Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

PA: Obama 53, McCain 40 (Muhlenberg 10/22-26)


Muhlenberg College
10/27-31/08; 604 LV, MoE +/- 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania
Obama 52, McCain 44
(10/26-31: Obama 53, McCain 43)

 

Comments
NorthernObserver:

At 53-40 you had me all excited! At 52-44, McCain surge!!

____________________

NHBlue:

Typo du jour

____________________

PJ_FFM:

It's beginning to sound like it might come down to the question of whose bandwagon has the catchier music playing...

____________________

CapeCodDem:

I am freaking out! Woke up to find Zogby at 49-44 and saying McCain outpolled (!) Obama on Friday. Hoping that it is an outlier. The wild swings in Zogby just don't seem to make sense. The new PA polls out this morning (Morning Call, Rass, and this one) have the lead at 8, 4, and 8, which definitely shows a tightening, but the good thing from an Obama perspective is that all three have his number over 50%: 52, 51, and 52. As long as there isn't further erosion, he should be able to hang on even if almost all the undecideds break for McCain. GOTV, especially because PA is not an early voting state, will then be key. Ed Rendell's vaunted voter turnout machine better work!

____________________

NorthernObserver:

Before getting "spooked" by Zogby's claim that McCain out polled Obama on Friday, read what Nate over at 538 has to say about that particular poll, under the heading "Do you spook easily."

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

____________________

PJ_FFM:

Uh-oh... DKos is down to 51 O, 44 M... wait a second... something is strange with DKos today... the "yesterday" is given as 52 O, 43 M, but if you go back to October 31st, you see 51 O, 45 M...

Is that now "up one" or "down two"???

I'm a little confused... :(

____________________

NorthernObserver:

If it helps, the KOS is 51-45, which represents a 1 point drop for McCain.

____________________

NorthernObserver:

Your right PJ -- I think Pollster has mis-recorded the KOS number. Is that two typos already?

____________________

NorthernObserver:

I checked on the KOS link, yesterday it was 52-43, and today it is 51-44; so some narrowing. Still 7 points is a good lead, esp on Nov 1.

____________________

CapeCodDem:

Thanks, NorthernObserver. I did see Nate's piece and I do discount the value of Zogby, especially since he uses what some would consider an outdated likely voter model. His results show way more volatility than all of the other polls which demonstrate much more stability. I'll feel better, though, if I see a few good state poll results.

____________________

politicalmomma2:

Re: Zogby
Last night was Halloween and O's demographic was out with trick-or-treaters or out at Friday-night parties or otherwise engaged at phonebanks and the like. This one-night "surge" is not to be taken too seriously.

____________________

Angus Mc:

I hope it was just an odd one-night Friday surge, because what I'm hearing is that McCain had a massive day in PA polling on Friday.

____________________

Marcus:

ehmm .. yesterday Kos was 51-45 ... today 51-44 so its M-1 from yesterday. Pollster is very sloppy today.

____________________

RaleighNC:

Hold on to y'alls hats. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

Rasmussen has PA +4 for Barry today.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

Where did you hear McCain had a "massive" PA polling day?

____________________

purplevoter:

I will feel better when all of this is over!!!
Too many polls with a political agenda. Is there anyone out there that objectively gives a measure of where the polls are? I know it is not an exact science but please...

Either way, forget Zogby. Lets see where the other polls come in at. We all knew it would tighten. The ground game must kick in. Make sure everyone votes!!!!!

____________________

ThisLandIsMyLand:

i agree on the halloween issue. Statistics show that mothers of children are much more likely to vote Democratic. And what mother had time to answer the phone yesterday? Either getting kids ready or taking them to parties or out trick-or-treating. Not a good day for polling. And all the young folks are out at parties.

____________________

AJ:

51-46 rassmusen, Mc -1

____________________

platanoman:

Rasmussen claims only 75% dems are supporting Obama and he's still up? Amazing

____________________

vmval1:

GAME O V E R

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

Obama gained one in Ras today:

Obama 51
McCain 46

____________________

AJ:

I find this to be a good news as well, from Rassmusen:
"Nearly a third of voters say they have already cast their ballot and Obama leads by nine among this group"

____________________

mago:

"I checked on the KOS link, yesterday it was 52-43, and today it is 51-44; so some narrowing. Still 7 points is a good lead, esp on Nov 1."

