Pollster.com

What would a weekday morning be without a pro-Republican poll from Rass. Toomey 57-30? LOL. Maybe in his old congressional district.

There is no way, even among likely voters, that name recognition is this high 3 months before the election.

If Rasmussen's sample is really this savvy, they are NOT representative...

Also, if Rasmussen has the capacity to actually poll 750 LV in one night, why haven't they been doing it all along?

I'm guessing Rasmussen changes his sample from 500 LV to 750 LV as the election gets closer. Who knows perhaps it will jump to 1,000 LV as we draw even closer.

Why wouldn't name recognition be that high? It's likely voters, and there was a pretty contentious primary on the Democratic side that got a lot of attention, plus Toomey has been around PA politics for a decent amount of time, so I see absolutely no reason why 85-90% of likely voters having an opinion of either candidate is outside the realm of possibility.

Dave:

i live in Pa and most of my friends/co-workers don't know who either of these two are. Most of them will vote based on partisan views. TOomey was a representative from the Lehigh Valley area. They might know him there but not elsewhere. I never heard of Onorato until recently but the Pittsburgh area knows him pretty well because he was the mayor. Sestak hasn't even begun to fight. Once he campaigns against some of Toomey's views which are way too conservative for PA then the numbers will tighten. I have seen one sign for Sestak in all of Lancaster. I have seen 0 signs for TOomey. He should have tons of them here in order to win. He needs turnout in central PA to win. If not, he won't win.

Hmmm, Gov. Rendell: 42 / 59. 42+59=101%.

Dave:

i live in Pa and most of my friends/co-workers don't know who either of these two are. Most of them will vote based on partisan views. TOomey was a representative from the Lehigh Valley area. They might know him there but not elsewhere. I never heard of Onorato until recently but the Pittsburgh area knows him pretty well because he was the mayor. Sestak hasn't even begun to fight. Once he campaigns against some of Toomey's views which are way too conservative for PA then the numbers will tighten. I have seen one sign for Sestak in all of Lancaster. I have seen 0 signs for TOomey. He should have tons of them here in order to win. He needs turnout in central PA to win. If not, he won't win.

". I have seen 0 signs for TOomey. He should have tons of them here in order to win. He needs turnout in central PA to win. If not, he won't win."

I could see your point if it was mid-October but it's only the end of July. Once Labor day comes and goes then things will probably ratchet up.

It wouldn't be a weekday if we didn't have the whiners on the left crying about Rasmussen. Doesn't it get old and tired being constantly wrong?

No, but sometimes it can get tiresome being constantly right.

Anyone in PA know if Sestak's Ads are up and, if so..where?

Chris Merkey: Sure. But if they vote on partisan views, and the pollster asks the question, "What is your opinion of Democratic candidate Joe Sestak?" Then the partisans will probably have an opinion.

Tal: It's rounding. Happens all the time.

No, but sometimes it can get tiresome being constantly right.

Still waiting for THAT to happen...

looking good for toomey in november. he also has a 2-1 cash on hand advantage

This guy is a idiot.

I am going to make some calls this weekend to possible volunteers and some Obama voters who are obviously asleep this year. Toomey cannot win this race. It would be bad for the US Senate and bad for PA.

If I could pick only 4 seats the Dems could hold, if I knew the others were all going to go Republican, my most important are Washington, WI, PA and NV

i live in philly. toomey's been on the air here for a few weeks, haven't seen anything from sestak. either he's keeping hi spowder dry like he did versus specter, or doesn't have the cash to hit the airwaves yet

Toomey cannot win this race. It would be bad for the US Senate and bad for PA.

In whose eyes? Yours? Apparently the voters of PA believe that keeping the Dems with such power in both the congress and WH is bad for AMERICA.

I am not surprised Toomey is from the Lehigh Valley. Lehigh was known as a huge party school for rich kids not that interested in much of anything than frat parties. Toomey is from a district that is near some of the more industrial strongholds that lean Democratic.

The same people who helped campaign in Murtha's old district, should work hard to make sure that area breaks even.

