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PA, IL: 2012 Pres Primary (PPP)

Topics: poll

(PPP release)

Pennsylvania

Public Policy Polling
3/29-4/1/10; 405 likely Republican Primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2012 President: Republican Primary
31% Romney, 27% Huckabee, 27% Palin

Illinois

Public Policy Polling
4/1-5/10; 400 likely Republican Primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2012 President: Republican Primary
34% Romney, 28% Huckabee, 24% Palin

 

Comments
jamesia:

Romney? Good luck with that. The 2012 GOP candidate will have to run against the recent HIR law, and because it's basically what Romney did in MA, he won't be effective. Having Romney run as the GOP candidate will basically reinforce the idea that HIR was a good thing because he'll have to agree with Obama's reasoning for pushing for it. Assuming he'd be running against Obama, of course.

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Beowulf687:

However, if Obama is extremely unpopular in 2012, which I think there is a good chance with how his poll numbers are trending, any solid conservative Republican candidate can could possibly beat him. Romney's major weakness is HC for sure, but I think if the political climate is there he could win.

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Farleftandproud:

I seriously believe the GOP will nominate none of these. I predict it will be a Governor from a deeply red or purple state like Indiana.

One thing I think is so ridiculous that both parties do is when someone runs for the Senate, congress or presidency, likes to campaign against Washington. If America hates Washington politicians so much, why would a candidate want to be one? Both parties have done this and it is stupid because if a Governor runs against a US Rep, it is pointless to always say, "I want to run against Washington" because what they are implying, is that Washington works when their party is in power, but it doesn't when their party isn't in power.

They should be more specific and discuss transorming instead or in the case against Liddy Dole in 2008, Hagan was critical of Dole for spending too much time in Washington. Unless our country has more than one National Capital, it is pointless. Spending more time in your state and less in Washington would be a clearer statement.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"which I think there is a good chance with how his poll numbers are trending, any solid conservative Republican candidate can could possibly beat him."

This is said about every president in their first term. Of course anyone can be beaten. The question is, can the republicans get someone "solid?" I still do not believe for a minute that Huckabee is running. I can't find that he's visited Iowa or New Hampshire lately. Romney and Pawlenty have. Most of Huckabee's Christian conservative votes will probably not go to the Mormon Romney.

Palin gets huge crowds and the republicans are very concerned about the tea party people. I think she has a good chance of winning the nomination. Obviously, the democrats would be love that matchup, just like the republicans had been gearing up to run against Hillary for several years prior to 2008. They had reams of opposition research ready to use against her.

If it's not Palin, it's going to be Thune or Daniels or some other dark horse. Huckabee and Romney won't make it.

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Aaron_in_TX:

What's interesting about this poll is that in both states, all candidates are either within or very close to the margin of error of each other. Any one of them could potentially surge forward.

I doubt Romney will pick up any more support among the primary electorate than he's already got. The passage of health care destroys his credibility. I recall clearly how he worked so hard and spent so much money in IA, NH, FL, CA, etc.. and he flamed out badly.

So Palin and another conservative will likely duke it out. My money is still on Palin at this point.

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Farleftandproud:

Aaron you are right. I predict that by 2012 we will start seeing some positive changes for the good in our health care system, and Romney would look like a fool in running against something he signed into law. I don't think it will be Palin since she is a crazy women who didn't even finish her first term, and isn't even correct. What pisses me off the most is when she critisizes Obama for making AMericans look bad overseas. Obama is being way too nice, and at times I wish he would say more things that are problematic in America.

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Field Marshal:

I think more Americans are pissed that Obama is making Americans look bad overseas. Palin is just one of many.

Obama didn't finish his first term either. LOL.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

This poll tells me that there is a "too" radical factor. I would say that this poll looks bad for conservatives.

I think Republicans are going to be in for a surprise. The economy is improving and we're still months away from the midterms.