Jeez, 3 posts about R2K and none of them make any sense. Yesterday the topline was 51-45. Today it is 51-44. This is not narrowing, it is widening.

52-43 is "yesterday" only in the sense that it is the 1-day result from interviews conducted last night, i.e. _the most recent interviews_. Again, this is not narrowing, it is widening. The last 3 nights were, oldest to newest, +5, +8, +9. The three combine to produce the topline number.

____________________

merveilleux:

On what planet would 25% of dems vote McCain?

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

Early voting #s look like Obama has NV locked up, possible CO too.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

____________________

RS:

@merveilleux:
"On what planet would 25% of dems vote McCain?"

On RaleighNC's, that's where... That's how Republicans have been winning NC.
But what's that - the Black dude is tied or ahead in Jesse Helms' and RaleighNC's state? Ouch! What is the world coming to? Waaah!

____________________

vmval1:

OK - I am very confused.

What are the real figures for Muhlenburg?
What are the figures for KOS
Why the hell is RaleighNC claiming RAS is +4 when his site is showing +5

Can pollster please hire a g*d d**n proof reader??

____________________

tominga:

I'm not sure where some of the numbers from DailyKos are coming from today. Its 51-44, and yesterday was +9 for Obama. The overall difference grew one point today, so there's no cause for alarm there certainly.

And while I'm still not sure which set of numbers if correct for PA, given that McCain is campaigning heavily there, of course there will be some tightening, but there hasn't been anything (yet) to indicate he'll be able to come all the way back.

Remember which side is going to slaughter the other on GOTV. My rule-of-thumb has been that if Obama is within 2-3 points of McCain in a state going into election day, he has a very good chance of winning it.

I think some people just like being scared...

____________________

orange24:

Not to worry about PA. McCain is spending all of his time and all of his money there and he is still eight points down. I don't care if Obama wins PA 50.1-49.9 as long as he wins. With all of the resources that McCain is spending in PA, it bodes very well for other state races. If you're worried about it, consider this. In the last three days of the election, Obama has scheduled exactly zero appearances in PA. You don't really think they've given up on PA, do you? Of course not. They're just certain that PA will go blue and that's good enough for me.

____________________

stevie314159:

The crosstabs behind RAS PA poll:

While Ras PA went from +7 to +4, Obama's white support actually ticked UP 1.

Ras has the AA vote now at 80-20 when he had it 93-5 before.

THAT IS THE ENTIRE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OLD +7 AND THE NEW +4.

Now, do you REALLY think the AA vote is 80-20?

____________________

political_junki:

vmval1:
Obama +5 national, +4 in PA

This is also from Rass national:

-----------------------------------------------
Nearly a third of voters say they have already cast their ballot and Obama leads by nine among this group. Obama also has a similar lead among the small group who have not voted but still plan to vote early. The candidates are essentially even among those who plan to vote on Tuesday

____________________

OGLiberal:

If Zogby had a single polling day with McCain +1 and it only cut into Obama's lead over McCain overall by 2pts, how big were the two polling days Obama had before Friday? They must have been huge. Which leads me to believe not that Obama really did have HUGE polling days on those two days but that Zogby, well, kind of sucks.

He polls 400 people a day and his "day" is actually half of one day and half of another. He does this so he can feed Drudge siren headlines. How bad is that?

Rasmussen daily - steady as she goes.....

But it's all for naught - Obama has a half-aunt who lives in government housing AND is here illegally. And that's all Obama's fault. Cancel the election - coronate Palin-McCain.

RE: Rasmussen's PA poll. Obama still over 50% at 51. That's kind of all that matters.

____________________

mago:

Given that two real pollsters have Obama's lead increading today, I think we can safely decide which orifice Mr. Zogby should insert his numbers into.

And why does he always lead his numbers to Drudge? Eew.

____________________

tominga:

Ok, so today's latest numbers on Muehlenberg is 52-44. Yesterday it was 53-43, last week it was 53-40.

A little tightening as leaning McCain voters commit to McCain, but Obama's numbers are remaining firm. What's the worry?