The eastern part of PA has some fiscal conservative sections in the nice Philly suburbs and what will work for Sestak in those places is to focus on Toomey's extreme social conservative views as well.

The advantage to the days when the GOP nominated people like Specter and Tom Ridge was they were well liked among independents and even among those who wouldn't vote for them. That for the Democrats is a good thing because they have someone who is more likely to vote for them, but moderates like that usually get re-elected. In 1994, there were some very conservative senators who won in states that were swing states or blue states, and many of them got defeated in 2000. I predict that if 2010 is a good year for the GOP, 2016 will be good for the Democrats considering how extreme many of their candidates are.

Toomey does not come across like a right wing radical, and is low keyed. Santorum on the other hand was much more explicit in his conservative rhetoric. For someone who doesn't know politics very well Toomey doesn't seem extreme. That is why Sestak has to fight for what he believes, and that is the middle class. Toomey has the top 5 percent in mind, and that will take PA in the wrong direction.

The liberals here don't want to admit it but Americans would benefit more from libertarian-conservative policies than they would from the big government policies those like Farleft and others advocate for.

"The liberals here don't want to admit it but Americans would benefit more from libertarian-conservative policies than they would from the big government policies those like Farleft and others advocate for."

Yeah, that's why we're still trying to climb out of the hole libcons left us in.

"If I could pick only 4 seats the Dems could hold, if I knew the others were all going to go Republican, my most important are Washington, WI, PA and NV"

Replace Nevada with California, and I'd agree with you.

Dave: The knock against Rasmussen is that his likely-voter screen is too narrow, and is mostly picking up political junkies. His polls consistently show far lower undecideds on the fav/unfav question than other pollsters' do.

I'd be surprised if Toomey's fav/unfav is anywhere near +27 once Sestak goes negative on him. His views on economic issues are way outside the mainstream for Pennsylvania, which tilts a bit to the left. He'd be a better fit for New Hampshire.

I understand that. I'm just saying that given the parameters Rassmussen freely admits he uses, the numbers are hardly outlandish.

Rasmussen's likely voter model overcompensates. Look at the empirical facts. It's house effect +3-4 for the Republican candidates regularly from the real outcome. Those that defend Rasmussen are just being partisan hacks as most of their defense is nothing about the numbers and more about just insulting those that critique Rasmussen.

Von Wallenstein:

i live in philly. toomey's been on the air here for a few weeks, haven't seen anything from sestak. either he's keeping hi spowder dry like he did versus specter, or doesn't have the cash to hit the airwaves yet

So, seems like Toomey's putting up positive Ads telling people what a nice and reasonable guy his is. His favorables are still sky high. People think he's mainstream. After Reid got through with Angle hers were eviscerated everyone knew she was way right.

I do think Sestak's got to play this carefully and conserve funds at this point; however the process of grinding Toomey down needs to start now or the public perception will become fixed that he's just a guy who wants to fix Washington. The DSCC and other outside groups need to run Ads about Toomey, as an extremist, targeting moderates.

What troubles me the most is that Toomey's still NOT seen as an extremist by most PA residents. In fact Sestak is viewed as out of the mainstream by more PA residents than Toomey. That needs to change. And it should if the money is there to drag Toomey down, because Toomey's own words and deeds will sink him if used properly.

Paleo: You said it all,the Republican party left Obama a complete mess,no other President in history including FDR had to deal with what Obama have to deal with,and its amazing the American people and the Major Media is giving the Republican party the benefit of the doubt,something they would never have done for the Democrats.Its just so unbelievable

With the Rasmussen "house effect" it is a very close race. Sestak has a lot of fences to mend with the Democratic establishment. But he needs to it quietly. Trumpeting ties to other Democratic office holders is probably not the best strategy this year. but he needs their foot soldiers to get out the vote.

i'm not sure toomey's social views are that far out of the mainstream in Pa. we have a pro-life democratic senator. gov. casey was as hardcore pro-life as they come (and denied a speaking spot at the '92 democratic pres. convention). bush's losing margin in '06 was as close as his winning margin in ohio.

his economic views are a different story. sestak's best bet is to tie him to wall street. Pa. turns on blue collar, generally socially conservative voters

Just keep hitting Toomey with social security, social security, social security. Also I'm sure he made some extreme free market feitshist statements when he was the head of the Club for Growth that can be used against him.

