Pollster.com

The Midwest and Northeast are crammed with PA-12 like districts. 55% of these voters are Democrats and yet they're backing the GOP. Huuuge huuuge swing.

Not really. This district went to McCain in 2008, its not surprising to see it be competitive in a special election like this.

Since there are posters here predicting that the Democrats will gain seats in November because of the Dems fired up(!) by Obamacare, I'd think they'd do a little better than a seat they've held for more than a generation.

This has always been a fairly competitive area. The Cook PVI for this county is R+1, so technically it's GOP leaning. That said, the poll shows Critz is certainly in striking distance, as the MOE is about 3% and they're separated by 4%. Seems like a tight race, especially considering that 15% had no opinion yet.

Do you know how popular Obamacare is? It's soooo popular that the DEM candidate is running against it. Basically, he's running as a Blue Dog. I'm sure Obama and Moveon.org will get their lapdogs firedup (!) and support Critz.

I don't see much chance of Critz picking up much from this point on since his favorable is only 41%, Obama's is only 33%, and Pelosi's is only 24%. All Burns has to do is keep repeating, "Pelosi/Obama" until the election and will take it by at least a 10 point margin. Being a blue dog democrat this year doesn't help. The liberals are mad at the blue dogs and won't come out to vote for them. The other voters don't pay any attention to "blue dog" - all they see is democrat/pelosi/obama.

This seat is going and this it has more to do with Obama than Burns vs. Critz. I remember when NY-20 was polled Obama had a 65% approval rating in the district in the Siena poll. I knew that one was going blue. This district has Obama with a horrific 33% approval rating. In addition, this district is trending red. Gore won it by 11, Kerry won it by 2 and Obama lost it by 1. Likely results will be Burn 52% Critz 48%.

On the upside for the Dems, this is a PPP poll! Remember the last time PPP polled a congressional district? LMAO!

How can this be? Dem after Dem said this would not happen after HCR was passed.

Get used to this....in a few more months many blue seats will be swapping to red. We saw the uber liberal FL 19 give a 6 point bounce to the GOP....now the GOP is taking this seat held by the Dems forever.

I think the trend is obvious and clear to everyone...and its across the board.

Not bad polls considering how racist and anti-Obama this district is. They actually voted for Kerry in 2004 and voted against Obama in 2008

Farleft this district is not racist at all, they've been trending republican for years. If there is any hatred of Obama among Dems there it has to do with their annoyance with Obama getting the nomination over Hillary. People are aggrivated and they have every right to be aggrivated.

Stillow, I think the Republicans should be doing a lot better than they are here according to some of the poll numbers of Obama and Pelosi. According to you, they should be winning districts like this by a landslide but they aren't. Voters have a problem with the republicans as much as the democrats if not more.

This racist B.S. is just getting stupid. There are way too many other reasons to oppose Obama than his race.

What about that 24% approval for Pelosi. Is that racism too? Doe people in this district hate her because she is a white woman?

Or is it possibly that this is about something more than race? That crutch has been broken into splinters. Time to find a new defense for Obama than racism.

Geeee, farleft calls an entire district racist just because they support a republican.....how original....wonder how long it took him to come up wih that one.

This race crap the left pulls is getting so old and boring.

CHRIS MERKEY: - The seat was held by a Dem for decades....its not easy to just switch all of a sudden. For the GOP to be leading is quite remarkable on its face....despit the district trending GOP....they are going to flip a seat that has been blue forever. Combine that with what happend in VA, NJ, MA....and even FL 19 where the GOP saw a fairly strong bounce in support in a ultra liberal area of FL. All signs point to exactly what the GOP hoped.

Vultures are swarming on house districts that are feeling the backlash of HCR but the Vultures only pick the house races that suit their fancy. Ignore any house race a democrat wins! Irrelevant!

Anyone who is the slightest bit familiar with politics knows that open races are much much closer than a race involving an incumbent.

The district has had a tendancy towards racism. I didn't say that Republicans were racist or this GOP candidate who I have never seen is racist. Not everyone in the district is.

It was actually Murtha himself who said that not me, during a Palin rally in a town in this part of PA. If anyone lives in this district or near there, I am not meaning any one person.

I can't single this district out and there are racist angry people all over the US. New York City and Boston probably have just as high of a percentage of them as this district Murtha represented.

"The district has had a tendancy towards racism."

And what the hell are you basing that on? Liberal based hatred? What basis do you have to sit there and say that a district has a tendancy toward racism?

I am so sick of the liberals slamming this racist crap around like it means nothing. It is vile and disgusting and it is one of the reason that the dems will lose the house this year. Yes people are angry. Liberals keep calling them racists, nazis, and anarchists. Gee - I wonder why they're angry?

Gary, FL&P are using this tactic....
http://i651.photobucket.com/albums/uu231/firewaller/shout_racist.jpg.

Its quite pathetic but not out of the realm of most liberals.

Look I'm also somewhat liberal and believe me there are a lot of racists in this country but it is a rediculous statement to call this republican district racist because a republican is leading in this poll. I've been to this district and believe me no one there is racist. It has been trending republican for years and thus it should be no shock that a republican is leading in the polls. Actually 3 polls last year showed Russell competitive against Murtha despite it being a democratic year. I can gurantee you if Deval Patrick loses re-election this November Farleft will be screaming, Massachusetts is racist. Well, I can tell you I've always voted democrat but will not be voting for Deval this time because he has been a awful governor and it would be in everyone's best interest for him to no longer be there. Does that make me a racist? NO!