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PA: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 5/6)

Topics: Pennsylvania , Senate

Rasmussen
5/6/10; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate
Toomey 50%, Specter 38% (chart)
Toomey 42%, Sestak 40% (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Arlen Specter: 41 / 57 (chart)
Pat Toomey: 51 / 36
Joe Sestak: 50 / 37

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 50 / 47 (chart)
Gov. Rendell: 40 / 58 (chart)

 

Comments
Billy Chunge:

PA Dems. Don't make the mistake of giving Specter the democratic nomination. He has done some good things for PA and the country, I agree with that. But he will not be able to win in the general. Just look at what happened to Bennett of Utah over the weekend.

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Chris V.:

I can't say I'm a big fan of Sestak, and I prefer Specter to him...but if nominating Sestak is what it takes to keep Mr. Club for Growth out of the Senate, then so be it. PA doesn't need another Santorum.

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Farleftandproud:

Wow! Nothing against Specter, but this is impressive! Specter would have had the advantage on name recognition, but there is a certain type of uninformed, disinterested Independent voters who don't really vote on the issues. They may not be bright enough to see the difference between Specter and toomey, but Sestak, who is a lifelong Democrat would make the case better.

This shows that winning elections in America sometimes has less to do with ideology and more on how they come across.

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Farleftandproud:

The ads with George Bush saying very nice things about Specter is not a good thing. Sestak is going to get slammed for getting relieved of military duty and if it is a lie he has to make good case against the opponents. Is Toomey a veteran? I don't know much about him.

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jmartin4s:

OK, this is Rasmussen who is known for having bizarre outliers. According to PPP last clean IVR poll of this state Specter trailed Toomey by 3 and Sestak trailed Toomey by 6. Now honestly, who do we really believe PPP or Rasmussen???? I also don't think there will be much enthusiasm for Sestak among Ed Rendell's people and in Philly, so thus I still believe that Specter is ultimately believe that Specter is the stronger candidate. In addition, Specter has been in tough races before and fought dirty to claw his way back into the lead. Ex. he was down in summer of 1992 by 15 points to Lynn Yeakel. If Specter wins the nomination he will find a way to win the general.

In addition, I have concerns about Sestak's attitude problems, not to mention that his face would be all over MSNBC which would be even more annoying.

Pennsylvania would also lose a lot of seniority if Specter was booted because Specter has been there since 1980 and Casey has only been there 2006. So my ultimate analysis is that it I think it would be very dangerous for PA dems to toss Specter. Just look at how bad it made republicans look when they tossed Bob Bennet last saturday in Utah. He is a good man and he deserves another term.

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obamalover:

LOL! Where are all the people claiming that Specter would be the better candidate?

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obamalover:

@jmartin4s

Specter got pushed in the back of the line when he switched parties in terms of seniority. So that is no reason to keep him.

So as you can clearly see Sestak is the better candidate.

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Obamafan:

Jmartin, I agree with you. I am very skeptical of this poll. I still believe that Specter is the far stronger candidate for the general. It's just logical that he would be. Once people get to know Sestak, I have no doubt that he would lose to Toomey.

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obamalover:

@Obamafan

Get to know Sestak? Did you have tea with the man? How do you know Sestak so well?

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Farleftandproud:

But Sestak may have more energy than Specter and can do a better job at getting those inner city voters and less likely younger voters to turn out. Besides, Much of PA is largely Democratic, it is just the other part that loves social conservativism and very religious and anti-Obama we have to worry about. These types of conservatives in the interior part of the State will vote for Toomey anyhow.

Specter's unfavorables have been down for a long time and it will only get worse.

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jmartin4s:

Since when did we start believing that Rasmussen was the gold standard of polling according to PPP Speter was the stronger candidate. Not to mention I'd like to know why Sestak won't pay his campaign workers minimum wage. BTW I find it hilarious that Obamafan and Obamalover are in disagreement. I hope PPP or SUSA is polling the primary this week.

