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PA: 2010 Sen, Gov (Quinnipiac 3/30-4/5)

Topics: poll

Quinnipiac
3/30-4/5/10; 1,412 registered voters, 2.6% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate
46% Toomey (R), 41% Specter (D) (chart)
42% Toomey (R), 34% Sestak (D) (chart)

2010 Governor
45% Corbett (R), 33% Onorato (D) (chart)
48% Corbett (R), 29% Wagner (D) (chart)
50% Corbett (R), 28% Hoeffel (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Arlen Specter: 40 / 46 (chart)
Pat Toomey: 29 / 9
Joe Sestak: 20 / 11
Dan Onorato: 21 / 11
Jack Wagner: 18 / 8
Joe Hoeffel: 14 / 10
Tony Williams: 3 / 3
Tom Corbett: 47 / 13
Sam Rohrer: 7 / 4

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Rendell: 45 / 45 (chart)
Sen. Specter: 44 / 47 (chart)
Sen. Casey: 48 / 30 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 45 / 49 (chart)

 

Comments
CUWriter:

TOOMsday is slowly approaching. I think the approve/disapprove versus favorable/unfavorable for Specter is interesting. Just about the same number of people disapprove of him as have an unfavorable opinion. But more people approve of the job he's doing than actually like him. Weird.

Bottom line though, when the president is upside down in a state he won handily, that's bad news for his party in a midterm. Corbett will win easily and I think Toomey wins by 4-5 points.

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Field Marshal:

Stillow,

I thought you were overly optimistic when you said 8 seats a couple of months ago. However, that is looking more and more likely as time passes. Of course, there is a lot of time left until November.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

they haven't even began campaigning yet. mostly because the primary hasn't even happened. i live in pa and haven't seen an ad yet for anybody. Most dems are not going to vote for Toomey. i think a lot of independents will not vote for Toomey either. i don't see how toomey pulls this off. Like I said before, compare him to Santorum in ads. it's not a stretch either. i think he wins if he doesn that. santorum lost 40 to 60 against the best brand name in PA of course but still it was a pretty big loss.

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Field Marshal:

Yes, but how many Dems will vote FOR Specter after voting against him all these years? In addition, Santorum was elected once by the people of PA so electing Toomey is not that far out of the realm and given the anger towards the Dem party by indies and Reps coupled with voter enthusiasm, Toomey looks like he will pull this thing out- as of now.

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Stillow:

FM - I see 8 as the minimum pickup. I still think the GOp can steal a couple they are not supposed to win....like CA, NY, WI, WA for example. Despite what liberal pundits and bloggers are saying, this will be a wave election...and wave elections have a way of sneaking a fe upsets in there.

Sure there is a lot of time left, but IMO that helps the GOP. Dina Titus for example here in NV is actually running ads praising her vote to pass HCR, when the jounral here in town did a local poll of her district and 64 percent of voters in her district did not want the HCR to pass.

For no other reason than Dems simply don't get it they will get creamed this fall. Take it to the bank!

If I am wrong I will put an Obama 2012 bumper sticker on my over sized gas guzzling enviroment crushing world ending human killing Nissan Armada.

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Sean Murphy:

As it stands the GOP is poised to take 7(RCP Avg) with Illinois and California with in reach.

NY-Gillibrand will win
WI-Feingold wins unless Thompson gets in
WA- Only way Murray loses is if Rossi gets in

So GOP+7 with the possibility of +9 and thus a 50/50 Senate

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JMSTiger:

I agree, right now, it is GOP +8 in the Senate.

Locks:
-Delaware
-North Dakota

Near Locks:
-Arkansas
-Indiana
-Nevada

Leaning:
-Pennsylvania

Slight Lean:
-Colorado
-Illinois

It doesn't appear any GOP held seats are in any danger, as of today.

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