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PA: 2010 Dem Primaries (Muhlenberg 5/11-14)

Topics: Governor , Pennsylvania , Senate

Muhlenberg
5/11-14/10; 427 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Muhlenberg Release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
44% Specter, 43% Sestak (chart)

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
38% Onorato, 14% Williams, 11% Wagner, 10% Hoeffel (chart)

 

Comments
djneedle83:

If the pa dems nominate specter they better hope that toomey let's his inner santorum out in public. I still see sestak by 1-2 points because having bob dole part deux on the stump is bad for pa.

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tjampel:

In what still looks like a bad year for Dems they are VERY fortunate that Republicans seem to have nominated candidates who are completely wrong for those particular electorates. Let me elaborate a bit:

Take KY, PA, NV, CA.
My guess is that Dems will win two of these contests, but have a decent (maybe 50%) chance of winning 3. This should never happen this year. In fact, if you could move any particular candidate from one state to the other Repubs would actually have a good shot at winning all 4!

Here's why:

Take PA first. Either Dem is very vulnerable now. A strong Republican can win this race. But, given the older and more moderate electorate in PA, that Republican needs to be one who reassures older voters about their Social Security and Medicare. Toomey's past statements on this issue won't do this. Toomey's National Tax won't endear him to people on fixed incomes either. I think he's too vulnerable on these bread and butter issues for older moderates to win. It's not about Sestak or Specter winning this race based on their own issues or vision or ideology, so much as it's about either one finding an effective negative strategy to make Toomey look too extreme for the voters of PA; I think there's a clear glide path for doing just that. I expect to see Toomey's negatives go up as soon as the battle is joined for the General.

On the other hand Toomey's ideology, style, and images would play just fine in NV, where no Republican candidate has emerged who is capable of articulating a coherent conservative ideology as well as him. In NV the "Club for Growth" ideology fits in perfectly with the mood of the non-Hispanic and non-union segment of the state.

The fact that Reid might actually be let off the hook by Lowden becoming a self-parody and butt of late night talk show hosts, or by the rise of Tea Party favorite Angle, who (IMO) lacks the kind of credibility amongst non base voters that Toomey could muster in NV

Now who would I move to PA? The answer's obvious. Campbell! He'll fall short by single digits against Boxer, but he would win PA pretty easily, I think. He's not a Dem, he's moderate, he's clean.

Rand Paul is the absolute worst choice imaginable for KY. Almost any generic Republican would beat Conway or Mongiardo; but Paul is not that. I've posted before on this multiple times so you know my views about this. Paul's too threatening for the Gov't benefits-friendly/risk-averse/change-averse, US Military-supporting citizens of KY.

So where would Rand have a shot? CA, of course. Not that he'd win, but his kind of libertarianism would have a chance to play out there in a far less constrained way. He could come out for legalization of Pot, for example, along with withdrawal from Iraq and Afhganistan, and end to Gov't wiretapping and interception of cell phone calls of US citizens without probably cause, etc. He might build some real momentum as the ideas candidate in a race with an entrenched incumbent.

Where does that leave KY? Well....maybe Sue Lowden, with her chickens (OK....her barter meme) would play just find in a state where there probably is quite a bit of that going on. KY is a mainly rural state, especially the east. She'd probably be able to win in KY.

Anyway...thanks Repubs for giving Dems the best shots in these states. It could have been far worse.

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Obamafan:

If women show up, Specter might pull through this primary. According to the cross tabs., women are more supportive of Specter. Of course the undecideds will affect the numbers also. Appears to be a close race, but that remains to be seen.

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Farleftandproud:

If this were Lieberman running as a Republican, it would be a joke. He would probably drop out of the primary after a few weeks.

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