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Xenobion:

Republicans have become to "reactionary" is the correct usage of the word. Romney, Palin, and Huckabee are too up to their necks in trouble. Romney on Romneycare, Palin on just being hated, and Huckabee on the Clemmons Clemency. Jindal, Pawlenty, Bachmann, all polarizing figures. If the Republicans don't show their candidate soon I'm afraid its 4 more years of Obama.

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Fred:

I'd like to see some head to head match-ups for Obama vs. these candidates in Pennsylvania. Obama is disliked by most in my state of Pennsylvania right now. When elected, people liked him here, but now, his support is gone. Ed Rendell, our governor, is disliked almost just as much. As for our senators, Bob Casey doesn't create too much noise, so his approval is probably still fairly high. Specter is done. No one here likes him anymore.

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notonegativity:

Fred, back your statement up with some polling that indicates Obama's support is gone. I saw a recent poll and his numbers were good and Casey's whom you assume to be good was around 38%. I'm sure in your circle of conservative people Obama isn't liked but whats that matter because they never did support him.

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Farleftandproud:

I wish Obama was letting overseas countries know just how poor our human rights record was. I disagree with Palin and Liz Cheney, I think Obama hasn't done enough to denounce our nation's past, and our present, and no charges were brought against Gitmo prisoners, yet they were tortured, and starved practicly. I don't care how evil of a person you, are, we don't do that in a Democracy.

Obama I bet would like to say a lot more to foreign governments about our lack of humanity, but he doesn't because he wants to get re-elected. I can't think of a time I have been more angry at conservatives than 2010. They get worse and worse each year.

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Fred:

I know a lot of people who voted for Obama who don't like him anymore. Everywhere I go, I hear people talking bad about Obama, when before the election, everyone was like "that Obama guy seems good." Bob Casey is a liked Senator here (although unknown by most), though I wouldn't vote for him. He's not ultra-liberal, and he is pro-life (Pennsylvania seems to be more pro-life). Many of our congressmen, especially state congressmen are pro-life. Pennsylvania is a fairly conservative state, other than Philadelphia.

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tom:

Obama is making America look bad overseas? Is that a JOKE? My understanding was that if anything he improved our image, although I admit I haven't heard anything RECENTLY. But I'd imagine this healthcare bill didn't tarnish our image in a world where all other civilized countries have coverage for all their citizens. If anything, the Tea Party is embarrassing. Not that I give credence to anything Sarah Palin says anyway. This is the woman who suddenly approves of political correctness when SHE is personally offended.

I will never be convinced Palin is electable until I actually see the electoral college numbers add up in 2012. Talk about the apocalypse.

As for Obama, it's about 50/50, isn't it? I think the approval poll showed 47% to 47%. That's not TERRIBLE. Who knows what will happen with ANY of this in two and a half years, but I'm not ruling out a win for him either. I honestly do not believe Palin could beat him, but that may be partially because I dread the day this nation elects her. For everyone who says Obama is destroying America, all I can think is that 'first woman president Sarah Palin' would destroy my faith in the populace.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Gallup's and Fox News' latest numbers actually showed Obama's numbers lower than usual. Still not Bush territory, however, and about 3-6 points better than Reagan's numbers when unemployment was this high. But not good, nevertheless. Not sure what drove the downturn...maybe people really don't like the nuclear treaty.

Tom, Sarah Palin definitely can win. I think she's got an uphill battle for the general, but it's not impossible, and her path to the republican nomination looks clear at this point. Never underestimate the traditional American distaste for intellectualism. What you say about Palin is the same thing opponents said about Bush, Reagan, Truman, Lincoln, and Jackson. Two years ago, republicans said Obama would never win. They thought it was inconceivable that he could win states like Ohio. They were predicting Dukakis-like numbers. Palin can win. Quitting the governorship may have been the smartest thing she ever did. Now there's no record to attack her on.

I think she would be the weakest candidate, Romney is the one I wouldn't want to be nominated. He has the most credibility. But Palin gets huge crowds and fires up the base unlike the others.

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