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## Articles and Analysis

### PA: Obama 46, McCain 44 (NBC-9/16-18)

##### Topics: PHome

NBC News / Mason-Dixon
9/16-18/08; 625 LV, 3.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania
Obama 46, McCain 44

jamesia:

Obama slight edge with likely voters, no surprise. I think the sample size is small compared to the MOE though.

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rashi2006:

Jamesia
thats a retty funny comment cus MOE is just directly related to sample size. 1000 is around 3% 3000 around 2% and 500 around 5%. no complex formula

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RS:

Actually, there is a straightforward formula to calculate the MOE for a sample size N:
MOE = 0.98/sqrt(N)
More at Wiki/Margin of Error.

No internals? Hmph.
First Read also links to a Nevada poll conducted Wed-Sun last week, essentially tied at McCain 46-45, 600 LV:

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macsuk:

Let the Keating 5 ads begin!!!!!!

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marctx:

This is the state Obama loses the election. The gun and bible clingers are going to shock the world and pull another "Hillary style" McCain victory.

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macsuk:

marctx

Was this a vision or did Palin say it was Gods will?

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NW Patrick:

LOL keep hopin'. If you lose Colorado and VA PA won't even matter. McCain's toast.

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nick-socal:

NW Patrick, Huh? If Obama wins Colorado and Virginia, but McCain wins PA it most CERTAINLY will matter. If this scenario happens it means McCain wins the election. If Obama loses PA but wins VA and CO then Obama STILL has to win either OH or FL to win.

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NW Patrick:

Umm Nick. Man did you take MATH in high school? PA has 21 electoral votes. VA has 13 and CO has 9. 13+9 = 22 So how am I wrong with that scenerio?

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NW Patrick:

And Nick...Obama will win Florida or OH. Mark my words.

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couseydee:

Either way, McCain is not doing as well as he should be in Republican states. If Obama won every state Kerry won, picked up NM (which looks very likely), and picked up CO and NH- he would win without OH and FL.

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nick-socal:

You're wrong because think of it the opposite way. If McCain wins VA and CO, but Obama wins PA, then what? You still have McCain with 274 electoral votes. If Obama wins CO and VA but loses PA then what? You have McCain with 273 electoral votes. I don't know why you're so forceful about this. I feel as if you're a blind partisan. Look, PA hugely matters. If Obama loses PA he absolutely has to win OH or FL. You may think that's a slam dunk for Obama, but I certainly don't.

I'm looking at the electoral map as Obama holds all Kerry states, but also flips IA, NM and CO. Of course Obama wins, but if Obama loses PA, McCain wins. Now if you still use the Kerry map and Obama flips VA, CO, NM, and IA but still loses PA he STILL loses the election. What map are you looking at?

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1magine:

625 LV - I'M SORRY - ARE YOU JOKING? 625 - I was in Philly the other day and more people than that grabbed a hot dog on the corner while I ate lunch. No offense to Mason/ Dixon, but PA is not LA or MS. ITS freaking huge, geographically and population wise. And when school's in session - U of P and Penn State - under and grad school's have more people than most of the towns outside the "T".

If BO has only a 2% margin in PA than he must clearly be down nationally by at least 2-3 points.

This may be the case but I see no evidence of it.

Just to be sure though, I am volunteering the entire first week of October to go door to door in PA.

Hope to see you McCaanites there.

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Tyler:

@NW Patrick

Even though your math is right, VA+CO-PA is not necessarily a win. You're forgetting that the most likely scenario that does not involve winning VA is CO+PA. So essentially you are double-counting Colorado's EVs.

You are saying that in the case where Obama wins PA, CO puts him over the top, but in the case where Obama loses PA, VA+CO make up for PA. ... but in that second scenario, what puts him over the top? It can't be CO again.

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Tyler:

Basically, if Obama loses PA, in order to win he must take VA+CO to make up for PA, and then NV+NH to make up for CO. Either that or take OH or FL. But losing PA and winning OH is incredibly unlikely, so if PA goes red, Obama needs FL or VA+CO+NV+NH, either of which would probably be tougher than keeping PA blue.

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nick-socal:

Tyler, you're absolutely right and thank you for explaining it better than I can to Patrick.

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Evolve:

I'm not real sure why there's so much discussion about PA. In the 22 different polls taken in PA since May 1st McCann hasn't lead a single one, and according to RCP's avg of 1.8, this was similar to the margin that Kerry won by in 2004. I just think before we start dreaming about PA that maybe we should get at least 1 poll to support it.

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couseydee:

Same with Minnesota. The only poll where McCain was ahead here was in January, and he was only up by one per cent.

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spb:

I don't see any mention on this site of the Marist polls of OH, PA and MI, released Friday. They show Obama up among likely voters in each state:
MI Obama 52 McCain 43
OH Obama 47 McCain 45
PA Obama 49 McCain 44
Full results at maristpoll.marist.edu

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falcon79:

i agree
if mccain has NEVER led in a single poll all year, its highly unlikely he will suddenly turn the state red

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Batony:

barracuda:

You seem like one of the ones who will be crying for weeks if Obama loses lol...

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HaloFan:
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KipTin:

FYI: Obama closed ALL offices last week in North Dakota to send his people to PA. What does that tell you?

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couseydee:

@ Kip
I heard all of the Obama people were sent from ND to MN and WI. ND was a very long shot anyway.

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nick-socal:

HaloFan, excellent link, thank you. And I think it's legitimate.

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KipTin:

Thanks for the link to the Slate article. Very good. I enjoy Hitchens because he has no political favorites as well as a very large vocabulary.

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Hey KipTin as I've said before. The fact that he had any people in a state that voted for Bush by 27 points shows he has money to burn and plenty of resources. Which he can now pile into MN, WI and MI.

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mirrorball:

@spb:

The Marist polls were posted on Friday

/blogs/marist_mi_oh_pa_91115.html

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sdf:

It would be useful to see the internals, given that the internals for the Big Ten Battleground poll for PA last week were a bit peculiar (e.g. only 5% of those polled were African American, compared to 13% of the electorate in 2004 exit polls). But I guess that isn't going to happen.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

"This is the state Obama loses the election. The gun and bible clingers are going to shock the world and pull another "Hillary style" McCain victory."

As a PA native I must say AMEN TO THAT! This is where Obambi will lose the election! Also, if these Obamabots think Obambi will steal CO, VA and NV from the McCain, then the koolaid must be stronger than I thought!

PA is going read this year..as is MN and NH...count on it!

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