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PA: Obama 52, McCain 45 (Muhlenberg-10/28-11/1)

Topics: PHome

Muhlenberg College
10/28 - 11/1/08; 599 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania
Obama 52, McCain 45

 

Comments
Trosen:

Obama still over 50. I think we're good. The PPP poll should look good too.

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MsJohnson:

50+. Looks good. McCain is reaping the benefits of a lot of face time in PA. But too little, too late.

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VA Dem:

It's going to be hard for McCain to win if Obama receives 52% of the vote.

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cinnamonape:

Whatever surge that this poll was detecting seems to have stalled. There ain't enough undecideds.

Pennsylvania

10/28-11/1 600 LV 45 52 - - - 3 +7D
10/27-31/08 604 LV 44 52 - - 1 4 +8D
10/22-26/08 589 LV 40 53 - - 2 5 +13D
10/17-21/08 594 LV 41 52 - - 2 5 +11D
10/12-16/08 602 LV 39 53 - - 2 7 +14D

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MDB1974:

ok, did this poll have a 13 point lead this morning?

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Centrist_Dem:

@MDB1974

No, that was several days ago, and the only real change is repubs (and consistently repub-voting dems, of which there are many in Western PA) coming home to McCain -- Obama's numbers are pretty stable.

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dat179:

McCain has been closing fast in PA. Even if Obama wins the election, loosing PA would be a huge hit to the Democratic party. Eitherway, loosing PA will greatly reduce Obama's chances of winning the election.

McCain has been focusing on PA much more than Obama in the last two weeks. Recently the Obama campaign has announced that they will be spending time and money in several new states that have always gone Republican, including Arizona. I think this is a mistake. It spreads the campaign too thin, takes the focus from the important states like PA, and we have zero chance of winning these states.

We can not loose PA just because we want to show off by campaigning in Arizona.

Let's get serious and leave Arizona alone!!!!

Please come back to PA!!!!

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sunnymi:


@MDB1974, it had an O+8 this morning and the latest release is O+7.

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jswarren:

"10/28-11/1 600 LV 45 52 - - - 3 +7D
10/27-31/08 604 LV 44 52 - - 1 4 +8D
10/22-26/08 589 LV 40 53 - - 2 5 +13D
10/17-21/08 594 LV 41 52 - - 2 5 +11D
10/12-16/08 602 LV 39 53 - - 2 7 +14D"

That's not accurate data

Pollster.com screwed up in reporting today's poll. They reported it as if the most recent 1 day result was the 5 day avg. If you went to the poll website, this was confirmed. Today's tracking poll 5 day avg. was 10 point lead.

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jswarren:

+7 is almost assuredly just Saturday's 1 day result as +8 was Friday's 1 day result. When we have a link to the official results, we'll know for sure.

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freedomreigns:

Trosen and VA Dem are correct. The ONLY number that matters is Obama's. If he is above 50, he wins, otherwise, he's potentially in trouble.

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Great American:

I disagree that Obama should put all of his eggs in the PA basket. He's already got a lot of volunteer there and he is running as many or more ads than McCain. What is consistent in all of these PA polls is that Obama's support has not dropped. McCains people are just coming home. By forcing McCain to play defense in these red states like OH, MO, AZ, IN, and GA he increases his overall chances. If he can pick off one of these states it's over. And playing in these states demoralizes the republicans. They are so used taking these states for granted that they do not know how to play defense in them. McCain does not have a good ground game in these traditional red states. I say go for it! 50 state strategy.

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cinnamonape:

So maybe we are talking about a very small sample size and big MOE if they simply extracted one day out of their multiple day survey?

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Ockham:

@dat179

Arizona has not always gone Republican. Clinton won it in 1996 - and he won Georgia in 1992. If Obama is up by 6-8 points nationally, it's not surprising that these states are in play.

Tomorrow, Obama and Biden will be in Ohio and Florida respectively - winning either of those states would be perfectly adequate insurance for an upset in PA.

