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PA: 46% Toomey, 44% Sestak (GHY 8/12-15)

Topics: Pennsylvania , poll

Garin Hart Yang (D) for the DSCC
8/12-15/10; 800 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate
46% Toomey (R), 44% Sestak (D) (chart)

 

Comments
Fred:

well that about wraps this one up. DSCC-funded poll with toomey leading.

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billwy:

This probably confirms a stable, mid-single digits lead for Toomey. Sestak needs a game changer, whether it be a debate, or a really effective ad, to pull this one out.

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Paleo:

Sestak trailing at this juncture is not at all surprising. He, unlike Toomey, had a contested primary, he's not up on the air, and he's being attacked on the air by outside groups. The guy came from behind in '06 and in this year's primary. He'll do it again this fall against Mr. Club for Growth.

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Field Marshal:

Sestak is done. An internal poll showing him down. FAIL!

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Bill:

Sestak within the margin of error without yet spending a nickel on advt? Shows that Toomey's ads are missing by a wide margin.

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Xenobion:

Technically not an internal poll as it was put up by a the DSCC. Its always the candidate managed polls that end up getting the laughs.

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tjampel:

Not an internal perhaps but I'd still add 5 points to Toomey's lead to be safe. Who knows how tough the likely screen is. It's consistent with other polls when we do that.

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Farleftandproud:

Wow. This poll is truly scientific! I am so impressed. Sestak will win this won big! Just kidding.

Polls like this one are pointless. If you do an internal poll and you are behind still there is no point in releasing it.

I think I am going to try to get on another campaign. A part of me is so frustrated trying to reason with these independent voters, I almost just want to sit this election cyle out and wait and see what kind of atrocious policies a Republican congress puts on Obama's desk? Maybe it will wake up the voters somewhat who did come out to vote for Obama. If they are too busy to vote this year maybe 6 years of a jackass senator like a Fiorina or Toomey will teach them a lesson.

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Cyril Washbrook:

@Farleftandproud: internal polls - or similar - are, in fact, scientific. There is no incentive for them to be deliberately skewed. Campaigns and party organisations need their internal polls to be as accurate and unbiased as possible, so that they know where their weaknesses are and whether they're in with a chance. In fact, well-funded campaigns will often undertake far more sophisticated, detailed and precise polling than public survey companies.

What makes internal polls unreliable as indicators to us as analysts is that we only get to see the ones that the campaigns want us to see.

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Cyril Washbrook:

@Farleftandproud: internal polls - or similar - are, in fact, scientific. There is no incentive for them to be deliberately skewed. Campaigns and party organisations need their internal polls to be as accurate and unbiased as possible, so that they know where their weaknesses are and whether they're in with a chance. In fact, well-funded campaigns will often undertake far more sophisticated, detailed and precise polling than public survey companies.

What makes internal polls unreliable as indicators to us as analysts is that we only get to see the ones that the campaigns want us to see.

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Juan Chin:

Sestak is playing this very smart. I recall Anne Northup doing this back in 1996. She held all of her cash until around Labor Day and Democratic incumbent Rep. Mike Ward didn't know what hit him when she went on television with her advertising assult. She won by a little more than a 1,000 votes, but her strategy worked. I think it's funny to see the far right Toomey campaign as a free thinking independent guy. Isn't this why he hated Specter?

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