Articles and Analysis


"Outliers" for April 11

Topics: 2008 , Frank Newport , Gallup , George Bush , John McCain , Kathy Frankovic , Pollster , Steve Lombardo

Bill McInturff will rejoin the McCain campaign as pollster, along with Ed Goeas and Linda DiVall (via Ambinder, see also Martin and Murray).

Kathy Frankovic sees little evidence of a "Limbaugh Effect" in exit polls.

Frank Newport considers the sources of George Bush's 28% approval rating (the number from the most recent Gallup poll and Charles Franklin's trend estimate).

Tom Holbrook illustrates the record of statewide polls in March, April May and June 2004 in predicting results in November.

Chuck Todd (citing Republican pollster Steve Lombardo) says John McCain holds a "faux lead" in national polls.

Will Marshall sees a security gap holding back the Democrats against John McCain.

Alan Abramowitz and Ruy Teixeira consider the political implications of a shrinking working class.

Paul Begala has "nothing but contempt" for Mark Penn.

Michael Crowley sees parallels between Mark Penn and Dick Morris.

The Harvard Crimson remembers Mark Penn's work as a pollster at Harvard and notes that both Penn and Geoff Garin covered politics for Crimson (via Ambinder).

Brian Schaffner plots Walmart and Pick-Up trucks by state to see how Pennsylvania compares.



Chuck Todd is to political predictions what Britney Spears is to child safety.

In early 2006, Todd predicted that if Nancy Pelosi became Speaker of the House in November of that year, Bush's approval would bounce to 50% by July 4th, 2007 (See video). The result? Bush approval was in the low 30's by Todd's deadline.
Todd, of course volunteered no explanations as to how he came to that conclusion; much like he shows no evidence to back up his theory that McCain's national lead will evaporate greatly once the Democratic Nominee is elected, other than the fact that a pollster said so.

Didn't it occur to Todd that once Obama is officially crowned as Democratic nominee, the traditionally pro-Republican media--that gave us George W. Bush twice plus the Iraq war-- will stop attacking its favorite punching bag Hillary Clinton and will concentrate their efforts in destroying Barack Obama?

Does Todd and his buddy the pollster have data on past elections where one party had its nominee chosen much earlier than the other party's nominee? If so, what occured immediately after the lagging party chose a candidate?

These are questions that are needed if we want to analyze the issue; but Todd has a blog to write and TV shows to attend, so he needs to come up with something to talk about.



oh the heck with chuck todd. he polishes chris mathew's furniture for him. you gotta go to the potty when he harumphs platitudes.

let's get down and dirty.. cause the polls will either jig and jag over the 'bitter' comment or they wont. all i have to say is.. Glass house baby!!!

i guess the pampered prince of prattle AKA obama, must be awfully bitter himself, needing to vent as he has for, um, twenty plus years at the stomping feet of Jeremiah Wright. guess he was real bitter about being a legacy at harvard, tough break kiddo, such that he had to take the tapes with him and keep that bitterness alive and well! made him sleep easier.

it must've been hell pulling a tres ordinaire cumulative average and making law review anyway. editor yet!! bitter, heartbreaking, get the kid some zantac, make that super strength.

and darn it.. guess he must have been bitter about not getting adequate housing in a nice uppity up scale development. so he had to have good ole boy tony slice and dice the price for him. darn, does the heartbreak never quit! and still, sadly, the frustration was building and he needed to prime Jeremiah's jeremiads. I feel for ya, baby. the pain of it all.

and that one itty bitty set back when you lost that one itty bitty election that one itty bitty time. yikes, buy those one way tickets to liberia. nah, on second thought, run for president by being not present for major legistlation, getting chewed out by Dodd and Kennedy for your arrogance and lack of preparation and ....still getting a pass from them. Wow, how do you do it? Bitter. Frustrating. Ten more hosannas for Jesus, Wright and of course, yourself, the pied piper of hysterical teens, misogynist males, and white guilt flagellates.

AND - What ever happened to Rezko? Big media no wanna cover ugly mean story? they certainly would if miss Hillary had pocketed the difference to get a house like yours... tough luck, tall lanky guy with all those nice breaks, did you know you're the affirmative action candidate? you get a pass when others would get a fail.

i mean really, to think you get a pass from all the pundits and super delegates because they feel for your bitterness, your tough breaks boy. they understand, (sob) how you have needed to channel all this bilious frustration by embracing rabble rousing church-ifying mean speak, gangsters, and deep cover lobbyists on k street.

man, we dig your anger. we give you a pass too. peace out.



Ismack...you sound like a Nixon speechwriter on acid.

When Obama was talking about people feeling bitter he wasn't referring to himself. As he made quite clear he's referring to all those folks that live in once economically thriving industrial towns and cities, those who are losing their homes to foreclosure, who hear that their jobs are being exported to India or Myanmar, who have to go to usurious moneylenders to obtain enough money to make the rent and food payments. Those who see their kids priced out of college, or have to go into debt bondage to afford it, and those that have seen their Constitution treated like a piece of toilet paper have a right to be bitter.

Obama realizes that he's done pretty well for himself, given his background. But there are a lot of Americans out there that ARE bitter. And maybe politicians should realize that it's not a bed of roses. Hillary seems to think that people are simply "concerned"...no they are angry.

Is this the same Hillary that tells the tales of people who die after they are denied medical care because they don't have insurance? She doesn't think that the womans family isn't bitter about that? Maybe Hillary's tears are just crocodilian?



@cinnamon ape

thank you. i take it you understood the lead in: glass house? for those with obvious comprehension issues, here's a grade 5 take on it:

obama the great has kindly stated his understanding that bitter people vent their frustrations in church, partisanship, and zenophobia.

i was drawing the obvious connection between his need to vent for 20 years in his own
highly idiosyncratic church just like the bitter people he describes.

taking a leaf from his book, i am merely suggesting that he falls into the same category of 'bitter'. i do hope you comprehend the post now. best of luck in further reads. i'll try and dumb it down next time.



Oh, I do now understand...Troll



name calling is specifically what has turned so many against obama. you assume i am a plant from the other camp merely because i do not think the best of your candidate.

i would say, that in all my posts i have never resorted to low down nasty comments like you and others cast at others with opposing views. and if the best you can come up with is infantile bully tactics then all i have to say is go for it.

you are hardly representing your candidate in a good light when you do this. in fact, you give the lie to his grandiosity by stooping so low.

i merely suggest that before casting stones, you read posts carefully. had you done so, you would have understood that obama et al are no different than the folks he superciliosuly analyzes. that despite all his largess both from the media, legacy, and iconic stature, he still felt the need to vent in a marginalizing church.

that he vents is normal. why he vents is what needs further explanation. notice, i have not called you a name. nor will i stoop so low. that is your imprimatur.



Let's talk about polls or the "outlers" posted in the original thread. If you are going to argue, argue about those things.


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