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Ockham:

@ Great American

I strongly agree. The smart thing for Obama to do at this stage is to open up as many realistic paths to victory in the Electoral College as possible. In that sense, relying on PA is the higher risk strategy.

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political_junki:

This is from PPP:
-------------------------------------------------
Chill Out
We've done enough interviews in Pennsylvania the last couple days to be pretty confident in saying Obama has nothing to worry about there.

And I know some will say, 'yeah but you screwed up the primary there.' But the mistake we made was not anything specific to Pennsylvania, we fixed it by the next set of primaries and we were number one on the Survey USA report cards for every primary we polled after it- Indiana, North Carolina, and Oregon.

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cinnamonape:

Here's Muehlenbergs Tracking Poll over October

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/Release_10_27.pdf.pdf


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sandman:

Down to the wire, Va. still too close to call, poll shows


Swing state

Should Virginia vote Democratic, Barack Obama probably will win the White House. But should McCain hold the state, the result could portend a McCain comeback nationally.

By Dale Eisman
Warren Fiske
The Virginian-Pilot
© November 1, 2008

The earliest signs of who will be the next president might spring from Virginia and how undecided white voters such as John Morris and Sidney Blankenbeckler cast their ballots.

"I'm pretty disappointed in Republicans right now, and I don't think John McCain is offering a lot that's new," said Morris, a retired Navy captain who lives in Chesterfield County, a prosperous Richmond suburb. "But frankly, I'm scared of Obama and some of the things he's been talking about."

Three hundred miles west, in tiny Sugar Grove, a farming and manufacturing community deep in the Appalachians, Blankenbeckler worries that a McCain victory would mean "four more years of kind of dragging along" but that Obama might be "borderline Socialist." Blankenbeckler said he is trying to decide "which is least worst."

Virginia will be among the first states to report results Tuesday night, and should it vote Democratic for the first time in a presidential race since 1964 - as many polls suggest - Barack Obama probably will win the White House. But should McCain hold the state, the result could portend a McCain comeback nationally.

A new poll commissioned by The Virginian-Pilot concludes the state remains up for grabs. The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat.

The telephone survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. on Wednesday and Thursday.

J. Bradford Coker, who oversaw the survey, said the ultimate outcome in Virginia and elsewhere might hinge on whether undecided white voters are willing to vote for Obama, who would be the nation's first African American president.

The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation's first black governor.

Like Obama, Wilder had a small but clear lead in late polls. But on election night, in a phenomenon that came to be known in Virginia as "the Wilder effect," an unexpectedly large Republican vote in predominately white precincts brought GOP nominee Marshall Coleman within a whisker - four-tenths of 1 percentage point - of victory.

Coker said "almost all" of the undecided white voters broke for Coleman on Election Day; a similar break this year could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to McCain.

The same phenomenon occurred in North Carolina's 1990 U.S. Senate race. Democrat Harvey Gantt, an African American, led by 4 percentage points in the final poll only to lose by 6 points on Election Day to Republican Jesse Helms.

"The million-dollar question is whether there will be a Wilder/Gantt effect in the 2008 presidential race," Coker said. "No matter what anyone theorizes, the answer today is that no one knows for sure."

In addition to Virginia, Coker said, the effect could tilt the scales to McCain in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, said he normally expects about a 2 percent dip in white support for a black candidate on Election Day - not enough, he predicted, to tilt victory to McCain nationally or in Virginia.

And Obama's campaign might have insulated its candidate against any drop-off in white support, Sabato said, by registering millions of new voters in minority communities and college towns across the nation where the Democratic nominee appears especially popular.

Obama's strategists dispute the notion of a gap between the Illinois senator's white support in polls and in actual voting. Surveys accurately predicted the votes Obama received in most of the presidential primary elections earlier this year, they note, and Obama split the white vote evenly with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Virginia's Democratic primary.

