10/20-26/08; 761 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 50, McCain 41
Looks like the beginning of a McCain . . .
Posted on October 27, 2008 4:46 PM
PA is out of McCain's reach, he doesn't have the time or the money to close a nine point gap, especially now that the economy, stevens and Obama's infomercial will grab most of the rmeaining news cycles
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:07 PM
eh let's go PA stay double digit blue
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:16 PM
Obama's luck has run out.
His own words damn him......redistribute wealth!!
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:17 PM
Obama has a consistent lead in PA ranging from 7-12 points. Obama has a better chance of winning Arizona and Georgia that McCain has of stealing away PA.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:19 PM
Is Obama planning to make anymore stops in Pennsylvania? He should campaign there a few more times to help hold it down.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:20 PM
Well, we all know that John Chaney coached the Temple men's basketball team for years and that he's black, so obviously this poll is biased.
I figure that's as good a reason as any for the right wing chorus to ignore yet another poll which makes it clear PA is going for Obama.
Assuming this poll is accurate, with all the stumping McCain is doing in PA it would have been really embarrassing if the polls didn't move in his direction at least a little bit...
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:21 PM
DOH....Obama's own words came back to haunt him.
This is the beginning of the end for Obama:
What goes around comes around.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:25 PM
The previous Temple Univ. poll:
03/27 - 04/09 1175 RV -- Obama 47 McCain 40
So, in 7 months McCain has moved from 40 to 41, is this supossed to be a proof of McCain success in PA?
Obama moved from 47 to 50 in the within the same time, how does this probe that Obama is doing bad in PA?
Oh, well :-)
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:26 PM
This poll moved in Obama's direction. Granted, it's been about seven months since their last poll, and this is LV, not RV, but Obama is up 2 and at the magic 50% mark:
Temple 10/20-26 (3/27-4/9 in parenthesis)
Obama 50 (47)
McCain 41 (40)
Obama +3, McCain +1 = 2 point Obama swing
Looking BAD for McCain. Obama has almost a 5 point lead in OH(!) according to the pollster estimate. 6.7 point lead in CO, 7.5 point lead in VA.
How does McCain win this thing? The resident wingnuts are very good at repeating whatever is posted on Drudge or redstate.com today, but seem absolutely unable to provide a viable electoral map for McCain.
In 2004 Temple Univ.
Temple Univ | 10/22-27 1488 LV 4.0
Bush 47 Kerry 48 - Kerry +1
So, Bush was trailing Kerry by 1% at this exact time 4 years ago, but somehow McCain's got Obama exactly where he wanted? :-)
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:29 PM
Speaking of Temple.. I just got this mailer from the Republican Jewish Coalition with the headline:
Concerned About Barack Obama? You Should Be. (in menacing bold letters)
So I thought I'd respond in kind... My response, verbatim:
suject: Just got your mailer..
And let me tell you, uncategorically.. Get Bent!
It's your group's prerogative to align yourselves with a party who has sold their soul to the fanatical Christian Fundamentalist movement whose biblical priorities include the destruction of Israel to usher in the new era of Christ. But your political affiliation will soon go the way of total obscurity like the other turncoat, Joe Lieberman. Best of luck to both of you!
p.s. nice oh-so-subtle use of Obama's picture speaking to a large crowd.. in Germany! Oh what a truly subliminal use of imagery!
p.p.s. My 20 Jewish neighbors and I here on Miami Beach all voted early.. for Barack Obama! Shalom!
- The Rosen family
Miami Beach, FL
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:31 PM
scottkj I hate to point this out to you but you are one of the FEW in the US talking about some Obama socialist BOMBSHELL. Did it ever occur to you there is a REASON the REAL MEDIA doesn't pick up in this BULL****? Hmmm Maybe it's NOT news you stupid ****.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:34 PM
scottkj: Nice conclusion regarding that redistribution thing being the demise of Obama. The last thing most of us want is for the billionaires that destroyed this economy through their greed to actually pay for part of the bailout.
Since you don't know how to decipher poll numbers, I suggest you just go back to listening to talk radio--they will continue to fill you in.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:36 PM
Obama's luck has run out.
His own words damn him......redistribute wealth!!
You guys slay me! LOL
Obama goes form a 7% lead to a 9% lead and you think you are winning.....this is NOT golf dummy...HIGH score wins!
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:39 PM
McCain Surge Continues... !!!
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:42 PM
Obama says, "Redistribute wealth"
Yeah. Just like John McCain's self-professed "hero" Teddy Roosevelt who was one of the first major national political figures to advocate a progressive (redistributive) income tax and an even more sharply redistributive tax on inherited wealth--and was accused of holding "socialist" or even "communist" views by critics within his own party.
