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PA: Obama 53, McCain 40 (Muhlenberg 10/22-26)

Topics: PHome

Muhlenberg College
10/22-26/08; 589 LV, MoE +/- 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania
Obama 53, McCain 40
(10/21-25: Obama 53, McCain 41)

Survey director Chris Borick emails: "Today's release is earlier than usual due to the Phillies World Series game this evening."

 

Comments
carl29:

Please McCain stay in PA, for victory is around the corner :-)!!!!

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CTPonix4BHObama:

first

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CTPonix4BHObama:

d'oh!

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carl29:

No :-)

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political_junki:

But there is a secret internal poll that shows Obama only +2 :-)


There is another poll showing Obama +4 in Ohio:

http://www.uakron.edu/bliss/docs/Akron_Buckeye_Poll_Fall_08.pdf

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Kile Thomson:

McCain Surge Continues.... !!!

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political_junki:

I cant wait till tomorrow that early voting is updated in GA and NC.
I cant believe I am saying this but if the trend continues the way it is, McSame may lose GA!!

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carl29:

political_junki,

so secret that no one knows that it exist :-)

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political_junki:

@carl29:
They just showed a copy to boom:
he has a friend in Obamas campaing ;-)

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carl29:

political_junki,

I can see boomy hanging with Obama people and being given top information from the campaign :-)

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Kile Thomson:

McCain, Palin To Flood PA With Appearances Next Week

Pennsylvania will see a lot of Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin next week.

The scheduling reflects McCain's tough electoral math. With some -- though by no means all -- advisers all but conceding Colorado, McCain would be forced to win a blue state in order to recoup the electoral votes. New Hampshire wouldn't give him enough, and Pennsylvania, the McCain campaign believes, is the most brittle of the remaining states. Public and private polls give Obama a double digit lead in the state, but McCain advisers believe that Obama is underperforming in the suburbs and exurban counties around Pittsburgh. Tensions between the two campaigns in the state is acute.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/palin_plans_pennsylvania_tour.php

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rami:

hahaha. Mccain spend a large slice (one third??) of its campagn money (and time) in PA, for THIS result?

Taking PA is the conerstone of GOP's "winning strategy".

Where did Mccain recruit his campaign staff ??

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political_junki:

Just a look at Obama/McSame favorabilty in Rassmussens page says it all:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/favorable_ratings_for_presidential_candidates

10/26 Obama net Fav:+16 McSame+1
10/01 Obama net Fav:+17 McSame+7

All the Ayres/Socialist/Spread the wealth attacks has had NO effect on Obama/ They have hurt the old man though

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carl29:

The electoral math is getting thougher and thougher for McCain/Palin.

Is NC just a crazy idea from the Obama campaign?

Look at this:

"Palin speech to launch wild week of NC campaigning, with all 4 major candidates here. Palin's speech — and the events that follow — indicate the urgency of winning North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes. She'll be followed by her Democratic counterpart, Joe Biden, on Monday. He has two scheduled campaign stops just a few days after he finished a three-city bus tour of the state.

The two presidential hopefuls have also scheduled events of their own. Republican John McCain will be in Fayetteville on Tuesday. Democrat Barack Obama will come on Wednesday to a yet-to-be-determined location. His wife, Michelle, will hold a separate event in the state."

http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081026/POLITICS/81026002

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NextAmericanChapter:

NEWS FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE

Just taking a quick break from canvassing in New Hampshire...it's looking really good for Obama in the Granite State!!! We've met several former McCain supporters who are now firmly behind Obama. Sure they still like McCain (I do too) but his response to the financial crisis was really poor. There are also a surprisingly low number of undecideds. This is all goods news for the Dems including Shaheen for Senate.

And boy, Sarah Palin is the gift that keeps on giving. Her generous gifts this Sunday:
1) "I'm not a diva"-gate...the in-fighting stories are dominating discussion
2) She's still talking about her clothes ("look everyone, I'm wearing a cheap jacket today")...I mean, who the hell cares?
3) The largest newspaper in Alaska just endorsed Obama...ouch, that's got to hurt. I guess the "media-elite" are setting-up shop in the pro-American parts of the US.

Anyway, its back to the saltmines for me. If you can vote early, please do. Also, please get your family and friends to pull vote Obama/Biden. I know that we have fun needling folks like Boomshak, but this election is really serious. We can't give the keys to the GOP again after they've f#cked up this country over the last eight years.

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carl29:

Who would have thought that on the week before the election the Republican candidates will be defending NC? If Obama is in that shape in NC, just imagine VA where Bush's winning margin in 2004 was slimmer than in NC.

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Jeff:

^^ It's hard to find any math where NC is a must-win for Obama. IF McCain won PA then yes, Obama would need NC, FL or OH. (or perhaps some longshots like ND, GA, IN)

It really says a lot about the two campaigns... McCain is trying to win a state he's been down double-digits in for the last month+ while Obama is trying to win NC just in case McCain somehow pulls it out in PA.

Obama has been one, two, maybe three steps ahead of the McCain campaign for the last 2 months.

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political_junki:

@carl29:
early numbers are beautiful for Obama in NC.

Early vote so far: 1,192,138!!!

2008 2004
Party
Dem
55.0% 48.6%
Rep
27.8% 37.4%
None
17.2% 14.1%


Race

White
67.9%
Black
28.2%
Other
3.9%

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carl29:

Obviously the McCain campaign is looking at these same numbers :-)

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carl29:

It's getting tougher by the minute:

Palin goes back to Indiana, Indiana for goodness sake!!!!

http://www.wthitv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9241231

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SoloBJ:

In all fairness, all national polls today with the exception of Hotline and RAS did see a slight gain for McCain. As long as Obama stays around 50% by election day and stays 4 or more points ahead of McCain, it's all good.

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falcon79:

@ jeff:
actually, obama can lose FL, OH, PA, VA, GA, NC, IN, ND, SD, MT, and MO, and still win the election!!!
how? all he has to do is keep the other Kerry states (minus PA), and win IA, CO, NM, and NV
game set match :)

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falcon79:

@solobj:
but Ras is boomshak's favorite pollster so it must be correct!!
lolz

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Inkan1969:

@falcon79

True dat. But I'm glad that the Obama campaign is not just settling for that game set match strategy. The campaign appears to be working as if it needed most if not all those other states to win. It can because it has the resources, and it does because that's a very smart move in keeping a lot of possible win scenarios open.

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falcon79:

oops correction sorry
he would also need to win either VA, NC, GA, FL, or OH (or IN or MO + eitehr SD, ND, ot MT) if he were to lose PA
in any case, there are way more paths to victory for Obama than poor ol gramps McCain

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straight talk:

McCain is closing nationally!!!! lol Folks 9 days out! But it is just base noise!!!! It is all about the GOTV Effort now!!!! THe most McCain can hope for is to get this thing down to 4%!But I think that these state poll numbers coming out right now are real. And if I was McCain I would be afraid! Because OBama Can lose, OH,Pa, and FL, and still win this election! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!!!

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carl29:

I have the feeling that Florida is getting ready to deliver a surprise victory for Obama. The other day, a local TV station published a poll from the FL-21 congressional district. In this District Bush won 57% of the vote; however, McCain and Obama were running neck and neck. The Republican pundit for the TV station, the former speaker of the House in Fl., commented that it was not good news for McCain to being neck and neck with Obama because the people of that District vote Republican by default.

*Did I mention that the poll was conducted by a Republican pollster? Yes it was :-)

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straight talk:

OBAMA WILL WIN FL By 5%!

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Lucky Luke:

Gallup is not tightening, is just their LV1 model, which, even by their own estimation, not accurate enough as to stand by itself. The other two models actually showed movement towards Obama.

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NW Patrick:

From RAS.

McCain is now viewed favorably by just 50% of voters and unfavorably by 49%. Those are his lowest ratings since the campaign became a two-man race in early June. The figures include just 25% with a Very Favorable opinion of the Republican nominee while 28% hold a Very Unfavorable view.

Obama is viewed favorably by 57%, including 42% with a Very Favorable opinion of the frontrunner (see trends).

Today is the 31st straight day that Obama’s voter support has stayed between 50% and 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.

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NoMcSame:

Is anyone else afraid that there is this unpolled "silent majority" that will vote for McCain but don't want to say it out loud since Obama is more "popular" and will result in an unexpected shifting of battleground states into McCain's column?

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lhtk:

Not to nitpick, SoloBJ, but I will anyway :-): In the expanded LV model from Gallup Pollster and others are using, Obama actually gained a point today from yesterday (http://www.gallup.com/poll/111445/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Continues-Lead-McCain.aspx).

Besides the fact that such a meager change is quite likely meaningless anyway, I suppose it could reflect Obama's very short hiatus from campaigning when he went to Hawaii and McCain and Palin largely had the media waves to themselves. Obama's full-go now again, and we also now begin anticipating his network broadcast Wed. evening. That could really help with his final kick.