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obamalover:

@jmartin4s

Nobody is forcing those people to work for Sestak. They don't have to if they don't want to. He does not have the war chest of Specter, so people who work for Sestak are doing it because they want to.

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Obamafan:

Obamalover, that is not true. Sestak raised plenty of money and has a terrible reputation for how he treats his staff. He doesn't pay them a livable wage. Even people devoted to the candidate they work for, have to make enough money to live on.

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obamalover:

@Obamafan

Really how much money does he have on hand compared to Specter?

He is not forcing them to work for him. If he is so awful to his staff they can leave any time. Why don't they?

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jmartin4s:

My major issue with Sestak is his attitude and if it turns me off it will turn swing voters in PA off for sure. Not to mention if he ends up in the senate, I think he will be even more on his high horse. In addition, if Specter could come back on top from the whole Lynn Yeakel thing he can beat Pat Toomey. I mean Specter was really hated during that election over Anita Hill and he ended up winning by over 100k.

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jmartin4s:

Oooh Obamalover tons of Sestaks aids quite during his first year as congressman that is how horrible he is so people do leave him.

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Obamafan:

Jmartin, I heard too that lots of people have left his campaign due to not being paid a livable wage. I also read somewhere that he recently had $5 million dollars at his disposal, so I think any argument that he doesn't have the funds to pay his staff, doesn't fly. He has spent $1.6 million in the last week for advertising.

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Obamafan:

Just to support my claim that Sestak lost a lot of campaign people due to poor treatment, I wanted to provide the following link:

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/02/sestak-sheds-another-staffer/

It's pretty easy to believe Specter's claims that Sestak was relieved of duty in the Navy for creating a poor work environment. The way he ran his campaign would seem to support that.

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obamalover:

@Obamafan

Your logic makes no sense whatsoever. He has 5 mil at his disposal and spent 1.6 last week on advertising. How long do you think that 5 mil will last? LOL. Not everyone has the loads of cash that Specter has.

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Obamafan:

How long does his $5 million have to last? The campaign is over in a week and he apparently has enough left to spend $1.6 million on advertising at the very least. You still haven't addressed the real issue at hand. Why do people leave his employment in droves? If he can't even run a campaign properly as is exhibited by a very high attrition rate, what makes you think the 2 term congressman can be a good senator? To me it's about character and integrity.

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obamalover:

@Obamafan

Yeah because the campaign stops at the primaries LOL.

Second of all, Sestak may be a bit of an ass, but he is a liberal ass who polls better against Toomey.

Furthermore, if he was running such a bad campaign why is he beating your boy Specter in the polls?

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CHRIS MERKEY:

i am quite suspicious of this poll. Sestak's numbers went up quite signficantly since the last Rasmussen poll. People might be seeing his ads so more people would know him but I still think he is fairly unknown in PA. I wonder what Rasmussen is trying to spin here. He thinks Sestak is easier to defeat maybe. Speaking of Rasmussen, he seems to be doing a lot less polls than he was. He was doing one or more every day. Maybe he doesn't like the numbers he is seeing lately. I would like to see one in Nevada since one of Lowden's staffers said something just as ridiculous as Lowden. He said something like "If you are shot, you have health care."

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Ned:

This poll follows the national trend. People are tired of corrupt establishment candidates taking away their choices and picking candidates for them. Joe Sestak was told by Barack Obama and the whole democratic machine that this senate seat belonged to arlen specter, for no other reason than seniority based patronage. Joe Sestak said this guys not even a democrat, im running anyway, imagine if he actually wins: golden. you gotta respect that. Toomey is also an honorable guy, someone who kept his promise to stay only six years in Congress. Those two deserve to be the nominees and let the folks decide who they prefer.

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Chris V.:

The problem I have with these "establishment candidates must be thrown out" arguments is that there is usually no reason to believe that the person replacing them will be any less unethical or less deaf to their constituency. It seems like usually they just end up replacing an entrenched scumbag with a fresh new scumbag...not exactly a productive exercise. Oh well.

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