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PA: 2010 Dem Primaries (Muhlenberg 5/7-10)

Topics: Governor , Pennsylvania , Primary elections , Senate

Muhlenberg
5/7-10/10; 401 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Muhlenberg Release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
47% Sestak, 43% Specter (chart)

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
33% Onorato, 15% Williams, 10% Hoeffel, 9% Wagner (chart)

 

Comments
jmartin4s:

Continueing on this subject, my major issue is that I would possibly be comfortable with an alternative to Specter if that alternative was not Joe Sestak. Why couldn't the progressive movement have drafted someone like Allyson Schwartz. Some one who people can grow to like not someone who turns people off with such a nasty attitude.

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Harry Enten:

If you compare Sestak and Specter's voting record using something called DW-Nominate scores (more on that tmmw), Specter's is actually slightly more liberal than Sestak since Specter became a Dem...

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jmartin4s:

My hope is that Sestak may have hit a brick wall at 47% and may not go beyond that. I'm assuming organized labor and all the unions including SEIU are working hard for the Specter camp.

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Obamafan:

This is very encouraging. It looks like Sestak is losing ground. Maybe that negative political ad that Sestak is running, is starting to wear thin on the voters. Hopefully this trend will continue throughout the week.

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StatyPolly:

Yeah, I am starting to lean Specter myself.

I figure, with the winds shifting as they are, it's won't be long before Arlen GOES BACK.

I'd guess GOP will forgive and forget his one time youthful indiscretion. Especially if they're stalemated at 50-50.

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I think that Specter's voting record since the switch would be a dubious method of measure. He really had little to choice but to toe the line lest he lose support for his primary. It is precisely Sestak's strength as a candidate that seems to have put the pressure squarely on Specter to remain loyal. To his current party at any rate.

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LordMike:

Marc Ambinder reports that Obama will NOT be campaigning for Specter.... that's a very ominous sign for the old man. It's clear that the WH thinks that Specter will lose.

There isn't really any tightening here. Sestak hasn't lost any ground, and the undecideds are shrinking. As for the unions, they are split in terms of who they support.

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LordMike:

Oh, and Specter voted against Obama's pick for the SCOTUS when she was confirmed for Solicitor General. That's not going to help!

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Obamafan:

I'm not sure that's a bad thing that Specter voted against Elena Kagan. There are many that believe she could move the court to the right and that she's weak on civil liberties.

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Farleftandproud:

The polls have shown high unfavorables for Specter for a long time. That is not a good sign.

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Paleo:

I can't believe the Democrats on here who want Specter to win. He is less progressive than Sestak and is less likely to beat Toomey. He was a Republican for over four decades, and an enabler of the most reactionary elements in politics and government. If it were not for him, and the hatchet job he did no Anita Hill, Clarence Thomas would likely not be on the Supreme Court. To support him boggles the mind.

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jmartin4s:

Paleo as I said before, I may be able to consider an alternative to Specter if the alternative wasn't so G-d awful. I can seriously not support anyone who would have that little respect for his campaign staff. In addition, I don't think Obama is campaigning for Specter not because he doesn't support him but because after what happened in Massachusetts and Virginia he is not in the mood to go down there and campaign and have the candidate lose another election and let the media have a field day with that. I wouldn't read too much into Obama's actions on this one.

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jmartin4s:

Here's Obama's ad for Arlen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs0cvwDLjow

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Field Marshal:

I would aqree with jmartin on this one. Obama not showing up has nothing to do with his lack of support for Specter. I think he will campaign for him in the fall if Specter wins; and even if Sestak wins.

Paleo,

Maybe some democrats are not far-left ideologues who want the most radical elements of their party to always win? Perhaps jmartin and others are more moderate and support centrist policies rather than the attack and hack style of the fringe left. How does that boggle the mind?

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Paleo:

How is Joe Sestak a "far-left ideologue"? And what makes Arlen Specter a Democrat, other than that he became one because he had no chance in the Republican primary?

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Field Marshal:

Exactly; its the same thing that makes Toomey are far-right ideologue.