____________________

carl29:

stevie314159,

Maybe AA are taking "uncle" Rasmussen for a complete fool :-)!!!!!!!!!!!

____________________

merveilleux:

I can only assume there was an AA Halloween parade yesterday.

____________________

political_junki:

Steve:
Do you have Rass membership?
If the entire difference is between AA vote, that is very encouraging since it can only be an error, however you have to notice muhlenberg's daily tracker has also tightened so definitely tightening is happening, the question is, is obama bleeding or is macsame gaining among undecideds?

____________________

KMartDad08:

The evidence is in: Zogby was grandstanding again.

I'm more concerned about the PA number, though Obama's lead is holding steady at 52 (except in Pollster's headline, where he's at 53). If Team Obama senses any concern, they're not showing it yet.

____________________

tominga:

Zogby is not in the tank for the GOP, he's a legit pollster. Drudge plugs his numbers quickly because...well, they're the most favorable ones for McCain. And yes, the two days prior to that showed an increasing Obama lead.

The problem with Zogby is not that he's biased, its that he's using the 2004 model of polling. So, when he shows Obama with a 4 point lead or whatever, if this were 2004, then yeah, you might start worrying.

With the expanded voter base that's been built, you don't have to worry about that very much. Unless it ends up being just like 2004 again. I don't see that happening.

____________________

carl29:

Just imagine AA when they are told that the poll is from "uncle" Rasmussen: This is the guy that goes to Fox!!!! The only thing that Fox does is bashing the "Brother" all day long, let mess his freaking poll :-)

Oh...yeah I'm for the white "dude" :-)!!!!!!!!!

____________________

vmval1:

@political junkie:

Thank You for clearing that up. As for the section you quoted from ras, let's do some math.

Lets assume 100 voters:

30 early voters - accordin to Ras, these are split: O:17.7, M:12.3

3 more early voters to vote - O:1.77 M:1.23

67 remaining: O:33.5 M:33.5

Total - O:52.97 M:47.03

If this actually eventuated on Tuesday, Obama will win more than 400EVs

____________________

Vercingetorix:

"If Zogby had a single polling day with McCain +1 and it only cut into Obama's lead over McCain overall by 2pts, how big were the two polling days Obama had before Friday?"

Obama +9 (Wednesday) and +7 (Thursday) is my guess. An Obama +5 day on Tuesday must have dropped off to bring the three-day average down from +7 to +5.

Zogby will probably tick down tomorrow as well when Wednesday drops off, even if the spread is +6 or +7 in today's one-day polling. But who knows? Although all these numbers are within the margin for a real spread of 6 or 7 points, Zogby's been yo-yo-ing like crazy within the MOE this week.

____________________

fed:

Obama must feel good about PA, he is not going there anymore. If he thought PA is in danger , believe me, he would be campaigning there

____________________

Brad4Barack:

Zogby was full of **** as usual. The trackers from Kos and Ras show a widening. Zog was just trying to cash in with a late "tightening" meme.

____________________

chrisinnc:

A few things:

Kos is 51-44, so McCain lost a point.
Rass is 51-46, so McCain lost a point there as well.

I think maybe I'm more emotionally ready for Zogby because I haven't been including them in my tracker counts anyway, whether they have it widening or tightening radically overnight (and invariably, they've got one or the other). As has been noted elsewhere on here, Zogby is quick to assume that his numbers on any given day say that something drastic has changed. That's why I don't trust him.

The Rass tracker, while everyone had been decrying Rass earlier in the week as some Repubc in disguise, has been extremely even in his write-up, even couching some of his own large gains or losses with "the race is steady" writeups. I think the Rass tracker is a good indicator.