There are only a few constants in the universe. one is that women make absolutely no sense at all. Another being the sun will rise i nthe east and set i nthe west....and another is that the left will perpetually whine about any and all polls that give them undesireable numbers.

Toomsday is on its way to PA.....deal with it.

I think the SS attack by the Dems will hurt them. They offer up no solutions to fix the problem, just keep hitting republican ideas. Most voters know about the unsustainable path the program is on and the large portion of the budget it represents.

"no other President in history including FDR had to deal with what Obama have to deal with"

So today's recession is worse than the Great Depression? LOL

FM - I would say 85 percent of people under age 35 would tell you SS will not be around when they retire......and they right, it will not. SS has to be phased out and repalced with a program that is sustainable. SS is simply unfundable...in the future, SS obligations and intrest o nthe debt will consume the netire federal budget.

It has to be phased out and soemthing else put in its place. I would favor a 401k style personal account with a g'ment match based on income. What you pay in FICA now can be redirected to a personal account, well maybe 65 percent of it...the g'ment can provide a percentage match....the toher 35 percent of FICA can go to help those with disabilitties, etc. I would even support restrictions o nthe type of investments that can be made and you should have the option to allow g'ment to administer your private account or do it yourself. Even limiting you to average money markets you can probably get 4 percent return a year....I think the SS trust now earns about 2 percent.

This allows people to actually see there retirmenet account building and make investment moves with it.

Of course liberals hate these types of ideas, they hate anything that takes power away from g'ment......liberals would find the thought of people actually handling their own affairs totally unacceptable.

Stillow,

You don't have to preach that to me. I won a large scholarship for a paper I wrote on the ridiculousness of SS and what people give up in terms of potential assets by being forced to contribute to it.

I think the more educated people become about the problem and learn about alternatives that would work, the more they will favor alternative approaches like Bush II and Toomey.

The SS trust earns less 2% but the real return to almost every taxpayer is actually negative.

"I think the SS attack by the Dems will hurt them. They offer up no solutions to fix the problem, just keep hitting republican ideas. Most voters know about the unsustainable path the program is on and the large portion of the budget it represents."

Wrong.

http://pol.moveon.org/ssmyths/index.html?rc=fb.1.email

Sestak has another vulnerability that Toomey can hit him on, if needed. Before the Gulf spill took over the 24/7 news cycle, even the liberal media was trying to corner Sestak on that little discrepancy between his story and the White House Counsel story on the job offer.

Somehow, I don't WH loosing to Sestak in a war of BS.

Here's a short summary of events.

http://whitehouse.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/05/28/white-house-counsels-office-on-rep-sestake-job-offering/

"I would say 85 percent of people under age 35 would tell you SS will not be around when they retire......and they right, it will not. SS has to be phased out and repalced with a program that is sustainable. SS is simply unfundable...in the future, SS obligations and intrest o nthe debt will consume the netire federal budget.

It has to be phased out and soemthing else put in its place. I would favor a 401k style personal account with a g'ment match based on income. What you pay in FICA now can be redirected to a personal account, well maybe 65 percent of it...the g'ment can provide a percentage match....the toher 35 percent of FICA can go to help those with disabilitties, etc. I would even support restrictions o nthe type of investments that can be made and you should have the option to allow g'ment to administer your private account or do it yourself. Even limiting you to average money markets you can probably get 4 percent return a year....I think the SS trust now earns about 2 percent.

This allows people to actually see there retirmenet account building and make investment moves with it.

Of course liberals hate these types of ideas, they hate anything that takes power away from g'ment......liberals would find the thought of people actually handling their own affairs totally unacceptable."

So much stupidity crammed into such a short space.

