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"Outliers" for 11-30


Andrew Sullivan sees a flaw in the composition of the Hunter College survey of gay, lesbian and bisexual voters (more here).

Jay Carney crunches the Rasmussen second choice numbers in Iowa.

Jennifer Agiesta looks at how likely Iowa caucus goers rate the importance of various issues and finds only an issue on which one candidate "break[s] out from the pack as the one voters' trust most: Sen. Hillary Clinton on health care."

Jay Cost looks at how the ratings for this week's CNN/YouTube debate stacks up against the other debates this year.

Joe Klein has a first person account of a Frank Luntz debate "dial group" in Florida.

Jonathan Martin and Charles Babbington report that the curtain is rising on "Act Three" of the Republican IA/NH primary campaigns.

Doug Schoen asks who benefits most from a Huckabee surge in Iowa.

AAPOR's Nancy Mathiowetz considers the need for greater disclosure in the context of the controversial Zogby internet poll.

And you've probably seen this already, but The Caucus reports that the Clinton campaign "polled" the impact of a Barbara Streisand endorsement (via Sullivan and many others).

 

Comments
Patrick McLaughlin:

Carney's observation's important. But it's kind of useless since there's no breakdown of the preferences.

With the three leading candidates each holding onto something around a quarter of the vote, we're not likely to see their supporters having to go with their second choices. So the question becomes... WHO do the supporters of Richardson, Kucinich, Gravel, Biden and Dodd (did I miss any?) go to? It's implausible to imagine that they're distributed randomly. It's implausible, as well, to think that they generally resemble the preference of the overall caucus-goers (I'd bet good money that many of those who say Edwards is their second choice are Obama supporters).

What one really wants is a look at the preferences of the voters who support the third tier candidates (there aren't any second tier candidates at this point).

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Andrew:

It's yet to be seen how Giuliani's numbers will vary after revelations that us New Yorkers were paying for his mistress, her friends, and her family's transportation.

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