Other analysts note that Virginia's electorate today is a considerably different from 1989, largely because of explosive growth in the Washington, D.C., suburbs and an influx of immigrants.

Bob Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, said he expects that highly motivated black voters and mostly Latino immigrants unhappy with GOP calls for tighter immigration laws will produce a 65,000-vote margin for Obama in Northern Virginia, more than double the advantage that Democrat John Kerry enjoyed there in 2004.

Holsworth said Obama also might benefit from having taken time to "become a familiar face" to Virginians. While other Democratic presidential candidates have tended to give up early on Virginia, Obama has shown up early and often - going to party functions and stumping for Virginia Democrats such as Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb before he was running himself.

Whatever the impact of race, Obama clearly is benefiting from President Bush's unpopularity in Virginia and around the nation. McCain has been cast as an heir to Bush "and he gets tarred with that brush," said U.S. Rep. Tom Davis, a Fairfax County Republican who is giving up his congressional seat and worries that it, too, will slip into Democratic hands.

Obama approaches Election Day with an overwhelming money advantage over McCain, stemming from his decision to for go federal financing of his campaign and raise cash on his own. As a result, Obama has opened 50 campaign offices around Virginia and has outspent McCain on broadcast advertising by more than 3-to-1.

The Mason-Dixon poll shows Obama with a 61 percent to 31 percent lead in populous Northern Virginia and a 50 percent to 40 percent lead in Hampton Roads. McCain is ahead in all other regions.

Among whites, McCain holds a 53 percent to 36 percent lead. Among blacks, Obama has a 92 percent to 5 percent advantage.

Each campaign boasts an army of more than 10,000 volunteers to lead what it predicts will be an unprecedented get-out-the-vote effort on Tuesday.

"I've never seen anything like this," said Del. Kenneth Melvin, D-Portsmouth, who supports Obama. "It's incredible. There's electricity in the air."

Morton Blackwell, one of the state's two representatives on the Republican National Committee, said, "I can tell you that many conservative interest groups out there are not sitting on their hands in this election."

Blackwell identified organizations that are pro-gun rights, anti-abortion and anti-union and added that if it were not for the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate, "a lot of these conservative interest groups would not be involved."

The state's GOP chairman - Del. Jeff Frederick of Prince William County - criticized the McCain campaign recently in The Washington Times for not soliciting his advice on Virginia. However, Frederick sought to minimize his concerns late last week.

"We're not worrying about how we feel," he said. "We're just working our butts off to get John McCain elected."

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This is a pretty amazing and telling New York article from when Lincoln was elected. One can see the same political implications at play, yet is also a demonstration of how far we have come.

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DTM:

Keep in mind Obama has been organizing heavily in Pennsylvania since the primaries, and on top of that Pennsylvania is a "machine" state (the "machine" was working for Clinton in the primaries, by the way). In other words, he has invested enormous resources in a state where the Democrats were already well-established, and tossing a few ads into places like Arizona and Montana doesn't meaningfully subtract from that.

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cinnamonape:

I really don't understand how pollster can have the above last two sets of numbers for the Muhlenberg Poll.

Their Daily Tracking polls show Pennsylvania getting wider for Obama...bnot narrowing...with a lead of +13!

54% Obama 41% McCain

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/

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polls_apart:

@jswarren:
Do you have a link to the Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll web site? Please provide it. Thanks!

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carl29:

Guys, didn't you suspect that those "undecided" were for McCain? I mean, c'mon give me a BREAK!!!! Of course that McCain numbers will move up, gaining from the "undecided." However, if Obama support stays the same, above 50%, it does not matter how many of those undecided McCain gets. I say it again: I think that the final score will be Obama 53% McCain 47% or Obama 52% McCain 48%.

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carl29:
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radmod:

1) I think what some of the politicos on this site have said is correct; namely, that Obama knows he has peaked in PA and additional campaigning will do little, if no good. After all, he has the 50 threshold

2) I don't by the MD numbers on VA. I also found it interesting that the two "undecideds" in the article really didn't seem undecided to me. However, VAPilot isn't a con paper, so ...

