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PA: Obama 53, McCain 39 (Muhlenberg 10/12-16)

Topics: PHome

Muhlenberg College
10/12-10/16
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania 602 LV, 4%
Obama 53, McCain 39

 

Comments
Dave:

Steady as she goes.

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mandalorianarmy:

Why is McCain still campaigning here?

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sunnymi:

R2K/dKos Poll release schedule:

Today:
Alaska (Senate, House, President, Palin's approvals)
Mississippi (Senate, President)
North Dakota (President)
Oregon (Senate, President)
Texas (Senate, President)
Wyoming (House, Senate A&B, President)

Saturday:
Maine (Senate, President District 1 & 2)
North Carolina (Senate, Governor, President)

Sunday:
Kentucky (Senate, President)
Minnesota (Senate, President)
Montana (Governor, House, President)


Tease: while not every bit of news in these polls is great (and some of it will suck), every one of these polls contains at least one awesome result.

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decided:

McCains SURGE skyrocketing...

a real game changer

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sunnymi:


Based on the Dkos/R2K teaser I am thinking we are about to see a 3rd poll out of ND that will have Obama leading :-)

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jonny87:

CO, FL and VA...these are the polls we need!

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Trosen:

I really get a good laugh when the trolls here try to say PA is still in play. Please guys.. go campaign there for McCain. IA, MN, and WI too. turn 'em red baby.. you can do it.

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carl29:

mandalorianarmy,

"Why is McCain still campaigning here?" because he's got no option now. If he pulls out, it would send a terrible message to his supporters in other states. At this point it is more about PR than anything else.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

I'm anxious about the Texas Senate result. Hillary and Bill Clinton have been here campaigning for Noriega and he was only down 7 in the last Rasmussen poll which was before the economic crash started to unfold and the bailout vote (which he opposed, while Cornyn voted yes much to the chagrin of fiscal conservatives). Even in Texas, Cornyn is seen as a Bush tool (doesn't mean some people don't like that but I surprising amount do not.

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Trosen:

carl.. I also think he realizes there's no way in hell he's going to win every 2004 Bush state.. and his only real chance, however unlikely, is to turn PA.

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mac7396:

Oh Noz, all the time McCain/Palin are spending in PA is really paying off....for Obama.

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NorthernObserver:

Staying in PA does seem a waste; you'd think McCain would get over to MO where he probably still has a chance. I wonder what positive tidbit the poll from TX holds?

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Viperlord:

Keep wasting your time here McSame, while key states slip away, away, and away.

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jonny87:

Trosen,

besides new mex and iowa what red states do you think they have given up on?

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mysticlaker:

I think McCain leaves Pa after today...That's it for that play. You can't make up 14 points in 2 weeks in a mega state like PA without some major shift in the election.

He has no choice but to right off all Kerry states, + IA + NM and pray that in the first teir NV, VA, NC, CO, MO, IN, FL, OH all go his way.

In the second tier he has to hope for MT, ND, GA.

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BOOMFAIL:

AMEN Viperlord:
"Keep wasting your time here McSame, while key states slip away, away, and away."

How 'bout that Ras poll of MO?, HEH!
6 Point lead for Obama. HEH!

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MNLatteLiberal:

This is too funny:

WaPo:
"To Avoid Being 'Depressed,' Palin Skimps on Campaign News

By Juliet Eilperin
GREENSBORO, N.C. -- No wonder GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin harbors such hostility toward the mainstream media: her staff imposes limits on her access to it."

. . .

"Giving credit to a higher power for the day's poll ratings, the Alaska governor told the roughly 500-person audience that things might be changing. "We even saw today, thank the Lord," she said, looking upwards and raising her fist, "We saw some movement."

boom (wakeup),alankeys, keep_va_red, boscop et al, when you post here, do you remember to look upwards? apparently, that's very important to detect movement.

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maddiekat:

jonny87

Colorado!!!!

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Kile Thomson:

McCain get out of PA !!!!

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muckinello:

FL +4 Obama, according to R2K.
All the battleground states are quite stable lately and trending blue

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mysticlaker:

The most revealing part of this is:

Which of the following best describes the certainty of your vote for Barack Obama. Would you say you are definitely voting for Obama, very likely to vote for Obama or just leaning towards Obama?

