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PA: 2010 Sen-Specter 44, Toomey 44 (Quinnipiac 12/8-14)


Quinnipiac
12/8-14/09; 1,381 registered voters, 2.6% margin of error
588 Republicans, 4% margin of error
619 Democrats, 3.9% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

(Quinnipiac release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
Specter 53%, Sestak 30% (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
Specter 44%, Toomey 44% (chart)
Toomey 40%, Sestak 35% (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Arlen Specter (D): 43 / 45 (chart)
Pat Toomey (R): 35 / 10
Joe Sestak (D): 20 / 9

Job Approval / Disapproval
Sen. Specter: 47 / 45 (chart)
Sen. Casey: 53 / 29 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 49 / 45 (chart)

Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
38% Yes, deserves; 50% No, does not

 

Comments
Xenobion:

He's done decently to be out of the spotlight that occurred in summer. Surprising on his numbers comeback.

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Stillow:

Specter is going to lose this race due to low turn out. On election day there is no way Dems who spent years and years voting against this guy are suddenly going to be all pumped up about going ot to vote for him. While on hte other hand, Toomey will have an energized base and high turn out. In a state rich with conservative Democrats, I think Toomey wins this race and does so by at least 5 points on election day.

Specter is seen now as being selfish and concerned only with his own career. In an off year election with the Dems an hter ebase so depressed right now and the conservatives all energized, this seat will go to Toomey.

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platanoman:

Low turnout when a new governor is running? That won't happen. But, Spector is in trouble

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Stillow:

That is another asset for Toomey is that Corbett is polling much much better than any of his Dem challengers for governor.

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Xenobion:

This is a very wildcard race. Specter has increased his favorables dramatically since the summer. We're lookat at 11 months for more changes and a Dem primary. Anything can happen...

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Napoleon Complex:

Well, Obama's back up to a plus 12 in the Gallup daily tracker (52/40), up from a plus 1 (47/46) less than two weeks ago. It could be that the visions of sugar plum fairies dancing in the heads of the teabaggers are starting to fade away.

Also, a new PPP poll here in NC shows Obama back in "positive" territory (48/47) for the first time since summer, picking up seven points among independents.

I would make a prediction about the chances of the Dems taking Richard Burr's Senate seat next year (he's also polling in the mid-forties), but anyone who would try to predict the outcome of an election 11 months away is an idiot or a fool, or both.

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Stillow:

You cannot use a daily tracker that way. Ras has him at 44 today. The daily trackers have an ebb and flow to them. You hae to look at the pattern and trend to use the daily trackers for anything...and the trend is defiantely down over the past month.

Predictions are part of the game. You make good predicitons by looking at current events and what you beleive future events will lead to. Currently the Dems are a divided party fighting amongst themselves. They have ticked off the right, the center and the far left all at the same time.

We saw in NJ and VA there base is not energized, while hte other side is. This is going to lead to major GOP gains in 2010. Specter will fall victim to it. In nearly every poll Obama is below his election count.

He has fallen faster and harder than any other presidents in there first year. Clinton was at 55 at the end of his first year....but that is +13 from his 42 percent he won with. Obama is now at about 48 average. That is -5 from his 53 percent he got elected with.

Both Obama and the Dems are in big trouble...due i npart to overreaching and the support of a very unpopular HCR bill that no one seems to really like.

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Xenobion:

Clinton had to fight off 2 other candidates so your comparison is sort of a misnomer. Obama is still in job approval ratings to get easily reelected. Throw in someone who failed to win the presidency last year and it'll be even easier for him.

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Napoleon Complex:

I'm exactly looking at the tracker that way, and I'm sorry if it throws cold water on your fantasy. I'm commenting on actual data. As usual, you're just engaged in wild speculation and wishful thinking about something that may or may not happen 11 months from now. You have no idea what's going to happen then and neither do I. It just as likely that as the economy recovers and health care becomes a distant memory the Dems numbers will continue to improve. I realize you're here to push the story for your side, but for you to be counting your chickens now is idiotic.

