any other thoughts about this?

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Trosen:

McCain did do some moderate to heavy campaigning in OR and WA earlier in the summer. I thought they were wasting their time then, and I was right. I guess they refuse to give up on PA though.

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AlanSnipes:

Make that Pennsylvania (Or Transylvania).

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orange24:

@DTM
How much more did people really expect?

Exactly -- Just saw on Rachel Maddow tonight that Clinton beat Dole by 8.5% in the popular vote and won a ridiculous landslide EV victory. Just exactly what is considered a blowout here? I think just by the nature of the race that it will tighten up. Obama is going to have a lot harder time for a number of reasons. I still think he wins by about 4 or 5 percent and gets around 320 EV - a pretty good landslide for a senator that nobody heard of not too long ago. I want to win by 20, but it ain't gonna happen. But, come on, he's got a pretty damn big lead right now!

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wakeup:

Orange24 watches Maddow... now every time I read Orange24 I will picture Rachel Maddow.

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socalerdoc:

These polls are nice, but I can't wait till this thing is over and McCrazy and Mooseface get the hell out of my life. I look at those loons behind Palin and McCain and I lose my faith in humanity.

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socalerdoc:

These polls are nice, but I can't wait till this thing is over and McCrazy and Mooseface get the hell out of my life. I look at those loons behind Palin and McCain and I lose my faith in humanity.

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zotz:

It's official. The Reps have lost their minds.

"In case you missed it over the weekend, a minister who gave the invocation at a McCain rally in Iowa couched his prayer in terms I've never heard before: God's own reputation is at stake in this election, he said, because so many Muslims, Hindus and Buddhists around the world are praying for an Obama victory that if Obama wins, they'll think "their god is bigger" than the Christian god."
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

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wakeup:

Has anybody polled the Arab community? I know who Khalid al-Mansour is voting for...

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MNLatteLiberal:

LOL, did you read the latest news item on the right side of the board?

"21:48 McCain says he's "a leader for troubled times"

That is almost verbatim Alice Cooper's slogan when he was running to replace the impeached AZ Governor Meecham back in the late '80s:

"A troubled man for troubled times".

Too funny, if just a coincidence. But McCain WAS THERE during that time, right there in Phoenix, AZ, wrapping up his Keating 5 dealings. Too damn funny.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Now there is a great bar. Alice Cooperstown in Phoenix, I don't know if you've ever been there MN but it is a great place to go before a ballgame.

On a more desperate note I was checking on 538.com and I ran across the picture at the top of the page. Yuck! I can't believe that this is where we are at in 2008. It seems like we've lost 40 years of progress in the last 4 weeks.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

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OneAngryDwarf:

@MNLatteLiberal

BTW nice Don Quixote reference in the other forum. Do you really think that the Repub crowd that gathers here would get such a subtle reference?

Eh who cares, kudos.

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slinky:

Frontline airs tomorrow night; crashed jets and freshman senator with warts and all.

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Mike_in_CA:

woah, when did Florida turn dark blue!? I thought McCain had Florida all locked up just a month or so ago...

muahaha ;)

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carl29:

Is boomshak around? I think that the drudge's got news for him:

"ZOGBY TUESDAY: OBAMA 49%, MCCAIN 43%... DEVELOPING..."

ZOGBY MONDAY: OBAMA 48%, MCCAIN 44%, wow, no doubt that Obama is losign ground by the second :-)!!!

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Ulysses:

Florida has swaying very solidly toward Obama for at least 3 weeks. Though I have to say what's more amazing is West Virginia and North Carolina (not to mention Nevada and Virginia). If McCain wants back in the race, he has to make sure at least NC and Virginia stay in his column. To do that, he has to unleash a smarter and more aggressive ground war, to counteract Obama's seemingly endless stream of campaign workers going door to door. Since they don't have the numbers, they have got to deploy as many college-aged Republicans from the South ASAP... to balance out Obama's army... or a gigantic loss is within their grasp.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@carl_29

I can't bring myself to go to Drudge, did you happen to see if he was able to peek at the Ras Polls for tomorrow?

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carl29:

OneAngryDwarf,

Yeah, I know what you mean about "bringing yourself to go 'there.'" About Rasmussen? NOTHING!!!!

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Maxtion:

Another Portlander here, I can confirm that I have yet to see a single McCain/Palin yard sign, and a local grocery store at one point had a giant sign that said "Oregon

I can only blame non-Portlanders for the fact McCain has more than 5%!

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OR Native:

I've lived in Oregon all my life (5th generation Oregonian in fact), and I can firmly attest that Oregon is not a "swing" state and hasn't been for a long time -- longer than most people might assume. I am surprised, however, by how far it has swung away from McCain. My prediction back when Obama was still mopping up in the primaries was that in the general election Oregon would break +7 for Obama. Now, barring the unexpected, it looks like I'll be way off.