DEFINITELY VOTING FOR……… 90%
VERY LIKELY TO VOTE FOR…….. 7%
JUST LEANING TOWARDS……….... 3%
NOT SURE…………………………… 0%

Q8. Which of the following best describes the certainty of your vote for John McCain. Would say you are definitely voting for McCain, very likely to vote for McCain or just leaning towards McCain?

DEFINITELY VOTING FOR…………86%
VERY LIKELY TO VOTE FOR…….. 12%
JUST LEANING TOWARDS……….. 3%

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carl29:

Trosen,

I agree with you that at this point McCain doesn't have many options with regards to Kerry's states. He already banked the farm in PA and can't leave now. I live in Florida and remember how Guliani kept campaigning until election day, pretending that a miracle would happen. This is what McCain is doing: Keep on investing everything he's got and wait to see if some miracle occurs, which I really, really doubt.

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Trosen:

jonny.. they haven't necessarily "given up" on any of them. But they realize to run the table on 8 or 9 states where they are currently behind would be nothing short of a miracle. By contrast, PA, while also trailing badly, is worth 21 EVs. So pulling off one big miracle with a big EV prize may be an easier task in their estimation than pulling off 8 minor ones. It's the only rational explanation.

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muckinello:

I am proud of my state of PA. We were blue with Gore and Kerry and we are deep blue with Obama!
Still time to add VA, FL, CO to the winning team!
I don't care about OH (steelers don't like the browns anyway) but those guys may still wake up and smell the coffee!

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bpd1069:

Even if it were a 50/50 probability of holding each of those 7 front line states (NV, VA, NC, CO, MO, IN, FL, OH), which is very generous to McCain, there is a (1/2)^7 change of keeping all 7..
i.e. less than 1%

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jonny87:

maddiekat,

maybe, CO certainly doesnt appear to be much of a fixture on mccains schedule. if Mccain doesnt win CO though im pretty sure the elections over.

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axe2grind:

McCain's camp has said it will not pull out of PA. They are their to the end. They are now courting the high dollar suburbs of Philadelphia for support. They still believe they can win in PA. McCain is still advertsing heavily in Iowa, where I live. He will not win Iowa - he ticked the farmers off with getting rid of the ethanol subsidies, and now he has ticked the teachers off with his new plan to hire war vets as teachers without any education or licensing, and his no child left behind and how it's working. The teachers I know are mad as hell and said they will do everything they can to keep McCain out of office.

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Trosen:

carl, good point about Giuliani. His handlers had a lot of the press convinced he might get "back in the race" because of his presence in FL. No dice. Funny story, the day before the FL primary I was actually on I-95 just north of Miami when I was literally right behind the Giuliani campaign bus. My wife talked me out of pulling along side and giving him the finger. (true story)

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joethedummer:

boomoncrack where are ya?

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SoloBJ:

Trosen.. I was trying to figure out why McCain is still in PA and your explanation is the same exact one I came up with.

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NorthernObserver:

Maybe it will be good for the Republican party if they were out of power for awhile -- give them a chance to reorganize and maybe (hopefully) take a long look at themselves and move away from the poisonous way they've conducted themselves over the last eight years. They need a bit of honour and dignity back -- the old GOP. Who could lead them? How about Susan Eisenhower, or at least someone with her poise?

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Trosen:

Ohio's demographics should be prime Obama territory. It was a pretty close race in 2004, and with the state of the economy Obama should be in command. They have unemployment up near 7%. Unions are ticked as hell. I think unfortunately you have a lot of "Joe the Plumbers" (and I detest invoking media pop culture sensations) who are too steeped in their traditions to reject voting against their own interests. I honestly think if it Was Hillary, Ohio wouldn't even be close. (that doesn't necessarily go for other states). But as it stands, OH will once again be down to the wire.

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jonny87:

muckinello,

i cant see the FL poll???

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DTM:

To summarize a theory I have floated a couple times before, as badly as McCain may want to pull out of states like PA and concentrate his resources on a narrow list of states where he absolutely must win, doing so would allow Obama to also concentrate his resources on the same narrow list of states where McCain absolutely must win. So this is actually a pretty complex problem for McCain, and under certain assumptions he may actually have a better chance of winning if both he AND Obama are spending resources in states like PA, as opposed to neither doing so.

