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PA: 47% Toomey, 37% Sestak (Ipsos/Reuters 8/27-29)

Topics: Pennsylvania , poll

Ipsos / Reuters
8/27-29/10; 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error
407 likely voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Ipsos release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Senate
47% Toomey (R), 37% Sestak (D) (chart)

2010 Governor
49% Corbett (R), 34% Onorato (D) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Rendell: 43 / 52 (chart)

 

Comments
Von Wallenstein:

looks like Pa. is turning as red as ohio. the dems will shortly write-off this race and focus on more winnable contests in Colo., Calif., Wash., Wis., Nev. and Ky. (and continue to quietly push crist in Fla.)

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Scott:

As a PA Republican I am fully expecting to see Toomey and Corbett win, but I would be shocked if the Dems didn't continue to push hard for them. There are up to 8 vulnerable House Democrats who couldn't afford to see the state written off.

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Von Wallenstein:

agreed, the DCCC and DNC can't abandon kanjorski, murphy, altmire, dahlkamper, etc., but toomey's going to cruise to at least a seven-point victory. nate silver at 538 gives toomey an 88% chance at winning

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TeaPartyRules:

Looks like PA is planning a tea party Nov. 4th.

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Mogando669:

"looks like Pa. is turning as red as ohio."

if PA/OH/FL all turns light red in 2012, obama needs to RUN THE BOARD just to make 271, with zero margin of error (assuming NC and IN were one-time flukes).

obama may still be popular, but if he becomes unpopular in those 3 key states, he needs a HECK more luck, even against a nothing-special republican. That fact that Portman, Rubio, and Toomey might run the board in 2010 is a bad omen for obama '12.

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Bukama:

It recently occured to me that in '04 and '06, the Republicans were voted out of office for not doing what they said they would do. In 2010, the Dems will be voted out of office for doing what they said they would do.

If the House turns, President Obama will be bloked from accomplishing much more of his ambitious agenda. That may actually help him in 2012. I think people are much more happy with his stated international objectives vs. his domestic ones. Assuming the economy regains some equilibrium (which it should on its own), Obama's popularity will probably rise if he keeps US casualties in Afghanistan to a minimum.

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Von Wallenstein:

re: 2012, i think it depends on whom the GOP nominee is. hard to see haley barbour, for instance, carrying Pa., although if the economy's in still in the tank then all bets are off

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Field Marshal:

Bukama,

I've been saying for months that i'm not sure if i want the GOP to reclaim the house. Having Pelosi and her extreme agenda in power will only help a republican candidate in 2012. Without her there, Obama will lay blame on Boehner etc for his shortcomings and the myrmidons will eat it up.

As far as PA goes, its TOOMESDAY!

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Rockym92:

I agree with Field Marshal. Absolute best case scenario for Republicans for the long term would be a 35 seat gain in the house a 6-8 seat gain in the senate and run the table for the governors mansions (8+ pickups).

A republican majority in the house wont make much of a difference in what policy gets made. Being down a few seats in the house and theyll be able to block just about any legislation that they dont like.

Unless the economy of the country drastically improves in the next 2 years, which i really don't think it will, the GOP will be poised for decent gains in the house, huge gains in the senate and taking back the whitehouse in 2012, despite needing 137% of the white vote to do it, right melvin?

Toomey, Paul, Rubio, Buck, Lee, Miller and Angle. With all those candidates still in big senate races, the Tea Party stands to be a big winner in 2010, with 2012 looking just as bright for them. Democrats would be wise to get their own grassroots candidates out there for 2012 so both parties can be shaken up a bit.

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Bukama:

I have to disagree. With majority comes control of the agenda. Once a republican is Speaker instead of Pelosi, the issues Republicans care about will come to the floor. They may lose on votes, but they can force the Democrats to vote (for example - voting on a budget instead of deeming it passed). I agree that not much will change regarding how much legislation gets passed, but it will allow the Republicans to place their concerns in front of the nation, and force Democrats to openly vote against Republican initiatives.

This would be useful heading into 2012. For example, Repuiblicans will allow votes on motions to repeal parts of HCR. Most of the bills will fail (either in the Senate or to Obama vetoes), but then Democrats are on record opposing a Republican initiative that is popular.

Also, while the Republican Speaker will control what comes to the floor of the House, dozens of Rebublican Committee chairs will control what goes in and comes out of committees. This is a critical power in managing policy directions in the Congress.

Finally, while the economy improving will benefit President Obama's reelection prospects, some credit will go to the newly elected Republicans. And I think the economy will improve no matter what happens in the electiosn (I believe economies are cyclical to some extent). So might as well get some credit for it happening on a Republican House' watch. Just like Democrats should get some credit for the decline, since they took over Congress in 2006 and the Recession started being felt in 2007 and strongly in 2008.

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