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PA: 2010 Sen, Gov (F&M 10/20-25)


Franklin & Marshall
10/20-25/09; 616 adults, 3.9% margin of error
529 registered voters, 4.3% margin of error
250 registered Democrats
202 registered Republicans
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(F&M release)

Pennsylvania

Favorable / Unfavorable
Ed Rendell: 37 / 47 (chart)
Arlen Specter: 28 / 46 (chart)
Bob Casey: 32 / 21 (chart)
Barack Obama: 45 / 39 (chart)
Joe Sestak: 11 / 5
Pat Toomey: 16 / 10

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
30% Arlen Specter, 18% Joe Sestak (chart)

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
10% Dan Onorato, 9% Jack Wagner, 6% Joe Hoeffel, 3% Tom Knox, 3% Chris Doherty (chart)

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
30% Tom Corbett, 8% Jim Gerlach (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
33% Specter, 31% Toomey (chart)
28% Toomey, 20% Sestak (chart)

Job Rating
Pres. Obama: 40% Excellent/Good, 59% Only Fair/Poor (chart)
Sen. Specter: 29 / 64 (chart)
Gov. Rendell: 32 / 65 (chart)

Do you believe that Arlen Specter has done a good enough job as
senator to deserve re-election, or do you believe it is time for a change?

23% Deserves re-election, 66% Time for a change

 

Comments
openid.aol.com/Rahmsputin:

I'd like to see Sestak take this, but the Philly Machine will deliver this to Specter in both the primary and the general.

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Farleftandproud:

PA is a wierd state. As they say, you've got Philly and Pittsburgh and Alabama in between. That is a bit of an overstatement. Besides from the tendency of seeing confederate flags in the bordering areas near WV, I would say PA is more like "Philly and Pittsburgh" with Kansas in between. There is an emphasis on good education and some great colleges in PA. It is more like the rural midwest than it is the deep south.

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Farleftandproud:

PA is a wierd state. As they say, you've got Philly and Pittsburgh and Alabama in between. That is a bit of an overstatement. Besides from the tendency of seeing confederate flags in the bordering areas near WV, I would say PA is more like "Philly and Pittsburgh" with Kansas in between. There is an emphasis on good education and some great colleges in PA. It is more like the rural midwest than it is the deep south.

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Farleftandproud:

I think these poll numbers are exaggerated a bit. PA hasn't gone for a Republican for president since 1988 if I am correct. I am sure this poll was conducted by someone with an axe to grind with Obama. I would have to wonder sometimes how Santorum got re-elected twice. It was his association between gay rights and beastiality killed his political career.

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Farleftandproud:

Go Sestak!!! THis poll clearly states that Specter has to go. Obama was a fool to endorse him.

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Stillow:

If Sestak is the nominee I don't think Toomey has a shot...but if Specter is the nominee, this is a real tossup.

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LordMike:

Agree with Stillow here... No one likes Specter... no one! With good reason! However, I like this part of the poll:

2010 Senate: General Election
33% Specter, 31% Toomey (chart)
28% Specter, 20% Sestak (chart)

I guess Specter still is going for the Republican nomination after all?

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Emily Swanson:

LordMike: Sorry about that. That second "Specter" should be Toomey, of course. I've corrected the post.

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Xenobion:

I think PA just want something new and moderate lol.

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Aaron_in_TX:

There's still a lot of room to grow for Sestak.

Specter is an awful opportunist. Listening to him talk now, you'd never have thought he used to be a republican. I still think he's going to be in serious danger in the primary. It'll be too easy to show video of stuff he said when he was an R.

If Toomey was more moderate, he'd beat Specter easily.

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Farleftandproud:

It is hard to believe that PA Voters are for real. When there is a good turnout Democratic candidates do well. I don't believe this poll because Obama isn't even 40 percent in TN or KY in approval. These are clearly amateurs!

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Farleftandproud:

Go Sestak! I think this poll was taken not from metro Philly or Pittsburgh but obviously the Alabama in between.

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Farleftandproud:

After Bob Casey's defeat of Santorum it showed the public that you don't have to be a conservative, insensitive partisan hate monger to get the message of "family values" across. Casey is pro-life and not in favor of gay marriages but has empathy as a leader. It was just appauling when Santorum compared gay men to beastiality. It killed his political career.

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Farleftandproud:

What concerns me about Specter is his volatility. As a progressive, I think he is just selling his soul. If Joe Liebermann ran as a Republican in 2012 in CT, you can just bet the Dems would get an outstanding candidate to run and Liebermann would look like a complete traitor. I don't think he would get more than 20 percent of the Vote. The conservatives would have a third party and the Democrat would win big. The same fate could happen to specter.

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Farleftandproud:

What concerns me about Specter is his volatility. As a progressive, I think he is just selling his soul. If Joe Liebermann ran as a Republican in 2012 in CT, you can just bet the Dems would get an outstanding candidate to run and Liebermann would look like a complete traitor. I don't think he would get more than 20 percent of the Vote. The conservatives would have a third party and the Democrat would win big. The same fate could happen to specter.

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RAG2:

@ Farleftandproud:

You're right about PA not going GOP since 1988 (and even then, Dukakis was only a few points short), but Rick Santorum was RE-elected ONCE (he was elected twice, if that's what you mean).

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