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jonny87:

SoloBJ, Trosen

i doubt they believe they can come from 14 behind...they must simply not believe the numbers

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muckinello:

@Trosen
I agree on OH, it will be a long night for them. But in general, there is simply too much braking for Obama right now. He may win WITHOUT OH and FL and even without VA. wnat more? Even if McCain wins CO, Obama just needs what he has in the bag now + NV to reach 269 and have Pelosi and the house break the tie for him. I think this is highly unlikely but I (as many here) can't see a path for McCain. Unless a "wag the dog" scenario comes along. Altough I don't think Bush and Mac like each other that much to have the Moron in the white house pull something for Sidney

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PortlandRocks:

I know no one wants to hear this but the Republicans know it doesn't matter WHERE he campaigns. He is simply running out the clock. The ELECTORAL COLLEGE IS impossible for McCain to overcome. He's ****ed to sum it up.

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muckinello:
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Trosen:

haha.. I got a kick out of this.. McCain's road to 270? Win every former red state he's now losing in.. +.. well read for yourself:

"Peter Madigan, Republican lobbyist and strategist:
OK here’s the scenario: McCain is elected with 270 electoral votes. First the red states that George Bush won in 2004 will change a bit. There are questions about the following States…..but they will go for McCain Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Nevada.

Big change McCain wins New Hampshire….. and takes ONE ELECTORAL vote in Maine."


Guess where McCain is today? Right here in Miami, at Florida International University (my alma mater).


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Here's the Research 2000 poll out of Florida done for the Times-Union and South Florida Sun Sentinel (click my user name for the link):

Research 2000, 10/13-15 (10/6-8)
Obama 49 (49)
McCain 45 (44)

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boskop:

the press portrays him as a weak candidate whose stridency is a sign of desperation... Newsweek describes him as "a woefully weak little man, a nice enough fellow but wholly inept." Although some believe he may be making inroads, they are far outnumbered by the skeptics.

can you guess who this is?

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Trosen:

I wonder if old Pete needed to count NV twice in his 270 plan or if that was a typo.

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jonny87:

I suppose if mccain could afford to lose VA and CO providing he wins PA, but it does strike me as extremely Giulianiesque

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RussTC3:

Looking forward to all those polls Research 2000 conducted for Daily Kos.

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carl29:

Trosen,

I think that the problem with Ohio is the % of white/evangelical christians in the state. Even when Gore won the popular vote in 2000 and was robbed of FL, Ohio still voted for Bush by a 4% margin. I don't know but Ohio seems like MO to me.

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maddiekat:

As I said this morning I can not wait for the Supreme Court to side with the Dems in Ohio and they just did!!! Take that Rove!

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ThatMarvelousApe:

No disenfranchisement in Ohio: Supreme Court sides with the Democrats.

ACCOOOOOOOOOORN!

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MDB1974:

Hey, I want Obama to win big time, but you guys need to wake up if you think this is over. It's not. The more people act like it is the more momentum McCain will appear to have as the polls tighten, which they will. The rah rah stuff does not do any good. Obama is in a good position but he is in untested waters. Keep pushing, but don't get cocky.

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Timdicator:

McCain's in PA because if he pulls out, he's admitting to the entire electorate that he doesn't think he can win this election.

Also, this thing isn't even close to over. As much as I'd like an Obama victory, I'd say it's - at best - a 60-40 shot.

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Trosen:

maddie, that was inevitable. Every court has categorically shot down obvious attempts at voter disenfranchisement. MO is an excellent example. An army of GOP lawyers tried that crap recently and they got thrown out on their asses by the circuit court. I think they only go that route again if it comes down to 1 or 2 states, and those states are photo-finishes like FL 2000. For instance, if Obama carries Ohio by even 1 point, that would come to more votes than total registrations even done by ACORN in that state. In other words, OH carries OH by 1%, and the McCain campaign argues that every single ACORN registration turned into a fraudulent vote for Obama, it's still not enough to overcome the deficit. This all becomes totally meaningless if the #s hold up.

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Early voting statistics from North Carolina (click my user name for the source link):

Total Voters as of 10/17/2008
173,735

Percent African-American Voters:
25.8% (vs. 21% of registered voters)

Percent Democrats:
52.0% (vs. 45.5% of registered voters)

Percent Republican:
32.3% (vs. 32.2% of registered voters)

Percent Unaffiliated:
15.6% (vs. 22.2% of registered voters)

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ThatMarvelousApe:

MDB1974, I understand your apprehension, but nobody reads the comments sections of these blogs, we can afford to not play mind games. I look forward to the polls tightening as McCain picks up his missing 2-3% to put him back at 45-46% in most polls as it will shock Obama supporters and get them out to vote.

