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PA: Obama 52, McCain 42 (Muhlenberg 10/16-20)

Topics: PHome

Muhlenberg College
10/16-10/20
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania 600 LV, 4%
Obama 52, McCain 42

 

Comments
C.S.Strowbridge:

If McCain's strategy is to win Pennsylvania to win the election, he's in serious trouble.

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Dan:

well PA doesn't do early voting apparently. McCain's internal polling must suggest that Obama's support, while great, is also soft.

Watch McCain to pull some racist or otherwise outrageous stunt in these last two weeks to try and flip those PA voters.

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Dan:

Obama's support in PA is quite soft. This is a big Clinton state. If Hillary/Bill continue to campaign for him here, it's no contest. Even if they don't, I don't see McCain winning here. He's better off holding onto NC, VA, MO, OH, and FL. Bush won twice without PA, and neither Gore nor Kerry wre huge favorites there. I also don't see him trying anything racist in PA. That might work down south, but not here.

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SoloBJ:

I would like to see Hillary and Bill come back here. This poll had Obama up by 16 over a week ago when the Clintons campaigned there and then it went down to 12 points some days ago. Now, it's a 10 point lead which is still good but I don't want to see the lead continue to dip.

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maddiekat:

Obama's support has not slipped he is still at 52%

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SoloBJ:

@ maddiekat:,
That's true. Since PA is a big part of McCain's strategy, I just don't want to see it tighten too much down the stretch.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Obama's support is soft?

From this poll:

Definitely voting for (O): 85%
Definitely voting for (M): 84%

I don't see it.

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jonny87:

@BarackO'Clinton

im not sure how definite they will be if wrights pulled out.

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muckinello:

I am in PA and continue to be worried. As Dan said we don't do early voting (except absentee). I will continue to work for Obama but expect the polls to drop a bit.
There is great excitement and motivation on our side but I live in the city and I know that PA is defined as Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Alabama in between. Sometime I am ashamed to admit that it is right.
I was upset to see a report on '538' that indicates how there are deep pockets of racism in my state.
That is why we will not relax!

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Washingtonian1:

McCain's only chance is to steal Pennsylvania. His campaign realizes he won't carry Iowa, New Mexico, or Colorado -- and may well lose Nevada, et. al. He needs to go big because there are otherwise numerous routes to defeat.

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mj1:

We have been there and done that with Rev Wright. Twice, and Obama weathered the storm each time. If they break the Rev Wright stuff, it will be seen as the desparation tactic that it is by the losing side firing the last bullet in their gun.

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angrytoxicologist:

+/- 4%

You can expect a some noise. Support has probably plateaued/troughed for both, but to say it was started a tightening trend is premature.

Is 'troughed' a word? If not, I hereby claim it in the name of Pollster.

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SoloBJ:

Aside from one poll, Obama still maintains a double digit lead in PA according to all the other polls so I'm not saying the race has tightened. Like muckinello, I do have a bit of concern though seeing how McCain will most likely try to appeal to the "racism" factor there over the next two weeks. I do agree that bringing up the Wright issue will look like total desperation. It may work in his favor to a certain extent but it can also backfire in his face like the Ayers issue did.

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DTM:

Just a reminder about some broader trends in this polls:

Two weeks ago it was O 48, M 38, Other 3%, Undecided 10%. One week ago it was O 51, M 38, Other 4%, Undecided 7%. And now it is O 52, M 42, Other 2%, Undecided 5%.

So from two weeks ago, basically what happened is that some people in the other/undecided categories broke to Obama and McCain, and roughly in an even ratio. But it appears the Obama people happened to break first, which is how one week ago Obama took a slightly larger lead.

All that said, if Obama dips for a prolonged period below 50, then it is definitely game on in Pennsylvania. So that is what I would watch for.

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DTM:

Oh, and just a commentary on the nature of the state (which I happen to know fairly well):

Not surprisingly, the Philly/Pittsburgh/Alabama-in-between thing is a bit of an overstatement. Most notably for political purposes, there are large suburb/exurb regions around both Philly and Pittsburgh, and these more or less represent the crucial swing districts in the state.

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Trosen:

McCain's only shot is to somehow swing PA. It's about a 100-1 shot. But he realizes there's no way he's going to run the table on all the 2004 Bush states.

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s.b.:

At the beginning of this track 10/16 Obama was ahead by 16. Now his lead has dropped to 10. That means that polling, last night showed a significantly tighter race than 10 points.

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ErnieLynch:

DTM:
Oh, and just a commentary on the nature of the state (which I happen to know fairly well):

Not surprisingly, the Philly/Pittsburgh/Alabama-in-between thing is a bit of an overstatement. Most notably for political purposes, there are large suburb/exurb regions around both Philly and Pittsburgh, and these more or less represent the crucial swing districts in the state.

---

Agreed. And every forgets Cente county and Penn State. Thats Obama county.

Obama even has a office in DuBois, PA

McCain has hardly any offices in the T.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

"C.S.Strowbridge:

If McCain's strategy is to win Pennsylvania to win the election, he's in serious trouble."

HAHAHAHAHA, YOU WISH!

Notice how your messiah's lead has been steadily dwindling! If I was Obambi I'd be very nervous!! This state will come down to the last vote..Philly alone won't save him..believe that!

Signed: A true PA resident!

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political_junki:

@s.b:
If you look at the numbers, Obama isnt losing support even though it is tighter now, and he is 50+. That would make it really difficult for McSame to win. Also notice the Fav/UnFavos for McSame and Palin. and the fact that 95%!!! Are almost sure they will vote for the guy they support.
McCain has only one hope to hold on to in PA:
Racism

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