For the umpteenth time, social security is not an investment program, it's an insurance program. People were, and are, expected to have separate plans, or savings, for retirement. What social security does is prevent people from living in poverty in their elder years. It also pays disability to millions of Americans.

The reason young people think it "won't be there" is precisely because of lies like this spread by the right. Who have hated social security, and tried to get rid of it, since its inception. Not because it's a failure, but precisely because it has been a success. It drives them up a wall because it clashes with their free market theology. What should be phased out is posts like Stillow's.

That should have read "Somehow, I don't see WH loosing to Sestak in a war of BS."

If this story comes up again, and it will if this race gets close and nasty, either the WH or Sestak will end up looking like @#$@#.

Who is it gonna be?

Typical liberal response, ignore the problem and attack the poster. Geeee, thats never happend from liberals before.

Ahhh, we will just print the money we need....and borrow any shortfalls from China I suppose to pay for the lefts dream of everlasting SS.

Tell Paleo, how are people supposed to afford other accounts? If your in the top bracket living in CA you already paying nearly half your income in federal, state and local income taxes. throw in property taxes, fuel taxes, utiltity taxes, vehicle taxes, and assortment of various consumption taxes people are not left with a whole lot to save. We are already taxed u pthe wazoo.

Face it, you love SS because it represents g'ment control....it makes people on SS dependent, right where liberals want them. By allowing folks to contro lthere accounts and make invesmtnets that would produce higher income in retirmenet, well then, those people would be less dependant.

Keep attacking the messenger and ignoring the problem. Maybe you have some magic fairy dust to sprinkle on SS to suddenly make it viable and sustainable?

That post is not even worthy of much of a response since you ignore the truth and proceed to spout a bunch of right-wing cliches. You obviously have no idea how social security works and that the supposed "problem" is way overstated.

http://pol.moveon.org/ssmyths/index.html?rc=fb.1.email

LOL. I thought more of you Paleo than citing those pathetic and obviously biased arguments. I mean moveon.org? And you really believe it? PLease...

You're "attacking the messenger." Take it up with Stillow.

paleo - Call me names then, call me a liar, blah blah....hmmmm, ya know if you turn the pag in the liberal book of "what to say when you lsoe the debate" you get to call me a racist next. Won't that be fun for you?

When you find the magic fairy dust to solve SS, can you sprinkle some on my lawn too please to keep it green? Thanks, I'd appreicate it.

Heritage Foundation disputes almost every single ridiculous notion that moveon.org stated on your link.

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2004/09/The-Top-10-Myths-About-Social-Security-Reform

So does Commondreams.org.

http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0212-09.htm

So does National Review.

http://old.nationalreview.com/nrof_luskin/luskin200501110842.asp

So does Cato...

http://www.socialsecurity.org/daily/10-12-00.html

Yes, but moveone.org is a high credible and respected source for information. If not for them we would never have had wonderful things like General betray us or Bush in his Hitler costume.

LOL.

TJ (my favorite poster):

I live in PA and I haven't seen any ads from either of them yet. I am surprised. I live a little south of Harrisburg. I usually watch Maddow and Olbermann but not lately since they are both on vacation or planning some socialist takeover with Obama this week. I haven't seen any ads on either of their shows. If Reid is ahead, I don't see how Sestak can get ahead of Toomey. Much bluer state, favorables higher than Reids,. He can win this but he has to attack him on his economic views not social views.

I usually watch Maddow and Olbermann

Why?

melvin:

"Paleo: You said it all,the Republican party left Obama a complete mess,no other President in history including FDR had to deal with what Obama have to deal with,and its amazing the American people and the Major Media is giving the Republican party the benefit of the doubt,something they would never have done for the Democrats.Its just so unbelievable"

You're right, it is unbelievable. As in, it is literally not believable, because it's rambling nonsense. Where do come up with this stuff?

Paleo:

"If I could pick only 4 seats the Dems could hold, if I knew the others were all going to go Republican, my most important are Washington, WI, PA and NV"

Pretty good list. Assuming we're only talking about the competitive races, I think I would go with Wisconsin, Colorado, Pennsylvania (because Specter is too extreme, not because I like Sestak) and Missouri (just to keep Roy Blunt out of the Senate). Maybe even replace Pennsylvania with Charlie Crist winning in Florida.