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jmartin4s:

Paleo your ver politically astute but on this issue you miss some things. Specter was always left leaning as an R including the stimulus and other measure. The GOP in the senate usually though of him as being a big headache. His political philosophy was always similar to that of Lincoln Chafee or Jodi Rell. That's why he had no chance in the primary. If I lived in Pennsylvania and was old enough to vote in those elections, I probably would have voted for him despite him being an R and me being a liberal.

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Obamafan:

Arlen Specter has a stellar voting record on many issues important to the state of PA throughout the years. His accomplishments for Pennsylvanians are too numerous to list.

Sestak has been a congressman for under two years, and has skipped 127 votes. What would make you think that Sestak would be better than Specter? If I'm supporting a candidate, the least I expect from him to do is his job.

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obamalover:

@Obamafan

What fantasy world do you live in? Sestak is polling 47% and Specter is polling 42/43 % like they have in every poll.

Furthermore, Kagan wouldn't let military recruiters on campus because of DADT. Maybe in your little fantasy world she would shift the court to the right. LOL! Seems like you are trying to come up with the most ridiculous reasons to explain away Specter's poor voting record. This is called cognitive dissonance.

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Paleo:

Arlen Specter has always believe in only one thing: Arlen Specter. He made his bones by coming up with the magic bullet theory. He was a Democrat, but in 1965 he switched parties to run for Philadelphia DA because he was blocked by the Democratic machine. His finest hour was when ran for mayor in 1967 as the more progressive candidate. After that he moved right, and began running unsuccessful races for senator and governor. He caught lightening in a bottle in the Republican landslide of 1980. He opposed Bork in 1987 and supported Thomas in 1991 out of political calculation. There was no reason to oppose one but not the other.

His senate opponents have always been more progressive than him. In a political party that kept going further and further right, he appeared somewhat progressive. But he never was as progressive as people like Chafee, Jeffords and Weicker.

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Tom Williamson:

I'm a state employee and a member of SEIU. Our parent union is trying to force Specter down our throats, and the rank and file isn't buying him. Only a Democrat can speak for union families, and Specter/Toomey are not Democrats. I met Sestak in January when he was first started his campaign, I was impressed with his Democratic values back then and he's run a Democratic campaign. He'll win next Tuesday and again in November. I was impressed when he didn't cross file to keep his House seat. The DCCC has made a big mistake in this race, and Obama not coming to PA at this point tells me that they realize their mistake and will welcome Sestak with open arms next week after he wins the primary.

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Tom Williamson:

I'm a state employee and a member of SEIU. Our parent union is trying to force Specter down our throats, and the rank and file isn't buying him. Only a Democrat can speak for union families, and Specter/Toomey are not Democrats. I met Sestak in January when he was first started his campaign, I was impressed with his Democratic values back then and he's run a Democratic campaign. He'll win next Tuesday and again in November. I was impressed when he didn't cross file to keep his House seat as a backup. He also didn't make the administration's offer of becoming Secretary of the Navy to get out of the race a major issue in this race. The DCCC has made a big mistake in this race, and Obama not coming to PA at this point tells me that they realize their mistake and will welcome Sestak with open arms next week after he wins the primary.

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jmartin4s:

Tom do what your union boss tells you to do they know best hahaha.

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Farleftandproud:

It was pretty scary to look at the comparison in voting records between Toomey and some of the most partisan and contreversial conservatives ever like Jesse Helms, Tom Tancredo and Tom Coburn. It is almost an insult to PA that they would nominate someone like this. It would be like Minnesota nominating Michelle Bachmann for Governor.

PA I think of as a swing state like Ohio. Lots of universities, some large cities and suburbs that are more ctr/left, but also some extremely conservative areas. People like Tom Ridge, Jim Dewine, and Senator Voinovich seem more like a reasonable nominee.

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jmartin4s:

farleft thats MIKE Dewine not Jim

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Farleftandproud:

I could be wrong but I bet Joe Sestak's voting record would not be nearly as liberal as Toomey's is conservative. I doubt he would be as liberal as Feingold, Patty Murray, or Al Franken. I bet he would be more like Claire Mccaskill, Tom Carper in DE. or Diane Feinstein.

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