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PA: 2010 Dem Primaries (Muhlenberg 5/10-13)


Muhlenberg
5/10-13/10; 416 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Muhlenberg Release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
45% Specter, 43% Sestak (chart)

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
39% Onorato, 14% Williams, 11% Hoeffel, 11% Wagner (chart)

 

Comments
jmartin4s:

Specter seems to be creeping back up, I'm going to stick to my prediction.
51% Specter
49% Sestak
The unions and the Philly machine usually determine who win primaries in PA and they are working hard for Specter. I think Sestak may have peaked too early and the I don't trust Suffolk after their 9 point lead for Corzine, that pollster has had too many bizarre outliers. Suffolk seems to be becoming the Mason Dixon of the northeast.

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tokar:

jmartin4s: a Research2000 poll will be out this morning showing Sestak up 2 on Specter. No word, until later this morning, how big the sample is: http://twitter.com/markos/statuses/13944789115

Based on previous R2K polls, I'm guessing the sample size will be around 600.

Suffolk was 400.
Muhlenberg is ~400, 100% every 4 days.
Quinnipiac was 945.
F&M College was 150.
Rasmussen was 481.

On a quick side note, Pollster won't be adding in the Muhlenberg poll in their chart until it is 5/13-5/16 (i.e. the May 17th release) so that there is 100% turnover. They added 5/1-5/4, 5/5-5/8, and 5/9-5/12.

I think Sestak will pull it out. I'll be voting for him, as well my parents and brother...my sister refuses to vote...lol.

As fast Eddie always puts it, to win PA you just have to do well in Pittsburgh and the five counties of SE PA and you are golden (Philadelphia, Delaware, Montgomery, Chester and Bucks). The problem is that Sestak's 7th CD resides mostly in Delaware County, and enthusiasm in Pittsburgh (as I hear) is pretty down on Specter.

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Paleo:

Why would the unions be working hard for Specter when he stabbed them in the back on EFCA, which Sestak supports? Just a rhetorical question.

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tokar:

R2K poll officially out: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/14/866125/-PA-Sen:-Sestak-takes-(statistically-insignificant)-lead

Sestak: 45
Specter: 43
Undecided: 12

Breakdown:
http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/5/12/PA/499

Specter: 52-38-11 (fav-unfav-und)
Sestak: 51-18-31 (31 und...wow)

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