Oregon's population is increasingly concentrated in urban areas along the Interstate 5 corridor and Bend/Redmond area, is increasing more quickly than the overall US population, has a high percentage of people who don't associate themselves with a religion, the economy is increasingly high-tech, is increasingly service oriented (as opposed to being based on forest products and agriculture), the state has an increasing reputation for environmental awareness and managed growth, and has a long history of environmental stewardship. These trends are not positive for the Republican party as it presently defines itself.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Wow Florida really does have a fetching shade of blue these days. Now we just need to see a matching shade in CO and VA.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@OR Native

Yeah I remember it being like that 12+ years ago when I lived in Portland. There was always the rural areas where logging brought out the occasional Republican but most of the I-5 was very progressive.

I really like living there now that I think about it. I wish more of the country was like Oregon.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@1Angry,
TY, amigo. If I am ever in AZ, I have a ton of friends to visit and that will undoubtedly be accompanied by "mass quantities" (gawd, I miss the original SNL!), so any bar recommendation is most welcome.

And I know what you mean by RedState. I love trolling SayAnytingBlog, the home of ND Republican party. If I had even a hint of ambition, I'd take credit for the results of today's ND poll. LMAO.

As to the literary references, I write for my own entertainment. It is a way to blow off steam after a day building socialism. I really do not care what the right wingers think. Methinks you can relate.

Btw, I knew a couple of optics profs when I was at the U. One of them was running the mirror/lens lab under the stadium. My wife and I have been to his house a couple of times, and his 14 yo (at the time) son kicked my ass in an racquetball tournament in that health club on Broadway by the U. Oh, and his graduate student, who was in no way qualified to get a doctorate, ended up writing a book called "In Search of Schroedinger's Cat", which is a great read, I will submit to you. Almost as much fun as Dirk Gently's take on the issue. But I digress into obscure literature references.


I am in a SUCH A GOOD MOOD RIGHT NOW! I need two tablespoons of boomshack to bring me back to earth. No, take that back. Boom has only made me happier and happier ever since I began posting on this site. Boom, I feel a hug coming on! I am going to hug my wife, but I am thinking of you!


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cinnamonape:

Man...wakeup...must be like Rip Van Winkle. That "Khalid al-Mansour" story was discredited well over a month back. Obama didn't know 80-year old and very ill Sutton (who was a precinct politician in New York...when Obama was in Chicago), and Mansour says that he never new OF Obama until 4 years ago when he read his book. He's never met him.

In addition Obama was on loans and financial aid when he went to Harvard Law...he was not out soliciting scholarships from folks like Mansour. Precisely why Mansour would have asked Sutton to write a letter for Obama to Harvard, when financial aid and loans do not require any sort of "letters of recommendation" establishes just how bogus this accusation really is.

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OR Native:

> I really like living there now that I think about it. I wish more of the country was like Oregon.

I also wish more of the country could be like Oregon. Then maybe fewer people would move here. ;-)

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MNLatteLiberal:

I don't know how up any of you are on your dailyKos (I know I haven't had the time to read, and some of you are simply amazing with your sources and awareness), but here is a must-read that summarizes Palin's connections to the domestic terrorists quite nicely:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/12/13228/301

A lot of it has been mentioned already (her husband's connection to the separatist Alaska Independence Party), but this is a great summary with some info I had not seen before.

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Basil:

I live in Oregon, too, and I'm proud to help end the hegemony of the GOP Masters of the Universe types. They are going down.

Eugene feels like 90/10 for Obama, but there's a real world out there, I'm told.

Obama Tsunami!

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Basil:

@wakeup

WAKE UP!

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bmrKY:

"wakeup:
Orange24 watches Maddow... now every time I read Orange24 I will picture Rachel Maddow."

You really are a sad little freak, boom/sleep.

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burrito:

I am speechless!! and after seeing that FL is dark blue on the Pollster map ... I can only say:

Hasta la vista, McCain!!

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Mike In Maryland:

wakeup (or is it actually boomshat?) said...
"Has anybody polled the Arab community?"

Would it do any good for McShame?

According to NewsMax:
"Almost half of the Arabs in the United States live in five states -- California (190,890), New York (120,370), Michigan (115,284), New Jersey (71,770) and Florida (77,461)."

NewsMax didn't say when those stats were determined, but checking with the US Census Bureau, they are the 2000 Census figures.

Let's see. According to Pollster.com's current indications:
California is going for Obama 53.4 to 39.6
New York is going for Obama 57.7 to 36.3
Michigan is going for Obama 49.3 to 42.7
New Jersey is going to Obama 50.4 to 42
Florida is going for Obama 51.2 to 44.4

Not enough Arabs in any of those states to blame for McShame's loss.

Maybe there's some hope in states with the highest percentage of Arab populations?

Michigan at 1.16%
New Jersey at 0.85%
Massachusetts at 0.83%
Rhode Island at 0.67%
New York at 0.63%
Virginia at 0.58%
California at 0.56%
New Hampshire at 0.55%
District of Columbia at 0.54%
Florida at 0.48%

With the leads that Obama has in each of those states (and DC), it doesn't look like the Arab population will make much of a difference in the vote totals.

Maybe if you find some way to knock off the Arabs in Ohio, though, it might make a difference. They are 0.48% of Ohio's population, but that doesn't mean they are 0.48% of the registered voters.

Try being racist against some other group, wakeup, boomshat, or whoever you are. It won't work with blaming the A-Rabs for McShame's defeat.

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