I predict Obama will win by 53-47 or so.

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PortlandRocks:
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jonny87:

MDB1974,

right on.

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Trosen:

Russ, that's not surprising. Older voters typically don't do this "early voting" thing and keep their traditions of shuffling to the polls on Election Day. The #s will even out.

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carl29:

Yeah...I read that democrats in NC are fired up to cast their ballots, more than 100,000 on the first day of early voting. I can't wait for my turn. Early voting in Florida starts this Monday :-)!!!

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PortlandRocks:

Obama supporters are going to vote regardless of the polls. We aren't stupid. In the meantime, the OH supreme court decided that it was RIDICULOUS to think that Mickey Mouse could have ended up voting after a paid Acorn staffer signed him up. God there is some logic left in this country. NICE TRY THOUGH DESPERATE GOP.

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Trosen:

carl.. Yup, and I'm casting my ballot bright and early Monday morning so I can sepnd all of Election Day helping get people out to the polls. (Mickey Mouse needs a ride to the polling station) *wink*

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JCK:

MDB1974,

I agree with not getting cocky, but this is a polling analysis site, and Obama's position in the polls (which is what we're discussing) is very, very good right now. I don't think stating the fact that Obama is in a strong position, especially as compared to Kerry four years ago, is being "cocky" per se.

I'll say it again: McCain is in serious trouble, even if he narrows the gap in the national polls.

@Timdicator

Disagree that Obama only has a 60% chance of victory. McCain needs a game changer, and then, even with the game changer, it needs to be enough to get him victory in all of the states that are being seriously contested.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Russ, that's not surprising. Older voters typically don't do this "early voting" thing and keep their traditions of shuffling to the polls on Election Day. The #s will even out.

Do you have any basis for this? I was at the polls yesterday and at least 70% of the people there must have been over fifty. Also, about 20% were African American and I voted in a 96% white town.

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jonny87:

early voting still going well in GA. but AA men are lagging significantly in turnout...is this something that may repeat itself elsewhere???

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm

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muckinello:

@Maddie and Marvel
do you have link to that supreme court decison?

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lhtk:

Link to the Supreme Court decision?

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fed:

Does anyone of you know the party ID percetages for FL?

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PortlandRocks:

High court rejects GOP bid in Ohio voting dispute
12 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court is siding with Ohio's top elections official in a dispute with the state Republican Party over voter registrations.

The justices on Friday overruled a federal appeals court that had ordered Ohio's top elections official to do more to help counties verify voter eligibility.

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, faced a deadline of Friday to set up a system to provide local officials with names of newly registered voters whose driver's license numbers or Social Security numbers on voter registration forms don't match records in other government databases.

Ohio Republicans contended the information for counties would help prevent fraud. Brunner said the GOP is trying to disenfranchise voters.

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w110pxp:

Missouri Rasmussen
Obama 52, McCain 46

it's over for Mccain...

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Trosen:

Ape, are you in NC? I'm basing it on expereince. My wife was a poll watcher and I've alternated between voting ealry and on Election Day. In my experience, (at least in FL), the early voting crowd is between 18-45 demographic and the majority of Election Day voters are 50+. Again, that's my observations here in South FL.

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RussTC3:

Trosen, I don't believe that is correct.

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w110pxp:

what is not correct?

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Pat:

@muckinello,

I think you are right. Bush does not necessarily love McCain to the point of pulling a national security game changer for him in the next two weeks.

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jonny87:

trosen,

early voters tend to be skewed towards older voters

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Trosen:

If it is not so, I stand corrected. I was just going by personal experience. I do know despite the 2000 and 2004 results, that NC party affiliation (and other southern states) have larger #s of registered Democrats. However it should be noted a lot of those are old "Dixiecrats" who just never bothered to officially change their party affiliation. That said, in states like FL, there have been massive new #s of registered Democrats and also large #s of those switching affiliations from R to D.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Trosen, I am in east Tennessee, so very close and demographically similar to west NC.

Then again, we don't really have much of an Obama operation here, so that might explain the disparity but the lines were big (the poll workers said much better than '04) and it seemed that it was the seniors and the African-Americans who were coming out early.

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ericsp28:

Thats great news from SCOTUS on Ohio. Does anyone know how the individual Justices voted?

