PA: 2010 Sen, Gov (F&M 5/3-9)
Harry Enten | May 12, 2010
Topics: Governor , Pennsylvania , Senate
Franklin & Marshall / Philadelphia Daily News / Times-Shamrock Newspapers
5/3-9/10; 861 registered voters, 3.3% margin of error
150 likely Democratic primary voters, 7.9% margin of error (only available for Sen primary question)
404 registered Democrats, 4.9% margin of error
321 registered Republicans, 5.5 margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Times-Tribune story; Daily News story)
Update: Franklin and Marshall release
Pennsylvania
2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
Sestak 38%, Specter 36% among likely voters (chart)
Specter 38%, Sestak 29% among registered voters
2010 Senate: Republican Primary
Toomey 28%, Luksik 1%
2010 Senate: General Election
35% Toomey, 33% Specter (chart)
29% Toomey, 28% Sestak (chart)
2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
Onorato 27%, Wagner 5%, Williams 5%, Hoeffel 4% among registered voters (chart)
2010 Governor: Republican Primary
Corbett 29%, Rohrer 10%
Favorable / Unfavorable
Ed Rendell: 41 / 47 (chart)
Arlen Specter: 32 / 47 (chart)
Bob. Casey: 33 / 20 (chart)
Barack Obama: 44 / 46 (chart)
Joe Sestak: 17 / 12
Pat Toomey: 16 / 9
Tom Corbett: 24 / 10
Job Rating
Pres. Obama: 38% Excellent/Good, 61% Fair/Poor (chart)
Sen. Specter: 32% Excellent/Good, 62% Fair/Poor (chart)
Comments
Uh, why is Peg Luksik running? Even Pat Toomey isn't conservative enough for her liking?
Anyways, that is a massive discrepancy between likely and registered voters. This seems like one of those races where the polling is just all over the place, and usually in those races, it seems like somehow nobody winds up polling it accurately. Should be an interesting election next Tuesday.
Posted on May 12, 2010 6:19 AM
I have been seeing Sam Rohrer signs all over Lancaster County lately. I was wondering who he was. He's running for Republican nominee for Governor. I never heard of him and I live in PA. How can he beat Corbett who is well known in the state. Regarding the senate seat, SPecter and Sestak can both win this although I am giving Sestak a slight advantage since he doesn't have the high unfavorables that Specter has. Once people see that he is more conservative than Santorum. I think Sestak or Specter can win this. Nobody really knows who Toomey is yet. Once they do, I think Democrats will come out to vote against him. PA aren't ecstatic over the Dems right now but they sure aren't going to elect a Senator that is closer to Coburn than to Casey.
Posted on May 12, 2010 9:30 AM
Sam Rohrer signs are ALL over berks county as well, and Chester County. I really think the race between him and Corbett is closer than it appears. However, Rohrer is from Berks county, so Chris, it might just be in our areas that we see signs. It's possible that no one knows who he is in the western part of the state.
Posted on May 12, 2010 10:07 AM
Kind of stupid to use the likely and unlikely voter standard in a primary. In my book any primary voter who actually belongs to a party is likely to vote. It is usually Independents who tend not to be as interested in politics.
Posted on May 12, 2010 10:08 AM
I lived in Berks for years though and I still never heard of him though. Who is he Fred?
Posted on May 12, 2010 11:20 AM
far left:
I never voted in any Democratic primary until Hillary and Obama. I am more political than I was several years ago. I am going to this year though.
Posted on May 12, 2010 12:01 PM
Glad you are voting in the primary Mr Merkey. After 1994, it was a good wakeup call that more Democrats have to get active in primaries, regardless of who wins, because it only furthers the momentum in the General Election.
In PA it is too bad Indies can't vote in primaries. In states where they can, you sometimes will nominate the most winnable candidate in the general.
Posted on May 12, 2010 1:10 PM
Wow. This shows that Sestak has the momentum in both the primary fight and general. If he beats Specter next Tuesday, it won't mean an easy victory for Toomey. Toomey is too conservative for PA, but against Specter, he can very likely win as people in PA are getting tired of Spector. Against Sestak though, he has a real fight as many in PA see Sestak more as one of them fighting for the little guy.
Posted on May 12, 2010 2:13 PM
If we could just get these polling outfits to stop displaying data in which "fair" and "poor" are in the same category! Approve/disapprove is a concept understood by the public. For many people, "fair" is neutral or even slightly positive, regardless of the fact that on, for example, a restaurant hospitality survey it's considered a "low grade." Is Franklin & Marshall actually going to say President Obama has a 38% level of support in Pennsylvania? lol
Posted on May 12, 2010 3:15 PM
Rohrer is a State Representative from Berks County.
Posted on May 12, 2010 4:29 PM
Chris Matthews cornered Specter tonight. Specter admitted to voting for John Mccain in 2008 and he greeted Palin in support of her in PA. He also said, Clarence thomas has done a lot of things I agree with. What Democratic candidate expects to win points, by saying "Clarence Thomas has made some good decisions in Court". Obama and John Kerry are actually endorsing Specter?
I predict that Obama will probably endorse Lieberman in 2012 even though he will get killed if he runs as an Independent.
Posted on May 12, 2010 7:48 PM
Gosh PA is a mean state to give Obama such low favorability. I have better ratings than that in states I view as conservative. In one poll Arizona wasn't that much worse.
When it comes to PA voters, who needs enemies when you have impatient voters like that. I am going to make phone call after phone call this year, hopefully for Sestak to make sure that the people in the ghettos, the younger voters, will show up to the polls as long as they are eligable to vote.
Posted on May 12, 2010 7:56 PM
Franklin and Marshall is a quaker school which I imagine leans liberal.
I love the Quakers and there are a lot around that area; they are very anti-war and progressive minded. They are my kind of Christianity!!!! I wish they could replace all these crazy fanatical fundamental mega churches.
Unfortunately there are not enough to have an impact on the wacky voter trends in that part of PA. It is a great area, and I almost moved there once, but just wish it wasn't so goddamned conservative.
Posted on May 12, 2010 8:01 PM
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