Angle and Paul are both kind of scary, but they would only be 2 votes out 100 and they would probably both be the gifts that keep on giving for the Democrats given their penchant for controversy.

Replace with Arizona if Hayworth somehow beats McCain in the primary. The Senate at least has a little bit of prestige compared to the House, it doesn't need blowhards like Hayworth changing that.

"Heritage Foundation disputes almost every single ridiculous notion that moveon.org stated on your link.

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2004/09/The-Top-10-Myths-About-Social-Security-Reform"

When you're trying to discredit one group of fringe ideologues, citing arguments against them written by another group of fringe ideologues might not be the best strategy.

I watch Olberman. Can one of you libs please tell him he wears way to much make up. I like to see the worst persons...because its either Oreilly, Hannity or boss Limbaugh about 95 percent of the time.....well bachman is in there too.

Maddow, she is just kinda scary, I have this feeling she eats small kids during mealtime for some reason.

The partisan vitriol on this site is so perplexing. "U liberals this". "U conservatives this". U would actually think that either party had the guts to cut the entitlements neccesary to cut the deficit in a meaningfull way. Looks like conservatives will take the house hopefully the senate too. I anxiously await the proposals for entitlement reform, but something tells me they will be just as useless as the dems.

"Ned:

The partisan vitriol on this site is so perplexing. "U liberals this". "U conservatives this". U would actually think that either party had the guts to cut the entitlements neccesary to cut the deficit in a meaningfull way."

Amen, but it's not just this site...it's the whole damn country it seems like. Independent thought and the spirit of compromise have been thoroughly replaced in politics by the sort of hyper-partisan hackery that you see on this site's comment sections every day.

The partisan vitriol on this site is so perplexing.

It's the democrats fault.

If I could pick only 4 seats the Dems could hold, if I knew the others were all going to go Republican, my most important are Washington, WI, PA and NV"

Replace Nevada with California, and I'd agree with you.

THe reason I didn't include CA, is because there is virtually no way Fiorina can win. Had they nominated a moderate like Campbell, this race would have been competitive.

She can spend all the money she wants, but I am considering California as safe for the Dems as Ct and Oregon.

"StatyPolly:
Sestak has another vulnerability that Toomey can hit him on, if needed. Before the Gulf spill took over the 24/7 news cycle, even the liberal media was trying to corner Sestak on that little discrepancy between his story and the White House Counsel story on the job offer.

Somehow, I don't WH loosing to Sestak in a war of BS."

I have made many calls and had questions about taxes, Jobs, social security, social issues, and Afghanistan, but nobody has mentioned anything about the WH job offer to keep Sestak out of the race.

Sestak in my opinion did nothing wrong, and there really wasn't much he could do, other than to tell the White house, No way!

Sestak is a awsome candidate, and this election will be very close. Over the years it has not been easy to find progressives who also have a strong military record. Sometimes the two specialties don't go together. Sestak is for the middle class and small businesses, yet Toomey is a clever campaigner who can twist the truth, and it is hard for people to take notice.

I looked at Toomey's voting record on a non-partisan web site, and he does have a more conservative record than many of the Southern republicans in the senate. It creeped me out.

If Sestak loses it will be because of the economy, low turnout and simply a bad Democratic year. If Toomey does win, I can tell you he would be very unpopular and would never get re-elected if he is going to have the same voting record as he did in Congress.

@FM,

You said,"They offer up no solutions to fix the problem, just keep hitting republican ideas."

Hasn't that been the Republican strategy for the past 25 years now? Where were their ideas for HCR besides negative attacks on the Dem's plans?

@Stillow

You said, "Maddow, she is just kinda scary, I have this feeling she eats small kids during mealtime for some reason."

I don't care what you think about Maddow, but she is definitely no more scary than Glen Beck. That guy has to be forming multiple aneurysms every time he talks on his show...no small kid is safe with him around.