Just like Teddy's distant cousin Franklin Roosevelt, who advocated a vast national redistributive scheme to tax current wage and salary earners and redistribute the proceeds to retirees, the disabled, and dependent survivors of those who died premature deaths---a scheme branded by the Republicans of his day as "socialist." We now know it simply as Social Security.
Just like conservative economist Milton Friedman, the first to propose a "Negative Income Tax," a redistributive tax on more affluent wage and salary earners, distributing the proceeds to the lowest income Americans who instead of paying taxes would receive a guaranteed check from the government---an idea later enthusiastically endorsed by Republican President Richard Nixon and enacted in slimmed-down form as the Earned Income Tax Credit, signed into law by Nixon's Republican successor, President Gerald Ford, and later proudly expanded by another Republican President, Ronald Reagan, who heralded the EITC as "the best anti-poverty, the best pro-family, the best job creation measure to come out of Congress."
Yeah, that Obama's a dangerous radical and a socialist all right, with his crazy redistributivist tax ideas. Just like Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, Milton Friedman, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Ronald Reagan. Way out of the American mainstream, that.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:07 PM
The challenger has to get above 45% while the person in the lead has to get below 50%...too late, not enough money, not enough organization. DOH!
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:09 PM
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:10 PM
"p.s. nice oh-so-subtle use of Obama's picture speaking to a large crowd.. in Germany! Oh what a truly subliminal use of imagery!"
Did not Fox News or some other right wing media say that Obama sounds like Hitler?! I hope the McCain campaign will have so much self-respect left not to get down to that level of insult! But somehow I wouldn`t be so surprised anymore if they actually did...
But don`t get complacent! Remember: Truman was already counted out in 1948. Although I have read their polling was quite terrible as they did it by phoning up people but a lot of Truman´s supporters had no phone and hence were undersampled ;-)
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:35 PM
Another proof of McMaverick's surge:
THE POLL: The poll of 600 likely voters statewide was conducted Oct. 23-26 by Suffolk
THE NUMBERS: Obama 49% McCain 44%/ Obama +5
Previous Suffolk poll:
Suffolk/WSVN 09/27 - 09/30 600 LV --
Obama 46 McCain 42/ Obama +4
See? McMaverick with his "mavericky" ways is always on the surge :-)!!!!!
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:40 PM
Well said. McMaverick is on a "mavericky" surge that no one can see but it is there :-)
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:43 PM
"Although I have read their polling was quite terrible as they did it by phoning up people but a lot of Truman´s supporters had no phone and hence were undersampled ;-)"
They'll have to pry my Pennsylvania phone from my cold, dead fingers.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:47 PM
These Repubicans sound like us last time, except we had more and better evidence that Kerry might pull it out. I mean all he needed to do was surge 2 points rather than 7.
I can't wait until that election eve poll of PA showing Obama +7 or something and the inevitable "McCain surges!!!" posts. Maybe an exit poll will leak showing Obama only up +5 and we'll get election day posts about McCain surging late.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:49 PM
Not enough Democrats in this poll. The ID advantage was only 6% -- Democrats account for 51% of registered voters in Pennsylvania, while Republicans account for 37%. Maybe give the GOP a couple points for the likely voter screening off of total registered, not much maybe 2 or 3%.
Obama is going to win Pennsylvania by at least 10%, probably closer to 15%. Remember Santorum losing to Casey by 19% -- that wasn't a fluke. Pennsylvania is deep blue and there is no possible way that McCain can win it. He doesn't have the necessary money, message or persona.
So if McCain or Palin tells you that the GOP is going to carry Pennsylvania, it is just another instance of them lying.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:02 PM
McCain has to have some kind of remotely possible scenario by which he might win. He's chosen PA for this fiction...the state where he can win back enough EVs to counter his losses in IA, CO and NM. (Assuming that is, he can somehow hold all the other Bush '04 states.)
McCain's picked PA because it's blue collar, it's got 21 EVs, and it doesn't have early voting. That means, in the McCain mentality, that some last minute October Surprise might reverse the present 10 point deficeit and give him a miraculous victory.
It's a very thin reed, but it's the best that they've got to cling to. If McCain can't give the faithful some kind of fairy tale version of a possible victory, they're not going to turn out.
Sorry, GOPers, but in this case, reality has a liberal bias.
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:15 PM
Poll has 4% blacks in it. Population of PA is 11% blacks. Blacks are breaking for Obama > 95%. If they had gotten their sampling right, this would have been a 13 point lead.
Posted on October 27, 2008 10:31 PM
CREEP, CREEP, CREEP ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE, MACK!!!!!!
PA'S GOING RED BABY..COUNT ON IT!!!!!
Posted on October 28, 2008 12:09 AM
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