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Did anyone notice that Drudge is trying to hype a two week old internet poll to spin the McCain comeback story?

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sunnymi:


SUSA (Florida)
McCain - 49
Obama - 47

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45bb3f2c-2191-49e1-9d67-a326956b75ca&c=42


* McCain is getting 22% of the AA vote which in itself is worth the 2 points he is leading by

* Party ID is R+4 and this does not match the state's registration statistics which are D+4

* Southern FL seems to be slightly underpolled

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Stonecreek:

Early Voting: Older voters fall into both categories -- those who especially like early voting and those who insist on voting on election day. As early voting spreads, it is the former group that is becoming predominant.

One thing you can say about early voting is that it favors the candidate (or party) whose voters are the more enthusiastic and committed. There is little doubt who that favors at in the current contest.

As early voting becomes more and more predominant, I would expect polling organizations to invest in polling early voters. Does anyone have an links to "already voted" polls. I know that Survey USA (an admittedly unreliable pollster) is breaking out the "already voted" in jurisdictions where it is applicable, but is anyone else doing so?

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jonny87:

obama potentially is racking up quite a margin in Va with early voting, theyve been at it for nearly a month! anyone have any data on how early voting in Va breaks up

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carl29:

Stonecreek,

I know that here in Miami Dade County, FL., absentee ballot is B-I-G among old people. I don't think that a lot of old people vote on election day here.

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carl29:

ABOUT EARY-VOTING:

"Republicans dominated early voting in 2000 and 2004. A University of Arizona study found that President George W. Bush won more than 60 percent of the early vote in each of those elections."

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Trosen:

carl.. where are you? I'm on Miami Beach.

As for that SUSA poll.. the 22% AA for McCain.. yea right. And the +4 R affiliation is nonsense as well.

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Stonecreek:

Re: McCain's Pennsylvania strategy.

I'm no longer sure there really is one. I was in Burlington, Vermont last week and found McCain up heavy on local TV. From there he can reach Vermont, upstate NY, some of NH, some of ME, and Quebec. Of those, he has the best chance of gaining electoral votes in Quebec. I think he's still in PA simply because that's where the dart board took him -- or more typically Republican, maybe he long ago committed to spend money there in order for Richard Melon Schaife to suck up some of that $84MM in government campaign largesse. Republicans can't be expected to leave financial cronyism at the door just because an elective office is at stake!

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PortlandRocks:

Anyone wondering why McCain is in PA? Let history give you some insight.

http://www.observer.com/2008/politics/how-bad-can-it-get-mccain

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jonny87:

sunnymi,

also..im pretty sure AA will make up more than 10% of the electorate. the CNN 2004 exit has AA making 12% of the electorate and the obama campaign is planning on improving that figure bigtime. i imagine there aiming at least 14% of the electorate to be AA

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fed:

Fox is blasting the supreme court....lol

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muckinello:

Ras says Obama won the debate
Men give the win to Obama by nine points, women by 17. While 60% of Republicans think McCain won, 76% of Democrats give the win to their candidate. Unaffiliated voters see Obama as the winner by an 11-point spread.

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illinoisindie:

Okay so Im liking the PA result but anyone but me scared to death of NH. I don’t care what the polls says that have Obama ahead. NH is a place that still “loves” John McCain. I know Obama has other options if he lost NH but I am not counting on that state to go blue on Nov 4th…I know that at worst if Obama lost NH
Kerry –NH + IA + NM + CO = the house breaking the tie
On another note, at least the Supreme Court didn’t let the right wing disenfranchise voters this time around…

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carl29:

Coral Gate, in the SW, next to Ponce de Leon(37th Av.)

I don't buy that McCain will get near that support. I can't predict what the result of the election will be, but I am sure that Obama support among AA will be no less than 93% in every state.

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Trosen:

Portland, that's interesting. But I don't think they've quite thrown in the towel the way Dole more or less did by this point. (Not that his campaign wasn't at least HOPING for a miracle on Election Day). I think they, for whatever reason, see some kind of "opening" in PA.. and will fight there till the bitter end.

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jonny87:

Trosen, Carl,

have jesse jacksons comments about obama fundamentally changing US policy towards Israel been picked up down there?

