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"Outliers" from the IN/PA and Beyond

Topics: 2008 , Barack Obama , CBS/New York Times , Hillary Clinton , Kathy Frankovic , SurveyUSA

[I fell behind a bit on his feature over the last hectic week, so some of these are a little stale].

Kathy Frankovic considers the reasons for conflicting national numbers from CBS/NYT and Gallup earlier this week (see also my post on this topic); last week she had a terrific review of how question order can affect survey results.

Carl Bialik revisits the primary math post IN/NC and considers Brian Schaffner's superdelegate projection model.

CJR's Clint Hendler takes an in-depth look at the various popular vote counts.

David Hill says "every superdelegate can find one survey that confirms the outcome he or she intuitively prefers for the Obama-Clinton fight.

Jay Cost crunches the exits from IN and NC

John Cohen finds that most Republicans voting in IN and NC express "little other than a sincere preference for Clinton over Obama."

Brian Schaffner notes that turnout in IN and NC "exceeded the number of votes Kerry won in the states in the general election"

Tom Schaller thinks Hillary could have done better among African Americans (via Smith).

PPP's Tom Jensen tips his hat to SurveyUSA's Jay Leve

 

Comments
kingsbridge77:

The most irrelevant comment I've seen here in a while: "Brian Schaffner notes that turnout in IN and NC "exceeded the number of votes Kerry won in the states in the general election".

What in the world does combined primary turnout have to do with Kerry turnout in a GE? Let me guess: Obama will turn Indiana and NC blue?

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goawaybillary:

Dear Senator Clinton,

New Math. Old Math. I don't think you you should drop out of the race. Here's some ideas.... You can filibuster the vote at the convention. You can cut off the electricity to the convention hall. You can fake a heart attack. You can take Chairwoman Pelosi hostage. You can take Sen. Obama hostage. You can go to court to enjoin the convention and have the primaries declared unconstitutional. You can continue to throw the kitchen sink and scorch the earth. You can cry. You can throw tantrums. You can tell more lies. You can crown yourself with the crown of Charlemagne, turn this democratic party upside down and inside out until you get your way...

Blow through your husband's funds and every other naive supporter's funds on this planet. God knows, this money is meant for you. To hell with the unfortunate New York souls that could desperately use financial support.

Corporate raider, Gordon Gekko said it simply in the movie Wall Street - "Greed is Good". Follow his playbook and continue to put your scruples, morals, values and ethics aside to win anyway you can.

You go get'em Tiger!

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goawaybillary:

Hillary versus Barack in the NBA finals.

Half-time: Hillary has been whistled for 5 fouls. Her supporters flood the NBA website: "Basketball is an American game, we can't have the same rules as foreigners, 10 fouls should be allowed before fouling out".

Second-half: The NBA doesn't change the rule but let's Stephanapoulis be the referee, so there are no more fouls on Hillary.

1 minute left in the game, Barack leading 100-82. Hillary: "I scored 10 straight baskets in warm-up. They should also count." Ref: "Barack wasn't guarding you when you made those baskets". Hillary: "He was on the floor, it is not my fault if he made a political decision to not guard me".

Commissioner: "Look basketball has rules and you have to play by them". Hillary: "Barack is winning under these rules but I am obviously the better player, so the rules must go".

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RS:

@kingsbridge77: Yes.

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Uri:

@RS: There is no sense assuming anything about GE vote from primary outcome. After all, the republican turnout was fairly low, is NC now a blue state?

Because of the American winner takes all election system for the GEs. If you're a dem living in a red state, you may not even bother going to the polls in the GE if you know your candidate will not win (Kerry).

If you're a dem getting to the primary where the nominee has already been decided, you don't vote becuase it doesn't matter. But if this is your chance to seal the deal for Obama and every vote matters (because of the pop vote count), you'd go.

Even if the dems get every primary voter for either HRC or BHM in NC, they will still handily lose that state.

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goawaybillary:

Uri,

Let me refute your argument real quick:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May08.html

Pay particular attention to Florida, and IN. If have learned anything this election season, it should be the fact that you should never ever underestimate Obama's power of garnering new support. He is only behind by 9 points against mccain in NC...right now. remember the polls underestimated his support greatly in the primary just now. just wait til the general....many pollsters are going to have some splaining to do. obama will pick up the following by my predictions: IA, NM, NC, SC, VA, IN, OH, FL, MO, NE, CO. That's turning a butt-load of red states blue. In addition to the regular blue staes, I see him winning easily against mccain.

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RS:

@Uri:
One-word answers are supposed to be simplistic. D'uh!

The larger point is that primary voters are *always* a fraction of the GE turnout. So the current turnout speaks to the enthusiasm among Democrats. Back in 2004, folks *knew* Kerry would lose NC and IN. So people, as you say, didn't turn out.
2008... we'll see. A long way to go yet.

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cinnamonape:

Well, kingsbridsge...if you's bothered to actually read Schaffner's post you'd find that he's talking about only the Democratic turnout in the Primary. THOSE numbers (not the Republican portion...which only drew about 20% of what the Democratic half did...with a still sizeable 20% of Republicans opposing McCain) are far greater than what Kerry received in the General.

In addition, Schaffner also points out that when you subtract the 10% Republican cross-over (identified by exit polls) the number STILL exceeds Kerry's share in the General election.

I'd also point out that the number of Clinton voters (and most of those self-identified Republicans voted for Clinton...thus making up to 20% of her support) that said they wouldn't vote for Obama in the General election was about 25%. Some of those may vote for McCain, others may simply not vote, and some may bite their lip and vote for Obama.

Lemme see...25%-20% (Republican crossover) = 5% Defection Rate. Now it may very well be that some of those defectors aren't Republicans, but Democrats...in which case the Republicans lose potential votes and Obama would gain them.

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