3) How many dang Virginians are posting here? What are we back in the 18th century or something? I've counted something like 5 that I haven't recognized in the last few days (of course, I'm still new).

4) Re: Boomshak and caps
Has RALPH ever shown up on this site? He's the only person I know to be banned from every single site he's ever been on (both left and right). If you're a RWer and get banned on a j$ site you know there's something wrong.

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polls_apart:

@jswarren:
Looking at the link provided by carl29, the 7-point margin IS from the 5-day tracker. Your assertion that it is merely a single day of polling is wrong.

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carl29:

@radmod,

It seems that the Republicans are desperate in VA. The attacks are quite vicious:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2008/11/last_minute_attack_ads_underwa.html

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carl29:

@polls_apart

Can you please repeat what is my assertion, please?

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carl29:

My only assertion about PA has being the following:

"carl29:

Guys, didn't you suspect that those "undecided" were for McCain? I mean, c'mon give me a BREAK!!!! Of course that McCain numbers will move up, gaining from the "undecided." However, if Obama support stays the same, above 50%, it does not matter how many of those undecided McCain gets. I say it again: I think that the final score will be Obama 53% McCain 47% or Obama 52% McCain 48%.

Posted on November 1, 2008 11:52 PM"

Am I talking about SINGLE DAY POLLING? Please double-check who you are refering to before starting to type :-)

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radmod:

@carl29

I'm more concerned about the physical stuff right now. I plan on parking my wife's car (that we are using Tues. morn) behind the house where no one can get to it and slash the tires.

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polls_apart:

@carl29:
I'm saying that jswarren's assertion regarding these numbers being one-day figures rather than the the 5-day avarage is wrong.

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polls_apart:

@carl29:
this is regarding jswarren's post at 11:16 PM above

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saywhat90:

i ve noticed no big news on drudge about zogby. must not have been a good polling day for mccain

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radmod:

Which reminded me, I haven't checked my Obama signs lately. Surprise, surprise, every Obama sign in my immediate neighborhood has been knocked down.
Repugs are just petty.

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polls_apart:

To restate in its entirety:
@jswarren:
Looking at the link provided by carl29, the 7-point margin IS from the 5-day tracker. Your (jswarren's) assertion that it is merely a single day of polling is wrong. (See post dates 11:16 PM above.)

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axe2grind:

New Iowa Poll

O - 54
M - 37

Geez, didn't we just hear on Friday that I was tied? I can tell you from living in a republican county in Iowa, there are a lot of Obama signs. In my neighborhood, there are at least 10 Obama signs, and one McCain sign. My neighborhood never supports Democrats. I went to the caucuses and met people on my street who were Dems, and we all commented that we didn't think any Democrats lived in our neighborhood. Early voting has set a record here in Iowa, my father works on the elections and worked the early voting and said it was crazy. There is no way McCain is winning Iowa, although they're sending Palin back on Monday. She is going to Dubuque which is across the Mississippi from Illinois, and Wisconsin to drum up support. Dubuque is a strong Democratic county in Iowa, they're US House Rep. is a democrat, and their local Iowa Senator, and Rep. are democrats. Obama has such a strong ground game here, its unreal. They were out today knocking on doors and leaving flyers to get people to vote. I can't wait until Tuesday to vote.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20081101/NEWS09/81101014&theme=CAMPAIGN_2008

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Mike In Maryland:

It takes 50% of the vote plus one vote to win a two person election. Add people to the ballot and you need a plurality of votes for the Presidential ballot in all states.

what do the polls show?

10/28-11/1 Obama with 52% of the vote
10/27-31/08 Obama with 52% of the vote
10/22-26/08 Obama with 53% of the vote
10/17-21/08 Obama with 52% of the vote
10/12-16/08 Obama with 53% of the vote

And some of you are about to have a HEART ATTACK because ONE poll shows McCain is at 43 or 44%??

