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PA: 2010 Dem Primaries (Muhlenberg 5/12-15)


Muhlenberg
5/12-15/10; 430 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Muhlenberg Release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
44% Specter, 44% Sestak (chart)

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
39% Onorato, 15% Williams, 10% Wagner, 9% Hoeffel (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Arlen Specter: 59 / 30
Joe Sestak: 51 / 18
Dan Onorato: 47 / 12
Jack Wagner: 24 / 13
Anthony Williams: 32 / 19
Joe Hoeffel: 22 / 12

 

Comments
jmartin4s:

GOTV will decide this one but a tie in my opinion goes to Specter. He has the all the dem machine, the Philly machine, and Ed Rendell working for him. I'm sticking with my original prediction 51 to 49 for Specter.

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StatyPolly:
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obamalover:

Nate Silver on the race.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/white-house-case-for-specter-support.html

"There's a good mechanism to explain the change: Sestak wasn't very well known before, but now he's becoming more so. We have to be a bit careful, though, because there's sometimes a bounce surrounding a primary battle than can later dissipate. (See also: Deeds, Creigh).

But if there's a bounce, why hasn't Specter received one? Instead, in the Quinnipiac poll, Specter's favorability ratings have dropped eight points among the November electorate.

Specter is not going to win very many votes among Republicans, the party which he deserted last year. Independents view him negatively: 30-58, in the Quinnipiac poll. The only way he's going to win (and it's a necessary rather than sufficient condition) is with monstrous, enthusiastic Democratic support.

So if that support is there, let's see it. Let's see him beat Joe Sestak, who is not an overwhelmingly brilliant candidate. Let's see if he can clear that hurdle. Democrats have benefited from his flip-flops -- in a clear and tangible way. If they're not going to get his back, then who do you think will?"

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Rockym92:

This is the most interested ive ever been for a primary day. We got 2 incumbents in close primaries in PA and AR, two close races for an open seat in KY and a very close house special election.

PPP will be releasing their PA-12 and KY primary polls later tonight. I suspect PPPs polls will be very close to the actual result.

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