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PA: 2010 Sen, Gov (Kos 3/8-10)

Topics: poll

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
3/8-10/10; 600 likely voters, 4.5 margin of error
400 likely Democratic primary voters,
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
51% Specter, 32% Sestak (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
47% Specter (D), 41% Toomey (R) (chart)
42% Toomey (R), 39% Sestak (D) (chart)

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
19% Onorato, 12% Hoeffel, 10% Wagner, 3% Williams (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election
40% Corbett (R), 34% Onorato (D) (chart)
41% Corbett (D), 31% Hoeffel (R)
41% Corbett (R), 32% Wagner (D)
47% Corbett (R), 19% Williams (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Arlen Specter: 48 / 42 (chart)
Joe Sestak: 35 / 23
Pat Toomey: 41 / 36
Dan Onorato: 32 / 15
Jack Wagner: 30 / 14
Joe Hoeffel: 29 / 15
Anthony Williams: 9 / 3
Tom Corbett: 39 / 12
Ed Rendell: 45 / 47 (chart)
Bob Casey: 54 / 27 (chart)
Barack Obama: 51 / 44 (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

I was going to make calls even though I am out of state for Sestak but he isn't funded enough to run a strong campaign. Toomey may be just a little bit too far right for his state.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

i don't know see how Toomey can win with those kinds of numbers. we just got rid of Santorum. we don't need another. PA will have a democratic senator in November. i can do the same thing stillow does.

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Farleftandproud:

I'll guess that Spector has an actual 2 point lead to average the pollsters together.

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Stillow:

To make these Kos polls even more fun for you libs, we should ask pollster to attach a bugle sound file when we enter the Kos threads. Or maybe the Rocky theme song. Just doing my part to help you guys feel good!

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Xenobion:

While a staggering number the Kos poll notes at the bottom an oversample of Democrats. I can't see in the crosstabs how much but I still figure this will be a good fight to watch.

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Mike:

What's interesting here is that if you look at the charts, the conflicting polls are all in the same boat as far as Toomey's percentage: Kos has him at 41, Rasmussen at 47, which is not a statistically significant difference.

But Specter's percentage is all over the lot from 34 to 49. And undecideds are also all over the lot.

Something is odd here.

Is there some difference in the way these polls ask questions that causes some respondents to say "Specter" and others with identical views to say "undecided"?

If the difference was just sampling, I'd expect Toomey's percentages to vary as much as Specter's, which they don't.

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Field Marshal:

I think once the general match-up ramps up and people really learn about Toomey, they will realize that he is not a far-right nut peddled by the liberal press but instead a middle-of-the-road conservative who believes in less taxes and government. People in Penn are still very independent and in this political climate, they will eat his message up!

You heard it here first, Toomey by 3.

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Farleftandproud:

Bob Casey is by far the most popular elected official in PA. That is because he has guts. I don't see his poll numbers dwindling because of his support for passing health reform. I don't see his pro life views keeping him from passing historic legislation like Bart Stupak.

Maybe he needs to reach out to the Stupak 12 and explain the bill detail by detail.

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