Get real people, and GROW UP.

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BlixaCat:

Zogby just went to 6, 50-44. That's why no Drudge running his mouth.

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cinnamonape:

Carl: I realize that this so-called snapshot shows the figures. But if you look at the Muehlenberg site's data it shows that the last five days of polling has been Obama 53% McCain 41%.

Look at the actual 5-day data. Something is wrong with the report.

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/Release_10_27.pdf.pdf

This one has the 29th, 30th and 31st.

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/

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coyote201:

Off topic - but Zogby is back with Obama up 6% nationally in his daily tracker.

Latest 1 day polling is Obama over McCain 52%-42%.

Chart bounces like the stock market ...

http://www.zogby.com/main.htm

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mrzookie:

@Carl29, cinnamonape

Re: Muhlenberg MC Tracker.
Help me out here. Unless I'm misunderstanding the way it works (and I probably am), since the average day for most of the week has been O+11/12, they've got to be polling dead even for the last two days to get O+8, O+7 in the rolling average for 11/1 and 1/2. That's a scary thought.

What am I doing wrong?

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RhinoSwerve:

Hopefully enough Philly people go out and vote... Western Pennsylvanian democrats are mostly voting McCain.

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TruthHurts:

CONSPIRACY?: The MorningCall/Muhlenberg poll is a collaboration between Muhlenberg College (pollster) and Morning Call Newspaper of Allentown PA...Up until 10/30, the tracker was updated and was linked via this site http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/ ...The site stopped updating their spreadsheet on 10/30...Polling sites like pollster would normally link there. This is probably why they posted the 10/30 results here on Saturday...After 10/30 the updating STOPPED..The RESULTS were still being posted on Morningcall Newspaper's site http://www.mcall.com ...The problem is that this site does not have ANY details behind the tracking results...Coincidentally(?) the update stopped on Muhlenberg's site right when Obama went from a steady +13 to a +10...That would indicate that McCain actually WON the tracking for 10/31...On subsequent polling we're now at O+7..Again, this is a big shift for a 5 day tracking poll...Gallup and Ras use a 3 day tracker on their national model...5 day tracking would seem to muffle large swings better...I'm not buying the O+7 data until I see updates with crosstabs on the Muhlenberg site. It's conceivable that McCain's within the margin of error on the last 2 polling days..That's down from 13!...I find it hard to believe that Pennsylvania's prone to that kind of swing unless the polling formula changed.

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Sarah McPlain:

Learn to read.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Release_10_31_08.doc

SELECTED CROSSTABULATIONS

For October 27-31

Obama McCain
OVERALL 52% 44%
DEMOCRAT 84% 16%
REPUBLICAN 16% 80%
INDEPENDENT 52% 45%
MALE 49% 48%
FEMALE 55% 42%
CATHOLIC 49% 47%
PROTESTANT 51% 46%
WHITE 48% 48%
NON-WHITE 90% 8%
NO COLLEGE DEGREE 48% 46%
COLLEGE DEGREE 55% 42%
UNDER 60K 52% 45%
OVER 60K 55% 43%
SENIOR CITIZENS 50% 47%

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Sarah McPlain:

Learn to read.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Release_10_31_08.doc

SELECTED CROSSTABULATIONS

For October 27-31

Obama McCain
OVERALL 52% 44%
DEMOCRAT 84% 16%
REPUBLICAN 16% 80%
INDEPENDENT 52% 45%
MALE 49% 48%
FEMALE 55% 42%
CATHOLIC 49% 47%
PROTESTANT 51% 46%
WHITE 48% 48%
NON-WHITE 90% 8%
NO COLLEGE DEGREE 48% 46%
COLLEGE DEGREE 55% 42%
UNDER 60K 52% 45%
OVER 60K 55% 43%
SENIOR CITIZENS 50% 47%

