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"Outliers" for April 2

Topics: Barack Obama , Bradley , Frank Newport , Gary Langer , Kathy Frankovic , Mark Mellman

Gary Langer averages airworthy national polls and considers coverage problems in a "global" poll.

Kathy Frankovic pays homage to Phil Meyer's contribution and ponders the future of polls and journalism.

Frank Newport sees little change in patterns of voting by religion.

David Hill thinks John McCain wants to run against Barack Obama.

Mark Mellman warns against March polls to forecast November elections.

Anthony Greenwald expounds on "Bradley" and "Reverse Bradley" effects.

Noam Scheiber links to Greenwald and takes some due credit.

Seelye and Bosman provide some historical context on Democratic defectors (via Schaffner).

 

Comments
kingsbridge77:

Looking back at a comparable time in 2000, we can see that polls showed mixed results: some had Gore up, while most had Bush up by a 3-7% margin:

# Bush 45 to Gore 40 (Marist College April 3-5).
# Bush 46 to Gore 42 (Zogby April 1-4).
# Bush 44 to Gore 42 (Fox News/Opinion Dynamics March 22-23).
# Bush 47 to Gore 42 (Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates March 21-23).
# Bush 49 to Gore 42 (CBS News March 19-21).
# Bush 46 to Gore 43 (Hotline Bullseye poll conducted by the polling company (R) and Global Strategy Group (D) March 16-19).
# Gore 47 to Bush 46 (Washington Post/ABC News, March 30-April 2).
# Gore 49 to Bush 43 (Pew Research for the People and the Press by the Princeton Survey Research Associates March 15-19).
# Bush 48 to Gore 44 (Tarrance Group, Lake Snell Perry and Associates, Battleground Survey March 12-13).
# Bush 45 to Gore 42 (Zogby/Reuters/WHDH-TV March 8-10).
# Bush 49 to Gore 43 (Gallup/CNN/USA Today March 10-12).
# Bush 47 to Gore 44 (Newsweek poll conducted by the Princeton Survey Research Associates March 9-10).
# Gore 46 to Bush 45 (ABC News/Washington Post March 9-11).
# Gore 46 to Bush 43 (CNN/Time poll conducted by Yankelovich Partners March 8-9).

http://dir.salon.com/story/politics2000/feature/2000/04/04/presidentialpolls

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