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jonny87:

whats the dem affiliation advantage on the abc poll?

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carl29:

NoMcSame,

We just have to work with what we have. At least in recent history, AA candidates have perform around the % of pre-election polls. So, there is no way we can foresee something that we don't know yet. The good thing is that soon we will find out. We are just 9 days away :-)

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SoloBJ:

@lhtk:,
You're right. I just want this election to be over already, lol! I tell myself everyday that I'm going to take a few days off and then look at the polls but I can't! It's like I've become obsessed with this election :) These polls make my head spin sometimes.

Anyone have any idea what the format is for Obama's 30 minute airtime on Wednesday?

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Observer:

Why is Obama doing well in red state polls? I am talking about real red states, not states which have been battlegrounds for some time. I am talking about Georgia, Montana and a few others. Possible explanations:

1. He is doing well everywhere and so naturally will do better in red states.

2. This is such a Dem year that strong moves towards the Dems are the 'default' position. It is only because McCain and the Reps are fighing hard in the battlegrounds that most of them are still competitive.

3. The polling results in Red states illustrate that pollsters are really out of touch. The real position is rather different there and thus in battlegrounds as well.

There is some truth to 1 but I can't see it as a full explanation otherwise the national polls would be even better for Obama. But maybe I am wrong and perhaps the larger national leads are closer to the truth than the current tracking average of 6/7% nationally.

I think there must be a lot of truth in 2, which is why McCain has always been faced with a mountain to climb. But on the plus side for McCain if he can win the battlegrounds, even though he wins with smaller margins in the other red states, he can pull this out even with Obama ahead nationally.

As a McCain supporter it would be nice if 3 were true. But that is probably clutching at straws. But not much longer now before we all find out.

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carl29:

SoloBJ,

No idea. It will be interesting to see :-)

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cinnamonape:

Okay...I'm biased (who coulda guessed ;-) but I just spent the morning calling people in Colorado (from California) for Obama. After the first hour a guy came in and said, "Okay...word is in...we're switching to INDIANA!"

Basic task was to survey positions of the called, and if leaning McCain, Undecided, or Leaning Obama give them a little set speech and then handle questions they might ask. It was pretty soft sell....and we we're trying to let the concerns of the individuals lead the discussion. Then we tell those that we might have swayed how to vote early or by mail. We then punch in the results of our "survey" into the phone where they are presumably tabulated...with phone numbers crossed off the list after being contacted.

I was amazed at how many Obama supporters and people who were "for McCain but now I'm undecided" there are. Most of the calls I was making were not in urban Indianapolis or Dayton. Smaller cities and clearly rural areas.

Many people said it was the third or fourth call they've gotten...but were polite. Of course there were a few screaming McCainites, but generally even they were polite.

Then just as I was about to leave the HQ head said. "Wow! I don't believe this but we're doing a test trial into Arizona to see what the support there is!" So something is happening in Arizona.

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straight talk:

People ther is no BRADELY AFFECT! And if people are lying to pollster, they might just want to let the McCain Camp in on the joke! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!!!!

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mysticlaker:

Has anyone heard anything about Wed night? Any rumours even? Obama is in Florida on Wed.

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Vercingetorix:

About the weekend tightening that seems to be a feature of the polls the last few weeks, I'm really puzzled how it happens...

As I understand it, all McCain/Palin supporters spend their free time either at church or out in the wilderness, wrestling bears to the ground with their bare hands, and preparing to live self-sufficient hunter-gatherer lifestyles to evade a New World Order government.

Whereas Obama/Biden supporters spend their weekends knitting peace symbols from organic wool whilst discussing the forthcoming imposition of a new five year economic plan for the Union of Socialist American Republics, and rarely move further than three yards from the latte machines in their kitchens.

So how come pollsters seem to find it so much harder to contact the latter group than the former?

Matt

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cinnamonape:

My oh My...Georgia is yellow and SOUTH DAKOTA is now pink. And a poll today may bring West Virginia back, too. Two results show Arizona...ARIZONA!!...back in the mix!

Who would a thunk it!

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Observer:

@carl29:
early numbers are beautiful for Obama in NC.

Except that in southern states a lot of registered Dems always vote for the Republican Presidential Candidate I think. I don't think those numbers tell us anything.

Is it known whether early voting is mainly an urban, suburban or rural phenomenon or is it spread evenly? I don't think all polling places are open until November 4. In most states the urban vote is mainly Dem, the rural vote mainly Rep and the suburban vote is where the fault lines are found.

Everything else being equal I should expect an urban voter to have a better chance of finding an open polling place in his area.

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straight talk:

It is all apart of the Obama plan to build excitment for the wen night special! By not giving away details! Man this guy is a smart candidate! He is so disciplined! If I was him I would do a undecided forum and highlights from my international tour! Remember he has plenty of powerful shots from that tour!

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MNLatteLiberal:

Look, people, just which part of

boomshak:
"I refuse to consider state polling that gives Democrats [insert a number] point sampling advantages, sorry."

don't you understand?!

THIS POLL IS MOOT!
FAIL!
NEXT!

nothing to see here, move along

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Observer:

I wonder if Obama will come to regret the Wednesday night show? He seems to be comfortably ahead. Maybe he just needs to play out the clock. Will he provide ammunition for McCain? Is this another Berlin speech? A bridge too far?

What will SNL and the other shows do? This is begging for satire but I suppose as it's Obama the usual adulatory response will be enforced across the networks.

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BOOMFAIL:

Tight like a man's anus.

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straight talk:

Do forget people that McCain is having a white working class problem! Obama is getting 44% of that class! Which democrat has seen since carter! McCain better start encouraging his people to the polls! Because once the media start casting there predictions. I don't see his support comin out!

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faithhopelove:

UPCOMING ON THE TRAIL
(updated)


3 Days Ago:

Obama ~ IN
Joe Biden ~ NC

McCain ~ FL
Palin ~ PA


2 Days Ago:

Obama ~ HI
Joe Biden ~ WV, VA
Michelle Obama ~ OH
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ PA, CO
Bill Clinton ~ KY

McCain ~ CO
Palin ~ PA, MO


Yesterday:

Obama ~ NV, NM
Joe Biden ~ VA
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ TX, NM, UT

McCain ~ NM
Palin ~ IA, IN


Today:

Obama ~ CO

McCain ~ IA, OH
Palin ~ FL, NC


Tomorrow:

Obama ~ OH, PA
Joe Biden ~ NC, FL
Michelle Obama ~ NV

McCain ~ OH, PA
Palin ~ VA


Tuesday:

Obama ~ VA
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NM, CO
Hillary ~ NH

McCain ~ PA, NC
Palin ~ PA


Wednesday:

Obama ~ FL
Joe Biden ~ FL
Bill Clinton ~ FL

Palin ~ OH


Thursday:

Obama ~ FL

McCain ~ PA
Palin ~ PA


Friday:

McCain ~ OH


Saturday:

Palin ~ NC


Sunday:

Bill Clinton ~ NH

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straight talk:

I say to Obama do not take your comfortable lead for granted! After Obama speech in Germany his poll numbers climbed tremendously!And you can bet your bottom dollar that Obama is going to lay out his plans for America and tie McCain to BUSH! No matter how anyone spins never has a republican been losing so badly in traditional red states! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!

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Observer:

Vercingetorix: "So how come pollsters seem to find it so much harder to contact the latter group than the former?"

LOL

I think Saturdays is the traditional day for Democrats to count their chickens.

Oh and as I recall you thought you had enough supporters at Alesia but it all ended in a triumph for the other side.

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

@Observer

While you're making a pretty worthwhile point the trend in NC (according to polls) proves that your analysis is flawed
2 important things

1- Democrats are coming back home, otherwise how do you explain the fact that NC is now a toss up and that almost all recent polls show Obama with a slight lead (FYI: Bush won this state by 12 points in 2004 and no poll had Kerry leading Bush at any point of the race in 2004)

2- Bush won the AA by 14% in 2004, believe me in 9 days that's not gonna happen and the turn out among them will be higher

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faithhopelove:

SWING STATE NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENTS


CO:
O ~ 10
M ~ 4

FL:
O ~ 8
M ~ 4

IN:
O ~ 2
M ~ 0

IA:
O ~ 5
M ~ 1

MN:
O ~ 2
M ~ 1

MO:
O ~ 3
M ~ 0

MT:
O ~ 1
M ~ 0

NV:
O ~ 2
M ~ 1

NH:
O ~ 2
M ~ 2

NM:
O ~ 2
M ~ 1

NC:
O ~ 7
M ~ 0

ND:
O ~ 0
M ~ 1

OH:
O ~ 10
M ~ 3

PA:
O ~ 8
M ~ 2

VA:
O ~ 2
M ~ 6

WV:
O ~ 2
M ~ 3

WI:
O ~ 5
M ~ 1

See:
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003877935

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Observer:

@ boom&KipTinSUCK:

I don't claim any special knowledge about NC. I just say that the early voting figures don't add to the information that we have from the polls. We don't know how many votes for each candidate have been cast but we do know enough not to presume that voting will be strictly along party lines.

I think John Edwards was senator for NC but Kerry/Edwards lost in 2004. Yes, the margin will be close this time. Both candidates have reason to hope for a win in NC.

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jonny87:

@faithhopelove

wouldnt mind seeing bill or hillary in PA thurs/fri

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MNLatteLiberal:

a bit off topic, but one of the funniest things I've seen in a while:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XR9V_aOCga0

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Vercingetorix:


Observer:"Oh and as I recall you thought you had enough supporters at Alesia but it all ended in a triumph for the other side."

Hehe. Yeah but the Romans had a better ground game: their ground had sharpened stakes in it. And you should have seen their get-out-the-gladius operation.


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faithhopelove:

UPCOMING ON THE TRAIL
(updated)


3 Days Ago:

Obama ~ IN
Joe Biden ~ NC

McCain ~ FL
Palin ~ PA


2 Days Ago:

Obama ~ HI
Joe Biden ~ WV, VA
Michelle Obama ~ OH
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ PA, CO
Bill Clinton ~ KY

McCain ~ CO
Palin ~ PA, MO


Yesterday:

Obama ~ NV, NM
Joe Biden ~ VA
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ TX, NM, UT

McCain ~ NM
Palin ~ IA, IN


Today:

Obama ~ CO

McCain ~ IA, OH
Palin ~ FL, NC


Tomorrow:

Obama ~ OH, PA
Joe Biden ~ NC, FL
Michelle Obama ~ NV

McCain ~ OH, PA
Palin ~ VA


Tuesday:

Obama ~ VA
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NM, CO
Hillary ~ NH

McCain ~ PA, NC
Palin ~ PA


Wednesday:

Obama ~ NC, FL
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NC
Bill Clinton ~ FL

Palin ~ OH


Thursday:

Obama ~ FL

McCain ~ PA
Palin ~ PA


Friday:

McCain ~ OH


Saturday:

Palin ~ NC


Sunday:

Bill Clinton ~ NH

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SoloBJ:

@Observer,
I honestly was thinking to myself, wouldn't it be ironic if this 30 minute airtime turns into a negative for Obama. I certainly hope not but it's been in the back of mind.

Unfortunately, despite the polls and maps, I'm still a bit skeptical of an Obama victory. It just seems that something always happens whether it's voter suppression, machine fraud, Osama Bin Laden with one of his videos, etc. I'm waiting for someone to "talk me down" as Rachel Maddow would say.

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SoloBJ:

@jonny87,
It would be nice to see Hillary in PA at the end of the week but looks like she will only be making a trip to NH.

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

@Observer
"I think John Edwards was senator for NC but Kerry/Edwards lost in 2004. Yes, the margin will be close this time. Both candidates have reason to hope for a win in NC."

Sure but there's was no trend whatsoever towards kerry in NC at this point in 2004
No polls showed kerry leading even slightly

The fact that NC can go either way is GOOD NEWS fr Obama/Biden that why McCain has been campaigning there for the last 2 weeks

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wayne1:

1st time comment

as a northern transplant to N.C. I find it difficult to beleive that BO could win here

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Vercingetorix:

@SoloBJ: "Unfortunately, despite the polls and maps, I'm still a bit skeptical of an Obama victory. It just seems that something always happens whether it's voter suppression, machine fraud, Osama Bin Laden with one of his videos, etc. I'm waiting for someone to "talk me down" as Rachel Maddow would say."

I remember feeling exactly like that in the 1997 UK election, after waiting 17 years to throw the Tories out. Tony Blair had been leading the polls by double digit figures for more than two years before, but it still felt agonisingly precarious. It wasn't, of course. I was just suffering the pessimism born of frequent disappointment which masked mask the plain-as-day truth that this time the voters had firmly made to get rid of the Conservatives.

From where I sit, this year's election looks a lot like the same kind of turning point. I just think Americans have made up their mind.

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Vercingetorix:

Oops, too many typos. Sorry.

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eugene:

It looks like this race is going to get closer before Nov25th

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The_Huntsman:

Obama may not win NC. Heck, he probably won't. However, that's not the point. The point is that he is enough of a threat there that McCain has to play defense in a state that should be safe for him. That draws money, resources, and time away from states where he could play offense.

Not a good situation for McCain if he has to defend GA, WV, NC, ND, MT, MO, CO, IN, and heck, even AZ apparently.

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Lou-NH:

If Observer's numbers are correct and I have no reason not to believe them, this is huge cause for optimism for the Obama camp. The shear number of early voters(1,192,138) represents >34% of the turn-out from 2004. The party ID breakdown is very telling if it remains the same at say 1.75M voters. At the current rate the state should pass that threshold sometime around Wed. or Thur.

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wayne1:

Being a liberal... even by NE standards the feeling I get is that people here just are
comfortable with the same old thing

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straight talk:

Why is the McCain supporters more confident than the Obama supporters? Obama Supporters quit worring about these good numbers you are seeing in the polls ! Quit worrying about Obama's idea to go on TV for 30min ! Give the American people a little more credit that that. THe O team got this 30 min Idea from ROSS PEROT! Perot reached 29mi+ viewership and all he was doing was sitting down and talking! Heck even Karl Rove has Obama up 300+! What if he draw ratings around 50mil+? LAnDSLIIDE ALERT!!!!

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Dewey1858:

"eugene:
It looks like this race is going to get closer before Nov25th"

I think that might be the problem for McCain - he has apparently designed his campaign strategy around closing the gap by Thanksgiving week.


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wayne1:

I am worried, b/c numbers that do not reflect
what I here vs. what is seen in the polls. (small sample I'm sure)

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Lou-NH:

@wayne1
Realizing that you are on the ground, it is hard to believe that the turn-out numbers and party ID's in from NC so far are anything but good news. From my understanding NC is very fragmented with respect to candidate support. Maybe you are living near a very pro-McCain district.

@straight talk
I couldn't agree more. We all just need to focus on executing the ground between now and election day and all should be fine. I am going back to the phones.

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Lou-NH:

@wayne1

meant to say ground game ... I suspect that these numbers will even out to a great degree by Nov 4th but if the turn-out hits 4Mil+ Obama has an excellent chance as most of the additional turn-out will likely come from Obama GOTV efforts.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Turn out the lights. The party's over.

John McCain said as much when he decided he won't attend his own election night celebration. Nancy Pfotenhauer and Ann Coulter are going to be there getting down by themselves.

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Dana Adini:

Early results from Bernalillo county in NM which in 2004 accounted for 33% of the states vote

early votes to through 10/25

141,921 36.11% of eligible voters

breakdown

dems 75,795 53.41% 40.42% of reg dems
GOP 46,584 32.82% 35.53% of reg Gop
other19,542 13.77% 25.05% of reg other

Kerry carried the county 51%-48% but registered dems are now +14

SUSA crosstabs
M 84 16 46 O 13 81 49
Ras Crosstabs
M 83 13 33 O 16 85 57

do the math

True Blue

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straight talk:

McCain made a Gaffe on MTP,speaking about his voting record with Bush, quote (McCain)

""So do we share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course."

Look for Biden and Obama to tie him even closer to BUSH! This is another PR nightmare because you undercut your argurment that you are an agent of Change! Pawlenty/romney 2012

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carl29:

wayne1,

Do you believe that McCain and Palin would be spending their precious time/money in NC if they felt that the state is safe on their column?

The last week of a campaign, candidates focus on those states they'll need, if the McCain camp were so sure about NC they wouldn't be there, believe me.

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Dana Adini:

they are way behind in NC in the early voting. Dems have outpolled 2-1. women-men 56-44 AA 29% vs. 19% in 2004. Registered dems outnumber their GOP counterparts 3-2. 23.1% of dems have voted already as of yesterday.

staggering numbers

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wayne1:

I'm not sure, I recently moved from Raleigh to outside suburbs, but not sure that accounts for most of th thee difference, at work (in raleigh) there is still a very conservative/religous component. It seems there is a very real distrust in addressing issues in a different way.


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Dana Adini:

not sure either but early voting which has already surpassed 33% of 2004 number, Dems are outpolling GOP 2-1. Numbers from NC board of elections not some pollster.

McCain Palin in deep trouble there, otherwise they would be there so late in the game

____________________

carl29:

wayne1,

I am not contradicting your opinion; however, I'm just calling your attention to the fact that McCain obviously doesn't feel well about NC. If his campaign thought that his support in the state was OK, McCain and Palin wouldn't be campaigning in the state in the last week before the elections. That's not the way campaign strategy works.

Have you seen McCain campaigning in GA, SC, MS, AL, LA? Well, I suspect his doing OK in those states.

____________________

carl29:

wayne1,

It is pretty smart to not just look at the polls but to the campaign behavior as well. If polls have a candidate doing well + that candidate is campaigning in that state + that candidate is investing resources in that state + the opponent is defending that state = something is going on there :-)

____________________

wayne1:

I do feel good that as pessimistic as I may sound that compared to when I first came here, opinions have been broadening. (spelling?)

____________________

Dana Adini:

North Carolina and Virginia are in play. Everybody knows it and for a campaign so behind and stretched thin it's a very telling visit

____________________

Wow! AZ just went pink!!! - 50-state strategy paying off (OK it was more of a 35-state strategy)

____________________

wayne1:

BTW, I've already voted, no lines for me, thank you

____________________

carl29:

wayne1,

I mean, the fact that Obama has turned NC into a competitive race is just marvelous. Keep in mind that Bush won the state by 12% in 2004, so of course that there is always good news when Democrats do well across the board. Even if Barack doesn't carry NC, which is NOT a must-winning state for him, the resources he has put in the state should help defeat Sen. Dole and get Perdue elected Gov., in addition of any other Democrats down ballot.

*This is not just about carrying the state for Barack but also help the party as a whole :-)

____________________

blakec:

"Have you seen McCain campaigning in GA, SC, MS, AL, LA? Well, I suspect his doing OK in those states."

I bet we see McCain in MS and GA next week and perhaps a little swing thru KY in a last ditch save the Senate tour.

____________________

straight talk:

Virginia is going Blue! OBama will be there again Tues. Excellent Campaign strategy! Folks if this state goes blue on the 4! OBama will be your next President before dinner is served!

____________________

political_junki:

Link:
http://michiganmessenger.com/7007/shocking-endorsement-of-obama-by-conservative-legal-titan-fried
Shocking endorsement of Obama by conservative legal titan Fried
By ED BRAYTON 10/26/08 7:26 PM
In perhaps the most significant Republican defection yet, former Reagan Justice Department official Charles Fried, who had previously endorsed McCain and served on committees for the McCain campaign, has announced that he voted absentee ballot for Obama.

Fried also asked that his name be removed from McCain campaign literature. One of the primary reasons: Sarah Palin. From an article in the New Republic:

This week, Fried announced that he has voted for Obama-Biden by absentee ballot. In his letter to Trevor Potter, the General Counsel to the McCain-Palin campaign, he asked that his name be removed from the several campaign-related committees on which he serves. In that letter, he said that chief among the reasons for his decision “is the choice of Sarah Palin at a time of deep national crisis.”

It’s hard to overstate how surprising this is. Fried is not exactly a household name, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a more prominent or universally respected name in conservative legal circles.

Fried was the solicitor general (the No. 3 man in the Justice Department and the one who argues the government’s position in every Supreme Court case where it is required) in the Reagan administration and is now a professor at Harvard Law School.

This is really quite a big deal.

____________________

wayne1:

Yes, I do hope Hagan can prevail, so by whatever measure it seems progess will happen.!!

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

carl29:
"Have you seen McCain campaigning in GA, SC, MS, AL, LA? Well, I suspect his doing OK in those states. "

If McCain had any common sense, he'd have spent today in GA instead of IA. If McCain had no common sense, but a shred of party (as in 'country first'), he'd have campaigned today in GA instead of IA, if only to help the down ticket senate race. If McCain had any sense at all, he'd look at the national map where red has become an endangered species and rethink his moves.

Oh well, party on, Garth.

____________________

SoloBJ:

@Vercingetorix,
You summed up exactly how I feel! :)

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

wayne1:

I also live in a rural area outside of Raleigh. Trust me, Obama will win NC this year and Jesse Helms will start spinning in his grave on November 5th!

____________________

jonny87:

cant wait to see colorado early voting numbers after today and tomorrow. colorados going to be a good opportunity to see what the enthusiasm gap means with party affiliation pretty much tied in that state and early voting likely to be about 2/3rds of 2004 total vote.

____________________

carl29:

wayne1,

Now you're getting the picture. Changes like those don't happen overnight, but someone has to start. Barack is helping to make NC purpler this time, even if he doesn't carry it. Likewise, Virginia is a true battleground state this time because Barack dared to put resources and time in a state where demographic changes are trending the state more and more purple. It takes people willing to roll up their sleeves and startign building the basis for change to happen.

____________________

lhtk:

faithhopelove, where do you get your info re the candidates' schedules? I found an ok one from the WP, but it doesn't go beyond a day or two ahead.

____________________

common sense:

@ vercingetorix : You have a lot of Gaul.

____________________

boskop:

New IBD/TIPP
October 26

43.3% m

46.5% o

10.1%

+3.2 Obama

October 25

41.9% m

45.8% o

12.2%

+3.9 Obama

____________________

wayne1:

Napoleon Complex:

Clayton area(Cleveland). I have a brother that is in Iowa and is an Ironworker is looking forward to a real change.

____________________

K Johnson:

Either somebody is insane and completely stupid inside the McCain campaign. This does not add up. How is McCain going to win if he can not secure the so-called Red states Bush won. Obama said from the beginning that he is going to extend the electorale map and the McCain campaign didi not pay attention, just like Clinton did not see it coming. John McCain, for your own honor, you must end this campaign on a high note or you will forever be linked with this grumpy old man who cannot connect with America issues. At least, seize the moment and end this with honor.

____________________

political_junki:

boskop:
Enjoy those fraction of point movements, you can hold on to them 9 more days. :-)

____________________

TheCanadian:

Isn't it funny that the only age group that McCain is leading in the IBD/TIPP poll is 18-24. This poll is so bad it's not funny.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

boskop, there is an entire thread devoted to this poll. it was posted about 5 hours ago and has a ton of posts, including most excellent commentary from your friend and mine, the one and only, incomparable boomshak.

i know that poll excites you, but why post it here? you don't have McCain's PTSD perchance, do you? Oh, I forgot, Cindy McCain decried that as a weakness.

____________________

boskop:

actually-
i am much looking forward to 'the one'.
as he rises so descends our so called democracy.
common sense screams it but alas on deaf ears.

what fun to write of and watch him crash and burn, i rub my hands together in anticipation and await his hubris tanking the country, the republic and your lives.

tally ho!

____________________

wayne1:

Would you believe that N.C. does not have a local union(Iron workers) in the state even though it is the 10th most populous state of the US.

____________________

carl29:

political_junki,

Are you taking boskop seriously? C'mon that guy/girl is a real joke.

Look at some of the previous posts:

"boskop:

now watch CA.. there are lots of hockey moms there i dare say who are getting mighty pissed off with the male jacked up press over obama.

Posted on September 8, 2008 6:05 PM"

------------------------------------

"boskop:

hey, i have been ranting about WI and NJ as my personal bell weather states for mccain and saying all along they would cave. all you lemmings did was spout the talking head dullards.

duh.

hillary took NJ by enormous margins..it was bound to happen. NJ has always been in play if you track back and see the trend lines.

now watch WI cave. i will say it again, when WI caves as it will by this friday if a poll is taken, the mid west falls like dominoes for mccain.

no predictions..just look at the trend lines use yur eyeballs and the story being told.

anyway...if mccain holds this small lead, and lets be honest the national stats are still kinda slim, that is hardly a predictor of outcome.

the predictor is the kind of collapsing of the blue states scenario which has been steady and mounting.

so as NJ goes so goes the country.

(i brought this forward from a defunct thread...sorry to do it but the conversation has clearly moved!!)

Posted on September 13, 2008 11:00 AM"

See guys: As NJ goes, so it goes the nation :-)

____________________

boskop:

yummy:
myths are made of such stuff. when dowd lambastes him as she will in due course, and cnn stares wide eyed into the camera over his "reckless indecision" we shall have our chuckle. sadly, it usually means the loss of lives, but then again, you love the sound of his warble....

____________________

Dewey1858:

"boskop:
actually-
i am much looking forward to 'the one'.
as he rises so descends our so called democracy.
common sense screams it but alas on deaf ears."

You are indeed Homer ... Simpson. (So can I take that as an official concession speach?)

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Is it me or is AZ pink now?

____________________

boskop:

well, to be so quoted is to be greatly respected. to think some are so lacking in other livelihood, i only wish i had the wherewithal to reward your fine efforts on my behalf. BUT,of course , not even you could foresee deus ex machinas, now could you?

in the unlikely event of further ones, i suggest that your numbers take a dive as well.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

According to Drudge: Zogby Monday 49.9 Obama 45.1 McCain

Stays at O+5

____________________

boom&KipTinSUCK:

@OneAngryDwarf

You got it right, AZ is pink now and Obama might make a campaign stop in Phoenix, AZ next week

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

@wayne1

I'm nearby off of 42, just not quite into Johnston County. I've been here about 12 years and it's much different now than when I first moved here. There are only a few signs out in my neighborhood, but they're all for Obama and down-ticket Democrats. I never would have seen that 12 years ago.