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IndependentThinker:

@carl29

Knowing you're from FLORIDA do you really think 22% of AA are going to vote for McCain? especially after the dire of the Bush administration
By the way in 2004 Kerry fared better among AA than Obama according to the just-released SUSA poll.
Basically this poll suggests that Kerry got more AA than Obama, does that make sense?

Besides that, 2 weeks ago the same pollster shows McCain wins 21% of AA in FL

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Vokoban:

Nobody cares for Jesse Jackson. He didn't even speak with Obama about Israel.

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Trosen:

jonny, it's a blip, but it's not getting a lot of play. Obama has wisely kept his distance from Jackson day 1, and after Jackson's "I wanna cut his nuts off" comment, I don't think too many people see them as buddy-buddy. Still, there will certainly be an element of people who will associate them together because of their skin color. And the McCain campaign is smart to jump on it. But the media hasn't run wild with it. And Hillary and Joe Biden have done a really good job of courting the Jewish vote down here and will continue to do so.

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sunnymi:


This one is for Boomshak..Numbers from his favorite pollster ( touted him as the most accurate in 2004)

October 17
McCain 40.6%
Obama 45.9%
Undecided 13.5%
Change +5.3 Obama

http://www.tipponline.com/

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mysticlaker:

Hey Boom and other weirdos! Hi, you guys there.

Look the most accurate pollster has Obama up by 5.3 today...

http://www.tipponline.com/

You may also want to tell the most accurate pollster to spell McCains' name right. That could be a problem with their poll.

Looks like the surge according to Tipp is for Obama. What say you?

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PA-John:

TIPP Daily tracker, Obama +5.3:

http://www.tipponline.com/

Obama 45.9
McCain 40.6

Obama has added to his lead everyday since Monday.

This has been touted by *some* (especially when it showed Obama only up 2) as the "Nation's Most Accurate Pollster."

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carl29:

IndependentThinker,

I don't buy that McCain will get near that support. I can't predict what the result of the election will be, but I am sure that Obama support among AA will be no less than 93% in every state.

I will predict that Obama will get 90% or more of the AA support in FL. I'll be "here" on election night and if Obama gets less than that in FL, you can throw as much egg as you like on my face :-)

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mysticlaker:

Hi Boom!

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PA-John:

Mysticlaker - are you the mysticlaker on 538?

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maddiekat:

boobshak

I thought you said that the TIPP Poll was the most accurate poll.

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Stonecreek:

@ carl29 on Early Voting:

Your 2000 and 2004 figures should be correct. Back when we called it "absentee voting", and most states required some kind of excuse and somewhat complicated paperwork, the early voters tended to be significantly more conservative than election day voters (mostly, absentee voters were "upper crust" people who resented standing in line with the riff-raff on election day.) Progressives recognized this bias in "absentee" voting and were successful in many states in replacing it with "no excuses" early voting, thus encouraging more people (and proportinally more Democrats to participate.) I don't think that there is any question that the Democrats are increasingly successful in taking advantage of early voting.

Another thing to remember is that already-cast votes are't subject to the ubiquitous "October Surprise", whatever form that may come in. Ciculars showing bloody aborted fetuses and blaming Democrats placed on the windshields of cars parked at the First Methodist Church on the Sunday before election day have no impact on those churchgoers who have already cast their ballots. Early voting is one more reason why McCain's climb is increasingly steeper -- and why hate mail in the form of Robocalling has start so early as to be much less effective.

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carl29:

PA-John,

I wander where that "somebody" is? Have you seen him?

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PortlandRocks:

This must be part of the Obama slide picking up two points in the "most accurate pollster."

TIPP Daily tracker, Obama +5.3

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Trosen:

They've all stayed off this thread.. still ponding away on the GA and RAS ones..

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PortlandRocks:

I don't understand why EVERY state doesn't move to Oregon's system. MAIL ONLY. I'm telling you guys, it's amazing. I get a big fat voter magazine in the mail with all of the candidates and issues, then a ballot comes. I can sit down, relax, read about issues I haven't heard of, vote, and drop it in the mail. Makes sense. I don't get it.