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Stillow:

If you want to look foolish and use one days daily tracker info tht is fine, next week when it goes back to 47 due to its normal eb and flow and whats it been doing for weeks now, the nI suspect you'll jump on here and announc ehow awful he is doing.

Clearly you do not understand trackers.

Oh and I am using actual data too....Dems are trailing in polls all over the place in key races. If your not intrested in future events or discussing possible election outcomes, then I guess we will not see you back on here until November 2010. Enjoy the time off and I guess we will see you in 11 months.

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Stillow:

X - 2, or 10 opponents, it does not matter. The fact is Obama has fallen faster and harder than anyone else has in there first year. As it stands now, iehter passage or failure of HCR will push his numbers down. The center and th right oppose it, the far left oppose it.

The key is to simply look at VA and NJ and where the Indy's have moved to...and its to the GOP. You cannot win in VA by nearly 20 points without carrying a large majoirty of Indy's. Even the die hard kooks who view Obama as there savior won't show up in 2010 because he is not o nthe ballot. Combined wit hthe historical trend for a presidents party to do badly in off year elections.

Surely you can see the same patterns emerging as emerged in 93 and 94.....or were you watching the Parker Lewis marathon on USA network?

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saywhat90:

No one know what will happen in November 2010. What happened in 93 and 94 happened in 93 and 94. If I assumed election outcomes based on past trends then I would have never thought Barack Obama could be president.

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Napoleon Complex:

I'm not using one day's data on the tracker. I'm looking at two week's worth of data, and according to Gallup, Obama's approval rating has improved 11 points since December 6th. I'm sure if the trend had dropped that much in two weeks you'd be on here wetting your pants about how bad he's doing.

Something has caused a positive change in his approval rating and your continuing rants about him and the Dems being in free-fall are based on nothing more than your own wishful thinking. As I said, it's just as likely that things will continue improve for the Dems as the economy improves and people get past the health care debate.

If I recall correctly you also predicted a while back that that the lines on the Obama approval average chart would cross into the negative and that Obama would be polling in the mid-forties by now. You were wrong about that too.

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Stillow:

saywhat90

Based on hisotircal trend Obama should have won. Only one time since WW2 has the same party occupied the WH for more than 8 straight years...and that was only because a highly popular president was leaving office in 1988 and Bush sr. rode Reagans coattails. History also shows us that every time there is a recession, the incumbant party loses in recent times. Carter, Bush sr, etc.

We use current polling to forecast future results. That is why we are all here on this blog, its a blog on polling data and results and we comment on those results, patterns, trends, etc.

To say current polling doesn't matter on a site dedicated to current polling is pretty silly don't you think?

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Stillow:

saywhat90

Based on hisotircal trend Obama should have won. Only one time since WW2 has the same party occupied the WH for more than 8 straight years...and that was only because a highly popular president was leaving office in 1988 and Bush sr. rode Reagans coattails. History also shows us that every time there is a recession, the incumbant party loses in recent times. Carter, Bush sr, etc.

We use current polling to forecast future results. That is why we are all here on this blog, its a blog on polling data and results and we comment on those results, patterns, trends, etc.

To say current polling doesn't matter on a site dedicated to current polling is pretty silly don't you think?

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Stillow:

Napoleon Complex:

Your memory needs work. What I have been saying for months now is that by years end Obama will be stuck in the high 40's which is where he is. I said by the start of summer he will be stuck in the mid 40's. Feel free to go back and check. I also used polling data and the establishments of watermarks to make my prediction of Christie winning by 4 which of course all you libs totally laughed at me for.

Just look at this poll, Toomey is now tied with Specter in a state with 300,000 more registered Dems. Obama's approval # is 49 in this state, which he won with 55 I beleive. He is down across the baord along with the Dems.

The Dems just got throttled in solid blue NJ and the snot kicked out of them in purple VA. That is called a trend development. Look at recent polling key states like CO, NH, FL, AR, etc. They show the GOP leading in these key swing races. I currently can not think of one obama policy that polls above 50. HCR seems to be stuck at 40 percent approval.