I've been doing some volunteer work for the campaign and feel very optimistic about Obama's chances. His support is much broader than it appears. Things are definitely changing here.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

boskop:

"actually- i am much looking forward to 'the one'. as he rises so descends our so called democracy. common sense screams it but alas on deaf ears."

well, let me just tell you, that from where this latte liberal is sitting, your silent agony and angst-riddled writhing will be truly enjoyed. i hope you guys wiggle a lot.

"what fun to write of [sic] and watch him crash and burn, i rub my hands together in anticipation and await his hubris tanking the country, the republic and your lives."

you do that, young fellow, you do that. just don't hold your breath for the crashing and burning part. (unless you're watching your kin burning books and crosses.)


tally ho!

the tally, she too is against you.

____________________

boskop:

dewey_eyed
absolutely.
and with my blessings, hehehehe.

character is everything. it cannot change as the wind blows. it is the rod that threads through your spine. it will have out, always does.

start your motors, on your mark, get set...!

____________________

jonny87:

besides montana with ron paul and georgia with bob barr which other states are there where third party candidates could make an impact?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

1Angry, what you see is hope. Look to the east, the sun is rising and skies are indeed turning blue. RED on the map is becoming an endangered species, much like Sarah's dinosaurs at the hand of man 6000 years ago.

____________________

boom&KipTinSUCK:

I think Barr is om the ballot in Colorado
correct me if I am wrong

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

Anyone care to explain the endorsement of Obama by Charles Fried and why its a big deal? I understand he is a big conservative but will it have an impact?

____________________

carl29:

Look at this guys.

It is from boskop:

"um-ppity obama sat on a wall,
um-ppity obama had a great fall.
all the crimson phd's and
all the yuppie funds
couldn't put um-ppity
back together again."

Posted on September 10, 2008 3:05 PM

-------------------------------------

Wow, Barack inspired poetry :-)!!!!

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Yeah I think even the die-hard Republicans are coming to that conclusion. There is a lot of flailing around on their part and finger pointing.

Begala and Carville wrote a really interesting piece about the upcoming Republican knife fight a few days ago and it looks like they were right on.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-carville-and-paul-begala/let-the-blame-game-begin_b_136223.html?show_comment_id=17059288

You are really starting to see it even on this site. I think boomscape just told me that he was out of ideas and that Obama was going to lose "just because."

They've found religion on and they are living on faith. John McCain and the immaculate voter connection. Sad to see.

____________________

DTM:

Assuming Drudge is correct, obviously the latest day in Zogby must have been considerably higher than O+3.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Pro-America_Anti-America:

"Anyone care to explain the endorsement of Obama by Charles Fried and why its a big deal? I understand he is a big conservative but will it have an impact?"

IMHO it highlights the rate at which the rats are abandoning ship.

But a more "technical" answer has to be
1) Fried used to be McCain's campaign advisor
2) Who campaigned actively on McCain's behalf before the latter's choice of Palin for VP
3) Which Charles condemned.
4) He was a high ranking Reagan official, solicitor general, afair and
5) McCain keeps chanting about being a foot soldier in Reagan's Revolution. Well,
6) Here is a general from Reagan Revolution who just switched to the other side.

There is more, but this ought to suffice.

____________________

jonny87:

@boom&KipTinSUCK

will he pick up many votes there though. it wouldnt be that suprising for barr to pick up perhaps 4% in georgia (thats the kind of figure obamas campaigns thinking about)but elsewhere.....????

____________________

jonny87:

@carl29

can third parties be expected to pick up anything in florida?

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

The sound you keep hearing is the splashing of the little rat bodies as they abandon ship.

The Republican party is lost; cleft in twain by the double-edged sword of John McCain's poor decision making and Sarah Palin's ignorance and arrogance. The intellectuals of the party are now abandoning the radical christian base.

Sarah is going out on her own now trying to rally a base that is already whipped into a froth. Her machinations only serve to further alienate the party from resonable Republicans and Right leaning Independents.

There is a landslide alert in effect for most of the United States...

____________________

hou04:

Zogby sure knows how to grab some attention and put himself, his explanations, and his polls in the spotlight.

He is releasing 8 state polls at 1:00am ET. I am sure he will make them look much tighter than any other polls released recently.

____________________

carl29:

jonny87,

I haven't heard anything, but if I suspect that 3rd candidates won't gather too many votes. Florida voters are pretty "skeptical" about giving away their votes in a close race. I think that the Gore-Bush/Nader memories still vivid in the state.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

1Angry, I got an idea. Want to play Pied Piper to the New Republican Party faction? *eg*

____________________

colorado resident:

Have you all seen the Onion video "McCain left on Campaign Bus Overnight"? This is hillarious!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqV3AXjqP0w
You have got to see this.

____________________

truebljb1:

McCain shaved another .5 off Obama's lead in Zogby. McCain just needs to keep inching forward and change the dialougue. It is all about the states, but the press reports the national numbers because they are easier for the general public to get a quick idea of where things are at. If they report "comeback" as opposed to its over, it makes a big difference.

____________________

carl29:

truebljb1,

Stay tune to watch McCain's comeback :-)!!!!

Remember...it is just around the corner!!!!

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

colorado resident,
very cute, but i still like mine because comes from the heart

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XR9V_aOCga0

:)

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@carl29,
notice how the site "regulars" as of this weekend have stopped taking polls questions seriously and are generally giddy AT ALL the poll results? Is this indicative of the overall mood here or what? LOL

____________________

DTM:

@truebljb1

The problem is that overall, McCain actually isn't making progress in the national polls. So unless you can get the national media to always cherry-pick the most favorable polls for McCain at any given moment, what happens instead is that the media just lurches back and forth from relatively close polls to relatively wide polls as they come out, generating no consistent narrative.

____________________

Lou-NH:

I try to be objective about all polls but the Zogby poll has gone very unstable twice over the last two weeks while most of the mainstream polls (Gallup, Ras, R2000) have stayed very stable. He is definitely using a LV model much like Gallup Traditional but he also does some strange things with party ID. Just look at the curves, this election has been reported by republican leaning Rasmussen as very stable. IMHO at the end of the day it is the trend formed by all of the polls that tells the tale.

____________________

hou04:

McCain's fellow sentor from Arizona, Jon Kyl, today:

"Unfortunately, I think John McCain might be added to that long list of Arizonans who ran for president but were never elected," Kyl said, listing Republican Barry Goldwater, Udall and Democrat Bruce Babbitt. "Maybe, we'll be able to say Arizona's the only state where your child can't grow up to be president. Let's hope that doesn't happen," the Republican added."

http://www.azstarnet.com/metro/264195.php

____________________

carl29:

Lou-NH,

My theory? I think that Zogby is trying to put his numbers around the same as Gallup(traditional) tracking. Zogby is looking for cover to protect his reputation as pollster. It is better to say "we blew it" than "I blew it."

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

truebljb1

The problem is that McCain had a 49-46 day yesterday but now he is still 5 points down which means he didnt have another 3 point day afterwards or there is still a good Obama day left to drop.

____________________

truebljb1:

@Pro America

Actually that is not the case. All that it shows is that Sunday's polling numbers are better about 1.5% better than Thursdays's numbers that fell off.

____________________

colorado resident:

MNLatteLiberal,
Thanks for sharing. That was a little strange and creepy. I have been looking for the funny stuff here lately since I already voted and I am ready for the stress of the election to end. My part is over so all I can do is just wait it out. onion.com has got some funny reports and videos if you are interested. Seeing the humor in it might just help the wait go by faster.

____________________

truebljb1:

Zogby is showing McCain down 4.8%, that is down from 5.3%.

Also,

At DTM. I agree with you. He needs a day or two where pretty much all polls tighten, otherwise it will be, and probably should, be interpreted as noise. Gallup traditional tighting again would help as well. I know my guys is behind and needs something to change, but will Barack being an inexperinced AA he never can quite get past 50%. We will see. I will hold out for my guy, but if Barack wins, the great thing about this country is we get to do it all again in 4 years.

____________________

DTM:

@truebljb1

It is true that the most immediate implication is that the latest Zogby daily sample was around two points less than the sample which dropped off. But if you play with the numbers farther back, the sample that dropped off must have been around O+7, so the latest daily would have to have been around O+5.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Zogby is such an assclown. He is like the trolls "go to guy" at this point. I'm sure that Hannity and Drudge will be all over this so they can claim that the race is tight and that their guy has a chance.

State polling is OUTRAGEOUSLY in favor of Team Obama and that is where the battle is won. There are Obama foot soldiers in the trenches and they outnumber the opposition 10-1 in some places. Too many fronts in this war for McCain to defend them with so few troops and not enough money.

If John McCain is doing so well why doesn't he pull some of his ad funding and buy primetime television slots like O just did?

Bob Dole presidential campaigning to commence in 5...4...3....2...

____________________

carl29:

Four years ago in 2004:

Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: President Gaining Ground; Expands Lead to 3 Points (Bush 48%, Kerry 45%); Race Still Far from Over, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals... [ read on ] (10/25/04)

Gallup:

51% of LIKELY voters said they would back Bush, and 46% expressed support for Kerry.

Among REGISTERED voters polled, 49 percent reported support for Bush and 47 percent said they would vote for Kerry.
------------------------------

McCain needs to change the trend quickly :-)

____________________

colorado resident:

truebljb1,

We will have 4 years to work on our post traumatic stress disorder...this campaign has been downright nasty!

____________________

adocarbog:

truebljb1

Obama was up yesterday on Zogby in a single day 400 sample 49 to McCains 46.

Also McCain can no longer come back nationally or in swing states since there has been too much early voting.
Recall Obama closing in on Hillary in CA on Super Tuesday, being ahead in the polls the day before the election only to lose by 8% becaue Hillary banked 100Ks of early votes in January before Ted Kennedy endorsement and before anyone knew of Obama in CA.

Per Gallup and Zogby 17% of voters have already voted nation wide (% higher in swing states because of interest and GOTV operations) and Obama is up about 20% in that sample. He is even up 1% in AZ among the 34% who voted early per last poll.

____________________

Lou-NH:

@carl29

Zogby definitely looks more like Gallup Traditional. I just finished reading mark's article on the daily trackers and he doesn't see any significant trends from a week ago. It's a good read and sums up my views on these trackers.

____________________

DTM:

@truebljb1

In response to your 10:30 comment, Obama has been at 50% or over in many recent national polls. In fact, this was the 31st straight day Obama has been at 50%+ in Rasmussen. In that sense, I don't see much difference between Obama's numbers and what you would expect from anyone else with such a lead at this point.

That said, I think we agree on McCain needing a lot to go his way in the final few days.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

JUST BACK FROM CANVASSING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

Folks, this state is a lock for Obama. This afternoon we spent time in the town of Claremont. Two months ago, the town was split between Obama and McCain. Today we found many ex-McCain supporters who were going to vote Obama....and here's the kicker...they were excited about it!!!

With NH, NM and CO, Obama is assured of 270+ in the electoral college. However, let's bust our asses for one more week to make it a landslide and give him a strong mandate.

Also, its fun to joust with doucebags Boomshak and SouthernAngler but let's make sure that we've left no stones unturned. Get five people, and get those five to get a further five...and so on. Community organizing, baby, community organizing!!

____________________

carl29:

NextAmericanChapter,

First of all, let me thank you for what you are doing :-)

Second, yes it really looks like McCain chances in the state are slimmer and slimmer. Today Politico reported that McCain is cutting dramatically his ad buys in the state. No doubt that the most recent Univesity of NH poll make the picture clearer for the McCain campaign.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ carl29:

Worse than the reduced advertising is the reduced energy level of the Republicans in NH. They've really soured on the ugliness of the campaign tactics being used by McCain/Palin. Palin in particular is not sitting well with Republicans in NH because they are not the same breed that she appeals to (social conservatives vs. fiscal conservatives).

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Interesting read on the upcoming Republican civil war.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/26/202828/51/700/643079

Looks like the Freeptards want to purge the party of all disloyal elements (i.e. the moderates) and setup a cult of Sarah Palin worship.

Ugly, ugly, ugly. I hope they are successful because we could be looking at the end of the Republican party as we know it.

YES!!! NOW THAT IS CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN!!!

____________________

cinnamonape:

Zogby is the George Costanza of pollsters...and the fact that only Drudge brings him on shows what sort of credibility he has.

Regarding the Fried endorsement...it's more of a "barometer" than an influence. I believe it suggests a widespread discontent with McCain on any number of issues.

But todays endorsement of Obama by former Republican Larry Pressler of SOUTH Dakota may have a bigger impact.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14963.html

Pressler gives South Dakotan Republicans and independents a figurehead to assure them that Obama is not some "closet socialist" going to take over their farms. S.DAK has become "pinko" in the last few days, and this could swing enough peoples opinions that it might actually become a toss up.

____________________

bmrKY:

Two more conservatives today, legal titan & Reagan's former solicitor general Charles Fried, and Former Senator from South Dakota Larry Pressler, have both endorsed Barack Obama for President.

Like I and many others predicted when it looked as though Obama would get the endorsement of Powell, all of the sane and rational moderates and conservatives that are left have jumped off the sinking McCain ship and are beginning to embrace and endorse Obama.

This is more proof to me that Obama won't just be a great President for black people and other minorities (I myself am a white, straight, southern, male Obama supporter) or just a great President for democrats and liberals, but he will be a great, transformative President for ALL groups and ALL political parties. Get used to this, conservatives. The adults will once again be in charge in the American political arena. Thank the good lord. It's been 8 years overdue.

____________________

cinnamonape:

johnny87~ Another spot where third party candidates might have an influence is Arizona. Notice that the two most recent polls that showed Obama close also contained third-party candidates. In one they garnished about 8% of the vote.

Ron Paul ran extremely well in both Arizona and in Nevada. I believe he also had a lot of support in Louisiana. Paul has told his acolytes to support Barr or McKinney (why not Nader I have no idea).

____________________

carl29:

I always had this "gut feeling" that Palin would not play very well in NH. The people of NH rub me as fiscal conservative/libertarian style, but Palin is more conservative/evangelical style. It is the clear difference between Northeastern Republican vs. Southerner Republican. I think that she turns on the right/base; however, the center is kind of turn off by her.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

Troll, baby, troll!

Troll, baby, troll!

____________________

cinnamonape:

Anyone want to talk baseball? Just how much influence will the World Series have on all the campaigning in Pennsylvania and Florida?

Will it cut into the energy of crowds at rallies, and threaten GOTV efforts if people have less time to go to the polling places when games are on the air?

Will early voting play a more important role as people who do so will not be as distracted about having to GOTV on Tuesday?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Shocking endorsement of Obama by conservative legal titan Fried
By Ed Brayton 10/26/08 7:26 PM

In perhaps the most significant Republican defection yet, former Reagan Justice Department official Charles Fried, who had previously endorsed McCain and served on committees for the McCain campaign, has announced that he voted absentee ballot for Obama.

Fried also asked that his name be removed from McCain campaign literature. One of the primary reasons: Sarah Palin. From an article in the New Republic:

This week, Fried announced that he has voted for Obama-Biden by absentee ballot. In his letter to Trevor Potter, the General Counsel to the McCain-Palin campaign, he asked that his name be removed from the several campaign-related committees on which he serves. In that letter, he said that chief among the reasons for his decision “is the choice of Sarah Palin at a time of deep national crisis.”

It’s hard to overstate how surprising this is. Fried is not exactly a household name, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a more prominent or universally respected name in conservative legal circles.

Fried was the solicitor general (the No. 3 man in the Justice Department and the one who argues the government’s position in every Supreme Court case where it is required) in the Reagan administration and is now a professor at Harvard Law School.

This is really quite a big deal.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@1Angry,
thanks for the dailyKos link, buddy. This kinda brings into focus the Rogue Diva story we've been kicking around for the last 24 hours. The fissure is now more like a schism, and while the long term in-fighting implications are delicious, I am hopeful the zealots do not turn out in 9 days as their way to protest the insufficient attention of McCampaign to Palin's ideas and helping cast her in negative light.

To coin a phrase, in this light I can see 60 in my house. Here is to the schism yielding a bullet-proof majority!

____________________

cinnamonape:

The reason I ask is that Palin had a rally in Tampa Bay today at noon, and at Kisseemee, Florida at 3PM. The latter was right at the start of the World Series game. Did that impact turnout? Seems sort of clueless...unless you only want hockey moms to come out.

Was that the rally where Palin mainly focussed on explaining away her "wardrobe malfunctions" and where that Hasselback gal appeared? Sort of the Palin equivalent to Nixon's "Checkers" speech?

____________________

bmrKY:

I don't think it will have much impact. The series will be over by election day. Florida already has early voting, so people could schedule their trips to the poll around the baseball schedule. And Obama's ground game in Pennsylvania, and especially Philly, is so strong that he shouldn't have to worry about "World Series Fatigue" from his supporters, they will be pretty energized to get out to vote regardless.

As for rallies, Obama already had the big rally in Tampa last week with Hillary, and he's campaigning in PA some tomorrow I believe. In all honesty, the baseball crowd and the politics crowd really isn't the same kind of thing. Sure, there are baseball fans who like politics, and vice versa, but the people who show up to the rallies aren't really the same. I don't see it taking away much from his crowds in PA.

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MNLatteLiberal:

The Fried endorsement happened a couple of days ago, and the story broke yesterday afternoon. I really do not understand why there is a >24hr delay in it catching on. What am I missing here?

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cinnamonape:

MNLatteLib~ In my view such venting of dirty laundry and the hauling out of guillotines is unlikely to bring out the masses to vote. I think it would suppress turnout. It might drive even more moderates and independents to Obama, and some - even in the conservative social right- who have brains and realize that they need a unified party- may vote for an independent or simply not bother this time 'round.

Much of the invective is directed at those who "lost" the election, the Vichy's and turncoats. That's "loser" and victim psychology...not "we can win this because we are unified" psychology.

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Lechuguilla:

On this day in 2004, the electoral polling stood at 285 EV for Bush, and 247 EV for Kerry. That's within just a few EVs from the final outcome for both men. On Oct. 26th, the candidate who was ahead in 46 states eventually did win those states. In three states, the leader flipped (Wisconsin, Colorado, and Hawaii). One state on this date was tied between Bush and Kerry.

Point being ...

At this late date, there's not likely to be a lot of change in the EVs as now predicted ... even if there should be a video tape from binladen. :)

Lech

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OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

Yeah the coming Republican knife fight is going to be AWESOME!!!

I don't understand why the Freeptards are so hot for Sarah Palin. She is a terrible candidate for public office and the only people that think she's even remotely qualified are those stupid enough to read the Free Republic. Do they just not bother to look at any information not taken from the extreme lunatic fringe?

What is that crazy womans appeal? Is it just that she's attractive and believes that Dinos and people walked the Earth together? Is that really a good reason to give her the Nook-u-lar codes and have her watching for Putin's head in American airspace?

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PlayingItStraight:

http://media1.stcloudstate.edu/slideshows/SCSUSurveyResultsFall2008.pdf

Curious for comments on this from folks. Other than time length, etc. This result is significantly different from most polls in MN that fall within its timeframe.

Interest comes from fact that these are the folks that got Ventura right.

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shirefox:

carl29, "Obviously the McCain campaign is looking at these same numbers :-)"

No wonder there's so much infighting going on in the McCain campaign.

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axe2grind:

Why McCain won't win in IA - If we have to see that stupid "I'm Joe the Plumber" commerical one more time. I live in IA and I'm not Joe the plumber, I don't make 40K a year, I don't have a tax lien against me, and I don't work in a profession where I claim to be one thing, but I don't actually have a license to do it. Palin was here yesterday, and the local CBS affiliate interviewed her, as usual she talked in circles. I'm sick of Joe the Plumber, and all their other people of this campaign.

http://www.kcci.com/video/17804834/
http://www.kcci.com/video/17804835/

____________________

zotz:

OneAngryDwarf-
I read that Daily Kos blog you linked. Since I rarely watch Fox or listen to Rush I was astonished. I didn't realize the nutballs we see here are actually the norm for the internet right wing. They want a purge of the Republican party? Sounds like Mao Ze Dung! The Reps are tearing themselves apart. Today I saw a group discussion Of Brit Hume and his Fox gang. Brit said that something about Obama "gladdens the heart"! This from one of the most loyal smear merchants on Fox. We are in the middle of a social and political revolution. The Limbaughs, Hannitys, and Ingrams are terrified as their carefully constructed alternate reality crumbles around them. It is just amazing!

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Lechuguilla:

OneAngryD ... "What is that crazy womans [Palin] appeal?"

Easy question to answer. And you must not live in the South.

Here in Texas and neighboring Oklahoma, she is extremely popular, specifically because of her evangelical religion. She's anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-belief in human influence on climate change.

She's exactly in tune with religious fundamentalists.

That the economy is falling apart, or that Bush Co is corrupt and incompetent is not particularly important to those people. All they see, all they want to see, are narrow social issues, period.

Lech

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PlayingItStraight:

Palin's appeal is to small town America's worldview.

Irony is the debate they all wanted to see was Palin vs. Obama.

Don't dismiss Lorne Michaels' comments after her SNL appearance when he said he didn't like her politics, but there was something about the woman's ability to connect with people.

She may not win. But she may very well be a force to be reckoned with in the future. Lucky for many that the other Senate seat is held by a Republican that will likley not step out in 2010. She is far less of a threat to people if she's in Alaska than if she were to end up in Washington.

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MNLatteLiberal:

fwiw re Palin

my limited impression comes from trolling the north dakota republican site under the pen name PalinisaBimbo. So I tend to get the choice commentary flung at me. From what I gather, dubya and his father are viewed as being too liberal and too much of appeasers and consensus builders, and all the problems stemming from that and that alone. The hard right actually tries to pawn off dubya on Dems, amazing as that sounds, and I,for the life of me cannot fathom their logic.

They actually do blame Democrats for W. Seriously. And they say the kind of stuff we see in the dailyKos article - you've had your 30 years, now it's our turn, even if we have to wait till 2012. How they get there is a mystery wrapped in a twinkie, to quote Seinfeld.

As to Palin's appeal, imho she represents the religious zealot, the Jerry Falwell kind of de nuovo moral majority. Remember how McCain scorned their kind when he accused the GOP of pandering to the extremist element? They never forgave him until he embraced Palin. Palin to them is their white knight. She is stupid, yes, but Jesus will guide her. She passes their litmus test, that's all that counts.

And those guys are not really big on the fiscal policy stuff. They just want their Jesus version of Apocalypse. This is not logic talking, 1Angry, this is faith. End of days.

Makes me wonder what happens if Palin's medical records DO in fact contain the A-bomb/drugs from her youthful indiscretion days. Would that not be sweet? Or would they have already forgiven her for that too?

Oh well, it is late and I am going to bed. Pleasant dreams, everyone. This is like a fairy tale with a happy ending that just keeps on giving.

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bmrKY:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102602504.html?hpid=topnews

The latest Washington Post poll has Obama up 8 in Virginia.

Zogby will be releasing a few state polls here in a few minutes. Should be good for some laughs, as his state polls usually are. I'm sure Boom will be singing the praises of these polls... unless, of course, they somehow aren't good for McCain.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@Lech, agreed.

@PlayingItStraight, I will take issue with a couple of things, if I may. Lorne Michaels had a rather thin line to walk: he is a corporate entity that cannot dis Palin's lack of brains openly. Instead he talked about her intuitive ability to connect. But I will submit to you that that connection is with a rather limited set.

Those are undereducted or uneducated whites and religious fundamentalists. Palin would never have been elected a Gov of any state BUT Alaska - she needed three or four things to click for her:
1) predominantly white and
1a) MALE electorate
2) fundamentalist views
3) party crisis

Without ANY one of those conditions she is not electable. She was lucky that there was a oil migration from OK and TX to AK in her youth that brought the religious wackos up north. Without the speakers in tongue and snake handlers of your Pentecostal variety to make her base, she'd have had a 0% chance.
She has a certain Jerry Springer show type sex appeal and she knows how to use it. But only on that specific narrow demo: tobacco chewing NASCAR crowd. Period. She threatens women who look a bit too closely at her.
We could go on, but imho that's enough. She is not electable to anything but governorship of AK.

If they run her in 2012 GOP primaries or any kind of a primary outside of AK, she will fold like a picnic chair: not good enough with the fundamentals outside of religion.

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UpstateProgressive:

McCain's prospects in PA just look soooooo promising. Obama has led in the last 32 polls listed by pollster.com (going back into September). In October, Obama's led in all 18 listed polls. The closest margins have been +7 and +8. His average lead--the pollster.com composite-- throughout October has been 12.7%. Hmmmmm....promising for McCain.

My understanding is that the main reason McCain is still contesting PA is that it's a former battleground state with a high EV total and--no early voting. That means that if he manages a miracle turnaround, he might actually manage to win it. But it will take a true Hail Mary to make this work.

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jeepdad:

kerry states + va + iowa is all Obama needs, right? If so, it seems like a lock.

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hou04:

ZOGBY State Polls:

From Reuters:

"The state polls showed Obama leads in Virginia by 7 points, 52 percent to 45 percent, and in neighboring North Carolina by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent. In Missouri, Obama leads by a narrow 48 percent to 46 percent.

In fast-growing Nevada, an influx of new residents, growth in the Hispanic population and economic troubles have given Obama momentum and a 4-point lead, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Obama leads by 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent, in Ohio, the state where Bush's narrow victory over Kerry clinched his re-election in 2004."

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Seriously? These numbers come from Zogby? Maybe he just likes to play with the national numbers.

