Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

PA: Obama 46, McCain 44 (NBC-9/16-18)

Topics: PHome

NBC News / Mason-Dixon
9/16-18/08; 625 LV, 3.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania
Obama 46, McCain 44

 

Comments
jamesia:

Obama slight edge with likely voters, no surprise. I think the sample size is small compared to the MOE though.

____________________

rashi2006:

Jamesia
thats a retty funny comment cus MOE is just directly related to sample size. 1000 is around 3% 3000 around 2% and 500 around 5%. no complex formula

____________________

RS:

Actually, there is a straightforward formula to calculate the MOE for a sample size N:
MOE = 0.98/sqrt(N)
More at Wiki/Margin of Error.

No internals? Hmph.
First Read also links to a Nevada poll conducted Wed-Sun last week, essentially tied at McCain 46-45, 600 LV:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/sep/22/poll-nevada-voters-blame-gop-bailouts/

____________________

macsuk:

Let the Keating 5 ads begin!!!!!!

____________________

marctx:

This is the state Obama loses the election. The gun and bible clingers are going to shock the world and pull another "Hillary style" McCain victory.

____________________

macsuk:

marctx

Was this a vision or did Palin say it was Gods will?

____________________

NW Patrick:

LOL keep hopin'. If you lose Colorado and VA PA won't even matter. McCain's toast.

____________________

nick-socal:

NW Patrick, Huh? If Obama wins Colorado and Virginia, but McCain wins PA it most CERTAINLY will matter. If this scenario happens it means McCain wins the election. If Obama loses PA but wins VA and CO then Obama STILL has to win either OH or FL to win.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Umm Nick. Man did you take MATH in high school? PA has 21 electoral votes. VA has 13 and CO has 9. 13+9 = 22 So how am I wrong with that scenerio?

____________________

NW Patrick:

And Nick...Obama will win Florida or OH. Mark my words.

____________________

couseydee:

Either way, McCain is not doing as well as he should be in Republican states. If Obama won every state Kerry won, picked up NM (which looks very likely), and picked up CO and NH- he would win without OH and FL.

____________________

nick-socal:

You're wrong because think of it the opposite way. If McCain wins VA and CO, but Obama wins PA, then what? You still have McCain with 274 electoral votes. If Obama wins CO and VA but loses PA then what? You have McCain with 273 electoral votes. I don't know why you're so forceful about this. I feel as if you're a blind partisan. Look, PA hugely matters. If Obama loses PA he absolutely has to win OH or FL. You may think that's a slam dunk for Obama, but I certainly don't.

I'm looking at the electoral map as Obama holds all Kerry states, but also flips IA, NM and CO. Of course Obama wins, but if Obama loses PA, McCain wins. Now if you still use the Kerry map and Obama flips VA, CO, NM, and IA but still loses PA he STILL loses the election. What map are you looking at?

____________________

1magine:

625 LV - I'M SORRY - ARE YOU JOKING? 625 - I was in Philly the other day and more people than that grabbed a hot dog on the corner while I ate lunch. No offense to Mason/ Dixon, but PA is not LA or MS. ITS freaking huge, geographically and population wise. And when school's in session - U of P and Penn State - under and grad school's have more people than most of the towns outside the "T".

If BO has only a 2% margin in PA than he must clearly be down nationally by at least 2-3 points.

This may be the case but I see no evidence of it.

Just to be sure though, I am volunteering the entire first week of October to go door to door in PA.

Hope to see you McCaanites there.

____________________

Tyler:

@NW Patrick

Even though your math is right, VA+CO-PA is not necessarily a win. You're forgetting that the most likely scenario that does not involve winning VA is CO+PA. So essentially you are double-counting Colorado's EVs.

You are saying that in the case where Obama wins PA, CO puts him over the top, but in the case where Obama loses PA, VA+CO make up for PA. ... but in that second scenario, what puts him over the top? It can't be CO again.

____________________

Tyler:

Basically, if Obama loses PA, in order to win he must take VA+CO to make up for PA, and then NV+NH to make up for CO. Either that or take OH or FL. But losing PA and winning OH is incredibly unlikely, so if PA goes red, Obama needs FL or VA+CO+NV+NH, either of which would probably be tougher than keeping PA blue.

____________________

nick-socal:

Tyler, you're absolutely right and thank you for explaining it better than I can to Patrick.

____________________

Evolve:

I'm not real sure why there's so much discussion about PA. In the 22 different polls taken in PA since May 1st McCann hasn't lead a single one, and according to RCP's avg of 1.8, this was similar to the margin that Kerry won by in 2004. I just think before we start dreaming about PA that maybe we should get at least 1 poll to support it.

____________________

couseydee:

Same with Minnesota. The only poll where McCain was ahead here was in January, and he was only up by one per cent.

____________________

spb:

I don't see any mention on this site of the Marist polls of OH, PA and MI, released Friday. They show Obama up among likely voters in each state:
MI Obama 52 McCain 43
OH Obama 47 McCain 45
PA Obama 49 McCain 44
Full results at maristpoll.marist.edu

____________________

falcon79:

i agree
if mccain has NEVER led in a single poll all year, its highly unlikely he will suddenly turn the state red

____________________

Batony:

barracuda:

You seem like one of the ones who will be crying for weeks if Obama loses lol...

____________________

HaloFan:
____________________

KipTin:

FYI: Obama closed ALL offices last week in North Dakota to send his people to PA. What does that tell you?

____________________

couseydee:

@ Kip
I heard all of the Obama people were sent from ND to MN and WI. ND was a very long shot anyway.

____________________

nick-socal:

HaloFan, excellent link, thank you. And I think it's legitimate.

____________________

KipTin:

Thanks for the link to the Slate article. Very good. I enjoy Hitchens because he has no political favorites as well as a very large vocabulary.

____________________

Adrian B:

Hey KipTin as I've said before. The fact that he had any people in a state that voted for Bush by 27 points shows he has money to burn and plenty of resources. Which he can now pile into MN, WI and MI.

____________________

mirrorball:

@spb:

The Marist polls were posted on Friday

/blogs/marist_mi_oh_pa_91115.html

____________________

sdf:

It would be useful to see the internals, given that the internals for the Big Ten Battleground poll for PA last week were a bit peculiar (e.g. only 5% of those polled were African American, compared to 13% of the electorate in 2004 exit polls). But I guess that isn't going to happen.


____________________

sotonightthatimightsee:

"This is the state Obama loses the election. The gun and bible clingers are going to shock the world and pull another "Hillary style" McCain victory."

As a PA native I must say AMEN TO THAT! This is where Obambi will lose the election! Also, if these Obamabots think Obambi will steal CO, VA and NV from the McCain, then the koolaid must be stronger than I thought!

PA is going read this year..as is MN and NH...count on it!

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR