PA: Obama 48, McCain 38 (Muhlenberg-10/2-6)
Eric Dienstfrey | October 7, 2008
Topics: PHome
Muhlenberg College / Morning Call
10/2-6/08; 589 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Pennsylvania
Obama 48, McCain 38
By Eric Dienstfrey | October 7, 2008 12:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (45) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments
Gallup Daily: 9-Point Obama Lead Ties Campaign High
McP"al"inocchio is a big JOKE
Nice to know Obama doesn't have to spend time of money here...can lock up Colo, Fl & Va.
Gallup Daily: 9-Point Obama Lead Ties Campaign High
McPalinocchio is a big JOKE
Gallup
O 51% M 42%
Good luck winning at 42% boomcrap!!
New Minnesota Public Radio Poll:
Obama 54 McCain 40
http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/cspg/pdf/HHH_MPR_October_President.pdf
Why is PA not dark blue yet?
It's looking safer and safer Obama territory every day.
@CaptainPatent
Good question!
And I give McPalinocchio one more week before pulling out of PA as they did for MI last week
Oh, SNAP!
boomcrap
Are you in a meeting? The race is getting tight!
Yawn. This is fun. I hope these #'s hold so I enjoy the HISTORIC moment rejoiced around the World when President OBAMA is announced the winnner. I'll probably cry.
the bradley factor-- thats why PA is not dark blue yet --- but i really hope i am wrong
Boom/Kip:
Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.
Reject the emperor and darth palin...Join us.
14% registered democrat advantage? Mmmmkay.
@masselo
No offense to you but I think you're wrong in this specific case. If it's not dark blue on pollster that doesn't mean it's not either elsewhere, for instance on RCP it's dark blue. The reason is just they don't use the same methodology of aggregating polls
Two Muhlenberg polls:
Muhlenberg 10/2-6/08 589 LV
McCain 38 Obama 48 Undecided 10
Muhlenberg 9/27-10/1/08 610 LV
McCain 41 Obama 50 Undecided 7
McCain -3
Obama -2
Undecided +3
I really do not see why you guys are getting so excited.
@Raleigh,
Someone dug up the numbers of registered voters, and I'm pretty sure that 14% dem advantage was right on the nose.
What are you talking about... mysticlaker? Have you exited reality?
I am getting all excited because no way McCain will overcome a 10% deficit in PA with less than 28 days for election day. At this point, time and money will make them run to other places as well :0)
@Raleigh
This is PA we're talking about here. It's a majority Dem state by a large percentage. 14% probably isn't that far off base. Now, a lot of those Dems are conservative-to-moderate Reagan Dems who haven't voted for a Dem for president since Clinton (if they even voted for him). But they'll still identify themselves as Dems.
you're right KipTin. It's still within McCain's grasp. He should set up shop right in the middle of downtown Scranton and turn PA red! I wish you were a McCain staffer.
McCain really needs to get the hell out of PA and return to FL in force.
The PA tracker has Obama maintaining a double-digit lead there. Another PA poll, soon to be released, also has Obama ahead by 10 points in PA. See:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/06/wcunpr_poll_obama_ahead_by_ten_in_pennsylvania.html
SUSA has just released a PA poll showing a 15-point Obama lead.
Yesterday, right-leaning Rasmussen substituted MO for PA in his swing state polls for FOX news. Why? They know PA is no longer a swing state.
Still, McCain and/or Palin will spend time in the state in the week upcoming. Similarly, McCain spent time in IA last week, and in NM yesterday. This use of his time would seem to be wasted time.
With less than 4 weeks to go before election day, recent polls indicate that McCain's best strategy is simply to try to hold as many Bush states as possible. If he wins all of the Bush states except for IA and NM, then he will win the election. If he also loses NV, then his best chance at breaking the electoral vote tie is probably to pickup 1 EV in ME.
@masselo
What do you mean by "the Bradley factor"? Why would people tell pollsters they are supporting Obama when they are actually supporting McCain?
If anything, McCain supporters might masquerade as "undecided," but I think fewer and fewer people are playing that game as we get closer to the election and face a world-wide economic meltdown. People are telling the pollsters what their preferences are.
Now if you are saying that pollsters' demographic models are flawed, that is a different issue. There are posters on this site (and people on the ground in different parts of PA) who are much more knowledgeable than I am about how to weight various demographics in PA.
People seem to have seen enough and are making up their minds now. Small chance if any for McCain.
jamesia, that's happening, as it also is in MN, WI, and soon NM. But this time they won't be stupid enough to annnounce it like in MI (thereby not ticking off the state's GOP water-carriers and also showing signs of a "retreat.")
Did you not notice that voters are moving back to "undecided?" Therefore, my question about why does this poll "excite" you?
News Update:
John McCain is suspending his campaign to work on the political crisis facing the nation: The implosion of the Republican Party!
Hopefully we can all come together in the spirit of bipartisanship to help John McCain appear more presidential than Ronald McDonald!
John McCain, we love to see you cry!
It's over... OK delusional right wingers... admit that Barack was right... there are no red states, there are no blue states, just Obama states....and of course the ever-popular "state of denial".
"Gallup Daily: 9-Point Obama Lead Ties Campaign High
McP"al"inocchio is a big JOKE"
Reuters / C-SPAN / Zogby
10/4-6/08; 1,237 LV, 2.8%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
National
Obama 48, McCain 45
Diageo/Hotline
10/04-06,08; 908 LV 3.3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
National
Obama 46, McCain 44
American Research Group
10/4-6/08; 1,200 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
National
Obama 49, McCain 45
CBS Poll: Presidential Race Tightens
Survey Shows Obama Leading McCain 47 Percent To 43 Percent Among Registered Voters Nationwide Following V.P. Debate
Comments Comments1745
Oct. 6, 2008
GO AHEAD AND CHERRYPICK YOUR POLL, FOOL!
HOPE YOU'RE AS UPBEAT WHEN THEY CALL MOST STATES FOR MCCAIN ON NOV. 4TH LOL..WOULD PAY TO SEE YOUR DUMB FACE!
Guys, the Obama strategy was to corner McCain, which is exactly where he is right now. Even Karl Rove said it this past Sunday, Obama brought the fight to the Republican turf, which is exactly what candidates want. McCain is defending and Obama is attacking.
*Again, a 10% deficit is virtually impossible. By the way there is another poll, SurveyUsa that has Obama up by 15%. Those are too big of numbers to overcome in less than 28 days, with McCain having to campaign/defend other states :-)
Kip - Are you friggin serious? What drugs are you taking" How can you honestly say that you "don't understand" by Obama supporters are excited? The end of Republican destruction of this cooutry is nearly over. Barack will work for years to clean up this Bush mess... it is not easy to follow the worst president in US history when he has left this country raped, but we finally have someone who can give us hope and thoughtful leadership.
Look at the numbers 4 years ago:
Muhlenberg | 10/17-10/22 787 RV 3.5
Bush 46 Kerry 48 - Kerry +2
Obama is right at the same level of support that Kerry had with this pollster 4 years ago, McCain? Oh, oh, he is underperforming Bush by 8%, Bush 46%, McCain 38%.
Keep it up McSame, please :-)
The "bradley effect" has diminished over the years. In fact, bradley won the actual election-day vote, he got beat by the mail-in vote ground game the republican put into place.
There may in fact be a reverse bradley effect, in that people would not tell someone they'd vote for a black guy but might get in the election booth, think about their financial situation, and say to themselves "hey, his mother was white" and pull the lever for him.
We'll see. Cell phones are still getting left out, and though cell phones didn't help kerry much in '04 it's been four years and obama has a lot of youth vote that kerry didn't.
Q. What does Obama and Osama Bilandin have in common?
A. They both know people that have bombed the Pentagon.
Who's Osama "Bilandin?"
@sotonightthatimightsee
"GO AHEAD AND CHERRYPICK YOUR POLL, FOOL!
HOPE YOU'RE AS UPBEAT WHEN THEY CALL MOST STATES FOR MCCAIN ON NOV. 4TH LOL..WOULD PAY TO SEE YOUR DUMB FACE!"
you're a fr**king bitter As*hole ...
While you are accusing me of "cherrypicking" the Gallup poll you are doing the same by dismissing from your list the Ras one showing +8 for Obama. Actually you're the one who is cherrypicking polls cause you're making a list while ignoring the Ras one.I was announcing a just-released poll, check the time idiot
Go ahead, who cares that you're going to vote for Bush 3 times in a row, it won't be enough to put McPalinocchio over the top
Imbecile!
"Q. What does Obama and Osama Bilandin have in common?"
If that is a real mistake this is the funniest thing ever! And then you wonder why people think most of the Republican base is stupid...
@Raleigh
You do understand that PA is the only battleground state, perhaps in the whole country, that has somehow managed to rack up a net decrease in republican voter registration.
jFactor
sorry for the typo ......but thats funny, I don't care who you are.
I will write osama bin laden 100 times.
Osama Bilandin at your airport anyday now.
BREAKING NEWS
John McCain sat on the board of a private group that supplied aid to the Contras, rebels in Latin America, and OSAMA BIN LADEN.
The McCain campaign, in a statement to Politico, defended the efforts of the council. Brian Rogers, a spokesman, said that the Senator "disassociated himself" from the group "when questions were raised about its activities, but that in no way diminishes his leadership role in ensuring that the forces of democracy and freedom prevailed in Central America."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/why-mccains-time-with-cou_n_132470.html
@RaleighNC:
"14% registered democrat advantage? Mmmmkay."
I know all these polls are depressing for McSame fans, but don't be lazy go to the PA SoS website and see what the voter statistics are.
Democrats hold at least a 14% registration advantage in Pennsylvania. As of April it was 14% and change. Since that time the Democrats have added about 150,000 new voters, while the GOP has added about 30,000 new voters.
We are days away from McSame pulling out of Pennsylvania. McSame has no chance to carry any Kerry State and his election hopes come down to him defending VA, CO, Fl, NV, NC, OH, MO and IN. He doesn't have the money or the message to carry all those States. Obama is going to win half of them.
Pollster has posted 2 PA polls today, 1 showing a 10-point Obama lead and the other showing a 15-point Obama lead. 2 other PA polls have also been released today, 1 from right-leaning Rasmussen (showing a 13-point Obama lead) and 1 from NPR (showing a 10-point Obama lead). See:
&
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/06/wcunpr_poll_obama_ahead_by_ten_in_pennsylvania.html
Obama is now outspending McCain by more than 1 million dollars in order to seal his victory in PA. Biden, Hillary, and Bill Clinton campaign there together this weekend. Palin (with McCain?) wastes a day of campaigning in PA tomorrow.
What do Sarah Palin and John Wilkes Booth have in common?
Both supporters of anti-American secessionist movements!
Sarah Palin - Country* first.
*the Independent Republic of Alaska, that is.
Landslide Baby Landslide!
Posted on October 7, 2008 1:04 PM