Call it wishful thinking or whatever you wish to call it, facts are facts...and current polling shows the Dems falling...along with Obama.

If you have such a disgust for current polling data and making reasonabel conclusions from that data, why are you on a blog dedicated to polling results?

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Napoleon Complex:

You said on September 2nd:

"The ebb and flow of daily trackers make it worthless to view any one day, but if you look at the trend or the monthly average, rass was simply right before everyone else. Economist and a couple others have Obama at 49....the others will catch up to Rass and start heading into the mid 40's."

Posted on September 2, 2009 12:05 PM

That was three and a half months ago when you predicted that polls would start trending to show Obama in the mid-forties. What happened? You were wrong. You were also wrong on November 2nd when you thought that Hoffman would win NY23 by double digits. Yeah, feel free to go look that one up. We don't know yet how many more moderate Reps will face primary challenges from the Right, so we don't know how many more Hoffmans will cost Reps seats in 2010. (It’s odd that you never talk about that prediction.)

And who says I have disgust for current polling data? I pointed out that the two-week trend on Gallup shows an 11 point gain for Obama, which is directly contrary to your speculation. You’re the one claiming that an 11-point swing in a respected tracking poll over a two-week period is insignificant.

What you’re doing is not making reasonable conclusions from data. All you’re doing is pushing an agenda and repeating the conservative talking points of the day—day after day after day.

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LordMike:

"The fact is Obama has fallen faster and harder than anyone else has in there first year."

Ummm... Reagan fell faster and harder in his first year... Lest you forget that he had a 35% approval in Gallup in January 1983.

Also, Clinton had approvals in the 30's around this time in his first term, and he won reelection easily.

It's too soon to be making predictions about ANYTHING at the moment...

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saywhat90:

I never said polls didn't matter. I simply stated that the current polling is not absolute. It is nothing more than a snapshot of the most probable scenario. Admittedly it's not good for the democrats right now but that doesn't mean they are already doomed. There is a lot of time until November 2010. Like I said many factors can come into play between now and November that may make it worse or better for either party.

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Stillow:

Napoleon Complex:

You are a crack up. What I said is totally true. Several pollsters have Obama in the mid 40's right now...45-47....and the trend is there that Obama is heading and dipping into the mid 40's. You are to funny. Rass was the first to get him into the mid 40's, now the others are following. Fox Dynamics, NBC, Q are all putting him in the 40's. Gallup's tracker takes wild swings, probably due to the regional formula they use on dialing.

Hoffman, I didn't expect the protest vote to be that high. Local polling shows 1 out of 4 republicans voted for Owens out of simple protest against the GOP for nominating a liberal candidate.

Why someone like you who doesn't seem to like polling or the results they show would hang out on a polling blog is beyond me. Hit your back button and look at Obama's average, its below 50...then look at the trend line, its trending downward.

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Napoleon Complex:

I'm not sure what chart you're looking at, but the one on here has Obama at 48.7 approval and the lines are separating, not closing right now. You may consider 48.7 the mid-forties, but I don't think anyone else does.

I don't hang out here much, because I actually get work done during the day. When I do come on, it's to gain some insight from the statisticians and others who have a deeper understanding of polling techniques and probability than I do.

You have every right to post whatever you want, of course, but the rest of us can call you on it when we disagree. You've done a good job of replacing Boomshak as the chief provacateur on this site, and I'll just have to do a better job of ignoring your posts as I did his.

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Stillow:

Well I do my best. Obama and Dems are trending downward. He will be in the mid 40's and stuck there by summer....he will kind of linger right around the mid 40's from summer to the end of next year, barring a major incident which could shift his # in either direction.

Libs on this site, inlcuding yourself often have a hard time actaully reading what others post....and you like to make up what you think was posted, so your comments are not surprising. But that is a good thing for you to practice is ignoring me. I certianly do not want to be a black mark on your otherwise shiny day.

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MikeyA:

Napoleon,

Lest my eyes fool me but both gallup and pollster's lines have either held firm or closed albeit without the typical polling "static.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

The long term statistics support Stillow.

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