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OneAngryDwarf:

McCain is starting to phone it in. He's going to try and pull a Dole here and run out the clock while protecting as many Senate and House seats as he can.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/26/mccains-warning-dangers-o_n_138011.html

He's not going to come out and say that it is over, but everyone who isn't a complete wingnut knows, its over. Palin is now going to do her own thing and try to set herself up for 2012. McCain is going to try and defend against a 60 Seat majority in the house and the rest of the Republican party is going to really start pointing fingers.

This should make for some good spectacle as we go into the last couple of weeks here.

____________________

jeepdad:

Wow. Does this mean we have to go back to hyping zogby again?

____________________

hou04:

I think these are his Internet polls. But, it looks like he has now "adjusted" them, so they look reasonable and in line with other recent polls showing Obama leading in these states.

His previous state poll release 2 weeks ago looked whacky.

Still don't trust him.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

You gotta admit his State numbers are pretty in line with the others. WV and IN were not likely to go Blue but still close and FL has been confirmed to be dead tied.

____________________

The Dude:

@jeepdad:

Not yet. He also shows Florida tied at 47 and O down 6 in Indy and 10 in WV. Hopefully his Indy number is an outlier...hopefully things are much closer than what Zogby shows.

Nationally O is still up by 5 - same as yday.

____________________

PlayingItStraight:

@MNLatteLiberal:

Why do people suggest that she has a "lack of brains?" I think it's a bit presumptuous to suggest that the policies she espouses are an indication of "lacking brains."

I would humbly suggest that the left avoid making the same mistake that the right made over the past fourteen years ... namely believing in the infailable correctness of one's own position and failing to consider even for a moment that there may be some merit to what the other side is saying on a particular issue or particular part of an issue.

The worst thing the left can do if an overwhelming victory is won is to take it as an invitation to ram a far left agenda through Congress. That is what Bill Clinton did and what set back progressive policy making by more than a decade.

Wall Street analogy: Bulls make money, bears make money, hogs get slaughtered. It was the tax and health care over reaches that cost Democrats control in 1994.

It was Iraq and Republican over reaching, along with a couple other factors that cost Republicans the Senate in the 2006 elections.

When the left has been successful and when the right has been successful, success has been won on the basis of incremental progress where the language and framework of the debate are changed. Whenever the lines are drawn in the sand by one side or both, the side in power is typically the loser.

As to your Palin comment again, I would disagree where her appeal may lie. Let's face it, she was the "victim" of a very well executed strategy to neuter any impact that she might have aided by the stupidity of keeping her under wraps and trying to make her too well scripted.

And the morons at the RNC might as well have been on the Obama payroll with the clothing issue. Hopefully some good charity will make a fortune off of the clothes ... heck there are a lot of Obama supporters that might bid if the charity was right just to have a rather unique piece of election history.

Just a thought.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@The Dude

You can't have all good news all the time. The man is showing a 5 point lead in Ohio for Obama, that is pretty big coming from a drama-queen like Zogby.

____________________

bmrKY:

@hou04

Wow. I don't believe it. Zogby's state polls aren't TOTAL and COMPLETE BS for once, and actually kinda look like what most other polls are showing for those states. I have a feeling Boom**** will be throwing a **** fit over Zogbys state polls tomorrow, saying they're all outliers (except for FL, WV and IN, of course) and for us to "LOOK AT THE INTERNALZ!", yet he will still cling to Zogs national poll (ignoring the interals of that poll that only give the dems a 2-point party ID advantage over the reps, despite it being more along the lines of a 6-8 point party ID advantage). Boom is such a sad little man.

I'll still never forget the state poll Zogby had for New York a month or two ago that showed Obamas lead cut down to within 5 points or something like that. You'd have to be smoking a lot of reefer to end up with some of the numbers that Zogby was getting. Which might also explain the majority of the conservative/neocon posts on here.

____________________

political_junki:

Zogby is a charlatan. His numbers are junk, I would say this even if he shows Obama up 10 in all swing states. All he is doing, by releasing poll at night or giving his numbers high swing or leaking them to drudge, is to create publicity. He is a hack

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@PlayingItStraight

I would disagree with you on some specific points about Palin. Perhaps Palin isn't "stupid" per say but she is ignorant, incurious and arrogant. A TERRIBLE combination in a politician.

You can't blame the RNC for things like Troopergate, her belief in creationism or her inability to form a coherent sentence. She isn't among the intellectual elite and she should never have been a player on the national stage.

Any Republican worth their salt would say that is "elitist" postition, but I for one am tired of "Joe Six-Pack" running the country. Joe hasn't studied foreign policy or constitutional law. He sits around drinking beer, hunting moose and racing snow mobiles. While those things may be well and good for an average American they are not good enough qualifications to lead a nation of this complexity.

Exhibit A: George W. Bush. He possessed all of those character flaws in spades and look where it got us. He didn't understand the Constitution and so he spent eight long years circumventing at the peril of our democracy. He didn't understand foreign policy and we end up with "The Bush Doctrine" and the Iraq War. Our education system is in shambles and we are no longer the world leader in R&D and it is killing us economically.

I could go on for hours about the problems Sarah Palin could cause for America but that really is the point isn't it. She has so many issues and her appeal is to a very narrow section of the U.S. electorate. I for one will be glad when this nightmare of an election is over, Obama is heading for the White House and Sarah Palin can go back to being another folksy religious wacko from the great white north.

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Dana Adini:

zogby's numbers are all over the place last week he had mccain up 5 in nevada. He's a bad pollster and was dead in the water until sean hannity gave him a shot because he told him that the race was tighter than the other guys.

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Basil:

@hou04

You're insulting reefer by associating it with neocons, dude. Neocons do stuff like oxycontin and antidepressants (while they're drinking scotch and smoking cigars, of course).

I'm just sayin' :-)

____________________

political_junki:

I like the Washington Post poll in VA, Obama +8. Even though he has been up by 8-10 in so many votes latetly, it is still hard for me to believe a Democrat is winning VA, I just jump any reassurance.

____________________

Basil:

@Dana

This must be some kind of time of day thing. Once again, when I started typing, you weren't there. And after I posted, there you were.

It doesn't mean anything, and at least I didn't happen to mention you in my post, but still...(fade up Twilight Zone theme)

____________________

Basil:

@junki

I know how you feel. Charlie Brown trying to kick the football would seem to be the operative model. It's just not possible to be confident about anything.

That's part of why I hang around this site. It beats worrying.

I do work for Obama as well, but support for him in Oregon is so massive that people are practically standing in line to help him.

Here's another haiku nightmare for Boomshak:

In the night sky,
Silver wings reflecting white,
Clouds of moonbats

____________________

The Dude:

Looks like the Repugs are up to their old tricks...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/26/voter.suppression/

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liz from NJ:

these new battleground state polls by Zogby are NOT internet polls. They are regular polls (live telephone interviews, etc).

So, if he conducted his polls like a real pollster, the results should be accepted like other poll results.

Though I like the numbers for Obama (except the one IN), I have such a low opinion of him that I wonder to what degree these are reliable results.

By the way, unlike some posters here, I don't think he is intentionally playing with numbers. I think he is just a really bad pollster. His problem is a criminal lack of any self-doubt or introspection.

If you have any pride as a pollster, how could you NOT be suspicious of the quality of your work when the poll results fluctuate from O+2 to O+12 to O+5 all within a week in the absence of any serious exertnal game changing events? Instead of employing a healthy dose of self doubt, he goes on and and on buidling fantasy stories about McCain surge, etc.

In this regard, he is just like Palin in that both seem to have an uncanny knack for combining utter ignorance with a delusion of grandeur. This is dangerous!

Confidence is a good thing - as long as it is backed by reality. If not, it's a recipie for disaster.

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Basil:

@ The Dude

I just watched McCain with Tom Brokaw today. Brokaw quoted Dubya in '04 saying that he didn't care about the polls and that that was Rove's job. He, Dubya, then pointed to southern Ohio and said "Here's where I'm going to win."

McCain took that as a validation of the limited stock he's putting in polls at the moment.

I took it a a lost opportunity for Brokaw to say "Maybe it just proves that Dubya knew that GOP operatives all over Ohio were helping him turn the US into a banana republic!"

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the level of vote tampering in Ohio gave the state to Bush in '04. McCain may be more ethical than Bush, but is Schmidt more ethical than Rove?

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TJIRISH34:

Pennsylvania polls are only polls I have been following lately. McCain telegraphed his final strategy. That strategy is to win all the states still in play and flip Pennsylvania. Obama has been leading double digits in Penn. Obviously McCain thinks obama vulnerable because the whole white rural gun clinging comments originated in Penn and it was Hillary's last big win. It's a pipedream scenario for McCain at this point. All the other polls mean nothing. McCain doesn't flip pennsylvania. McCain loses election. As simple as that!

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