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Trosen:

Well.. in his absence.. let me see if I can give a good boomshak impression:


**GIANT SCANDAL!! OCTOBER SURPRISE!! McCAIN IS IN DEEP TROUBLE NOW!!!!**

"GREETING McCAIN IN FLORIDA TODAY — This is a big story down there — N.Y. Times, "G.O.P. Donor Is Accused of Overcharging Pentagon," by James Glanz and Michael Luo: "The Democratic chairman of a House investigative committee presented documents to the Pentagon on Thursday charging that a top Republican fundraiser, Harry Sargeant III, made tens of millions of dollars in profits over the last four years because his contracting company vastly overcharged for deliveries of fuel to American air bases in Iraq. In a written statement on Thursday, a lawyer for Mr. Sargeant, who is the finance chairman of the Florida Republican Party and a major fundraiser for Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign, called the allegations 'deeply disappointing' and asserted that they were not supported by the facts."

By the way. this is not a big story down here.

____________________

carl29:

PortlandRocks, WOW!!!! Sounds fantastic :-)

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

@ PA John

Wow .. Obama is in trouble if he cannot pull this vs. McCan :) -- How is that for such an accurate pollster... Last election, Bsh was running against Kerchy , right...

____________________

sunnymi:


@PortlandRocks, I am with you 100% on the mail-in-voting suggestion. Unfortunately I do not see any of us getting such a chance in our states in the near future :-(

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maddiekat:

Of the last 18 polls in Florida listed on RCP 3 have shown McCain with a lead. Of those 3 polls two where done by SUSA. If you want to know why look at the internals!

Fail

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Vokoban:

@ Trosen

Yes, that's the difference between right wing nuts and liberals: one of them is decent. Hint: it's not the right wing nuts.

And even worse. they are proud on their bullying. They see it as manly and strong!

And every Sunday they pray to Jesus. I hope this guy is really dead, otherwise he would be the most embarrassed person in heaven ever!

Honestly: would you want these people praying to you?

____________________

Trosen:

VivalaRevolucion:
@ PA John

"Wow .. Obama is in trouble if he cannot pull this vs. McCan :) -- How is that for such an accurate pollster... Last election, Bsh was running against Kerchy , right..."


Care to translate that?

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@carl29:

Sure, you can count on me, I would remember on election day : -)
I used to go to Florida, my parents live there, and know that AA are particularly hurt by the economy and the employment rate in FL soars this is one another reason why they would definitely side with democrats in an higher percentage this year than they did in 2004
Anyway, this SUSA pollster never shows a lead for Obama whereas a bunch of other pollsters show otherwise in the past 2 weeks
Conclusion: outlier
Next ...

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PA-John:

@Viva..

I had no idea what the hell you were talking about until I took another look at their page. LOL


____________________

Trosen:

Obama back up 7 in Gallup

O50
M43

____________________

DTM:

I believe the Supreme Court decision was unanimous, which is not too surprising since they decided the appeal purely on the issue of standing (a fairly straightforward and in this case relatively unpolitical issue).

____________________

Trosen:

Correction, the +7 is in registered voters. Apparently the LVe and LVt are unchanged since yesterday.

____________________

carl29:

I'm a fair "ducky," so let me see how things stand:

TODAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 48.7 McCain 43.7
Hotline, Obama 50 McCain 40
Battleground, Obama 49 McCain 45
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 47
Traditional

Average: Obama 49.3 McCain 43.3

YESTERDAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 50 McCain 44
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 47
Traditional

Average: Obama 49.4 McCain 44.4

*We need to add Gallup when it comes out :-)

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flamelpa:

Here is a link to a copy of the SCOTUS order on the Ohio matter:

http://electionlawblog.org/archives/orp-sct.pdf

The order was "per curiam" and without dissent.

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cinnamonape:

Re. Early Voting.

The California Field Poll over the last decade found nearly a third of absentee ballot voters (31%) are age 65 or older, double the proportion of precinct voters in this age category (15%).

In addition during the 2003 Recall Election 41% of those that used absentee ballots were age 65+.

It may be that this also included some individuals who filled out their absentee ballots and presented them AT the voting station, however.

However, I would suspect that the participation of older individuals in an early voting system that actually requires showing up may be suppressed...and more similar to in-person electoral day voting. But it's a relatively untested situation.

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cinnamonape:

"i doubt they believe they can come from 14 behind...they must simply not believe the numbers"

Or they believe the numbers...and that leaves the option of merely accepting the inevitable and sustaining the cohesiveness of the "Party" (however they define it). By playing to the base, they are satisfying the elements that some believe will prevent the schism of the party into different factions. Others think it will do precisely that...creating two different parties after the initial struggle for power. This was presaged by the Ron Paul effort this Primary season.

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