____________________

Sarah McPlain:

Learn to read.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Release_10_31_08.doc

SELECTED CROSSTABULATIONS

For October 27-31

Obama McCain
OVERALL 52% 44%
DEMOCRAT 84% 16%
REPUBLICAN 16% 80%
INDEPENDENT 52% 45%
MALE 49% 48%
FEMALE 55% 42%
CATHOLIC 49% 47%
PROTESTANT 51% 46%
WHITE 48% 48%
NON-WHITE 90% 8%
NO COLLEGE DEGREE 48% 46%
COLLEGE DEGREE 55% 42%
UNDER 60K 52% 45%
OVER 60K 55% 43%
SENIOR CITIZENS 50% 47%

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sankaba:

Zogby O 50 M 44 today. Calls yesterday's McCain surge "one-day doesn't make a trend". That's why Drudge is missing in action.

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ErnieLynch:

Must mean that McCain is regressing!!!

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Florida Voter:

Nice poll graph showing McCain surging, but sooo many hurdles that he has to face if he was to pull an upset. With very few undecideds at this point, it's a huge uphill battle. I see Obama winning PA with a comfortable 5point spread. A bit higher then the last 2 elections with the difference being the new voter registration edge the Obama Machine did this summer.

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ErnieLynch:

Florida,

My remark is on the graph software, look closely at the end of McCain graph, it goes up and back in time.

You can also notice this slightly with Obama graph.

This curiosity is removed when you disable internet polling, which is a wise option.

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Timay:

Reply to Radmod

I'm from VA and I don't beleive MD numbers either. I've traveled around state and even downstate there's a good ratio of OB to MP signage...not as good as a well-designed poll but I get the sense that southside residents are not afraid to show their support...bodes well. Also, the in peson absentee lines in No VA were HUGE...and this area is solid Obama.

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Timay:

Reply to Radmod

I'm from VA and I don't beleive MD numbers either. I've traveled around state and even downstate there's a good ratio of OB to MP signage...not as good as a well-designed poll but I get the sense that southside residents are not afraid to show their support...bodes well. Also, the in peson absentee lines in No VA were HUGE...and this area is solid Obama.

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shirefox:

All morning MSNBC has been using their old (Th/Fr) NBC/Mason-Dixon O47-M44 poll to show "tightening" in PA. Grrr.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

Even the pro Obama Muhlehnburg College poll has the race tightening here!

EAT YOUR HEARTS OUT KOOL AID DRINKERS! IT'S GONNA BE A PRETTY LONG NIGHT LOL!!!!!

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Glasbak:

I hope someone else understands the Morning Call results because I don't. Looking at their daily figures for the 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll, I can't relate these to the figures that are announced by them. Not if you assume these are daily figures, and neither if you assume that they represent the 5-day averages.

What's going on?

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Obamablewit:

He blew it this time. No visits, no rallies and he distributed his money in states he DID NOT NEED to win.

A five point move to McCain in the past week means he is actually within the MOE for the past two days, and probably in a dead tie, as his campaign has stated. Given past history in PA, where Obama massively underperformed the polls in the primary, bet on McCain in PA. This isn't a "hail Mary"-its a calculated, and accurate decision, made by a VERY savvy and experienced politician. The fact that he went to PA told Obama everything he needed to know-but he didn't listen.

Given that VA is almost back to the MOE level, there is now at least a fifty percent chance that McCain carries PA and VA.

And the "50%" in PA argument won't hold water-because you are forgetting the margin of error.

Obama's decision to "assume" PA would vote for him will cost him this election. McCain will hold MO and IN, hold VA, pick up PA and offset NV, NM and CO. 538 shows McCain up by .1 in Florida.

Which leaves Ohio. And there is no way the Republican machine will let Obama win Ohio.

McCain with 281 EV's as of Wednesday morning.

Once again proving that you can always count on the democrat to get sucked into the wrong fight.

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