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Articles and Analysis

 

"Outliers" for 7/26


Kathy Frankovic looks at the "experience gap" in foreign policy but wonders if it will matter.

Jon Cohen notes growing awareness that Barack Obama is a Christian.

Kyle Dropp reviews polls of Germans showing negativity toward the U.S. but a preference for Obama.

Alan Abramowitz examines the daily tracking polls , Gallup's data on swing states and joins Thomas Mann and Larry Sabato in decrying "The Myth of a Toss-up Election."

John Sides questions the clamied McCain gains in this week's Quinnipiac polls.

Marc Ambinder posts new data on independent voters from Alex Gage and Alex Lundry.

Chris Bowers sees Nader and Barr hurting McCain more than Obama.

David Hill says politicians of both parties are ignoring polls on energy policy.

Mark Mellman sees George Bush "sticking his toe into the mainstream of American public opinion on national security."

Gary Langer revisits the 2004 Dempsey-Shapiro survey on the partisan affiliation of the active duty military.

David Park says uncertain voters perceive little difference between Obama and McCain on the economy.

Political scientist Dan Hopkins quantifies (pdf) the Wilder effect (via Sides).


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Comments
marctx:

The liberals are shaking in their boots and scratching their heads. All of this analysis would be true if democrats had not chosen this candidate. He's more liberal than Dukakis and Carter. Those guys lead in the polls at this time too. Wait until Obama snubs the Hillary supporters with his VP pick and looses ground in the east if he picks a westerner or looses ground in the mid west if he picks an easterner. Then wait until he gets creamed by McCain like Hillary creamed him in the debates. Then wait until the 527s rip him to shreds. Gonna be fun to watch.

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marctx:

Oh, but I'll concede if none of that happens of course he's got it in the bag with turnout and Bush's low approval rating.

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Mike:

marctx - Obama was not regularly creamed in the debates (once or twice but out of 20 debates). McCain was also not a great debater -you need Huckabee for that.
Lets see if McCain looses ground with the religious right if he picks Mormon Romney or if he picks Mid-Western Pawlentry and then by your logic he would lose ground in the east.

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Bruce Moomaw:

Does anyone seriously think that Nader will draw any more this time (for no apparent reason) than the 0.4% he got in 2004? Most of his followers abandoned him after it became clear that he had deliberately sabotaged the democratic process in the 2000 election out of nothing more than personal egomania and spite.

As for Barr, he might do a little better -- he does represent something genuinely new in this year's election, at a point when a lot of libertarian right-wingers have become disgruntled with the Iraq War and Bush's authoritarian tendencies. But I'd still be surprised to see him get much more than 1%. I think neither of these guys will have any significant impact, since the odds (as always) are much against the race being as close as the 2000 one was.

Oh, and to say that Obama is a more competent campaigner than Dukakis and Carter is the understatement of the century -- not to mention the tiny fact that the GOP is tremendously more unpopular right now than it was in the 1980 and 1988 elections.

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marctx:

Mike: & Bruce Moomaw: Clearly Obama is a better campaigner than those guys but we have to wait and see if American buys it. She didn't cream him in all the debates but won the last two. McCain did pretty good against Romney. It's a toss up. If Obama wins the debates he is almost a sure win this election. I think the VP picks are more important this year than any recent election. It's really hard to predict until they happen. I think McCain will pick Romney but I have the same concern. I like Huckabee better, but it seams clear he won't pick him. Huckabee was a master on stage. Love the guy except his sniper comments. Huckabee is the Bill Clinton of the republican party. You can't help but be entertained by him. Love him. The next few months will be interesting.

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brambster:

What's wrong with being a Liberal?

Should we abandon the ideals of protecting people's privacy and other rights of individuals and efforts to promote equality???

Republicans have been very successful since the 60's at bringing in so many different groups that do not share the same greedy interests as their corporate- and rich-favoring policies. They do this by being divisive and promoting the spread of un-democratic ideals such as racism, forcing evangelical beliefs into government policy and therefore public life, dropping taxes without dropping spending or otherwise offsetting costs, scaring people with bogus threats of terrorism, and going to war for a combination of idealism and political advantage and promoted through pure propaganda.

By in large, this country will fail if it doesn't figure out the difference. I doubt that most Republicans even know what being a conservative even means because it has been so mixed up in their wedge-style politics.

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cinnamonape:

Gallup shows that Obama now leads 48%-40% and R2000 (even though they showed a whole series of Red State polls showing Obama losing support THERE) now has him up 51%-40% Nationally vs. McCain (though Barr and Nader got about 2% each).

Both show strong trends and corroborate each other.

So is this a result of Obama consolidating supporting Blue and Battleground States...or McCain simply gaining more support in heavily red states? Or is Obama truly getting a bounce since his Middle East and European tours? Or both?

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sequioa:

marktx:

People like you crack me up! Are you looking at the same map I am? Obama is kicking McCain's butt!

He's winning ALL the Kerry states, plus OH, IA and NM. If just that holds, it's President Obama right there. Actually, he doesn't even need to win all 3 of those.

But he's got Plan B, C and D. Obama has dramatically closed the gap to within striking distance or overtaken McCain in VA, FL, MO, NC, IN, MT, ND, CO, AZ and NV. You don't think he'll win *any* of those? Pu-leeze!

Gallup has only called it wrong two times from it's July polling, and they have Obama up by 8. That's huge.

Obama is crushing McCain in every region but the South, and there it's just a 2-point difference.

Things can and will change, but nobody buys your fake confidence. Obama is a clearly a moderate to anybody not to the right of Mussolini and VPs have never changed anything.

But keep pretending if it makes you feel better about your dud candidate.

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