I will say, as an Obama supporter (and not a concern troll) that there seems to be no denying things have tightened significantly in my home state (PA). I think two things are happening there, and the first I'm especially irritated with. My esteemed Governor (Ed Rendell) has a nasty habit this cycle (and in 2000, when he expressed that Al Gore should 'drop it') of saying things that are politically idiotic. He's been doing a lot of that this week, esentially loudly concern trolling about Obama's chances in PA. People at home respect Rendell, and combined with a media that was willing to treat PA like it was tied long before any tightening was taking place for the sake of a 'horserace' story, this has become a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The second part is the stat about Democratic support - and this is where I think having been on the ground lets me see that it IS feasible for Obama's Dem support to be slipping while he's holding up w/ independents. PA, like NC and some other Southern states, has a party registration that is somewhat misleading and is a vestige of New Deal politics. There are counties in central and southwestern PA that have huge Democratic reg edges but are very socially conservative, but fiscally liberal. In the Philly suburbs (Montgomery County, for instance) you had until this year big Republican registration edges with people who were northeastern/new england republicans - socially liberal, fiscally conservative. This provides for an electorate that's not always voting along registration lines - the Philly suburbs have become pretty reliably Dem at the presidential level, while the southwest, northeast (think Bobby Casey) and central parts of the state have become more difficult for nat'l dems.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

80% AA??

Ras looks like a best case scenario for McCain in PA - and 4% is a big margin when you consider the number of voters.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

@OGLiberal:

"coronate"?

____________________

tominga:

I suspect that Virginia remains more vulnerable for Obama than Pennsylvania does, but I'm not suggesting either are in trouble today.

I think if the state is light blue today, we're going to win it. Hell, I think if the state is yellow today, we're going to win it!

____________________

Brad4Barack:

Just three more tracking days to go. Can McCain turn it around? I suspect not.

____________________

Angus Mc:

My prediction is that Ras will show a move towards McCain tomorrow. From the previous trends, Obama had a very good day of polling 3 days ago that will roll off the Ras tracker tomorrow. I expect to see Ras at 51-47 (I hope not worse than that) tomorrow morning.

As an Obama supporter, the next 4 days are going to be the death of me!

____________________

vmval1:

Its fine - Obama's going to win Ohio. He doesn't need PA (even though he'll win it by close to double digits) IA, NM, CO + OH/PA = MANDATE

____________________

Florida Voter:

Born in Scranton, lived in Philly for 10 years and now live in Florida the past 12 years. Been in contact with friends/family all over the state and I do believe in the higher percentages that show Obama ahead. Will there be tightening, sure. In the end, I think Obama will win bt 4-5 percentage points. My Mom who's a life long Republican is voting for Obama. My Dad, forget it. D isn't even in his alphabet. :)

____________________

carl29:

Guys, I think that Zogby polls with his "guts." He started showing Obama's commercial bump even before the actual commercial on Wednesday night. I think he suspected that the ad will boost Obama, so he was acting accordingly. Now, I think that with this media ad buy from the Republicans attacking Obama with Rev. Wrigth, Zogby is betting that it will hurt Obama and will bring his numbers down. So, he is fixing his numbers to reflect that damage early on.

____________________

orange24:

@tominga
You hit right on the head there. Those are certainly the two states that I'm most concerned with - PA and VA. They both have comfortable leads, but that's of little comfort to me :-)

I worry about them because I just don't trust OH or FL to go blue. I'm not trying to insult anyone from those states, but they voted for GWB twice (well, kind of twice). I just don't want to have to rely on those.

____________________

1magine:

This is all bad news for BO and US. I for one am nervous and do scare easily. I just e-mailed my ofice and am taking Tuesday off. I am phonebanking today and going to PA on Tuesday.

____________________

vmval1:

@Carl 29:

Zogby does not poll with his gut. He uses a very consistent and reliable method. First he takes out a dartboard, then he blindfolds himself...

:)

____________________

chrisinnc:

@orange24, re: Florida and Ohio - seconded.

I have never included them in an electoral equation, because I just don't trust them. They would be nice icing on the cake if won, but Ohio especially has been one that has really gone back and forth this year.

I think PA and VA are the keys. Concerned about Thurs' tighter VA numbers, and wanted to see a VA poll out yesterday. Hopefully there will be something (reputable) out today - would love to see a Rass or PPP VA poll.

____________________

drdr:

The +4 Ras number in PA doesn't make much sense together with the +5 national number. PA has a dem lean and a big difference in voter registration. I doubt that PA is now trailing national numbers.

The RCP average including Rasmussen numbers is still Obama +8, which makes sense in the context of a 5 point Obama lead.

But PA doesn't have early voting, so it is a good target for GOTV efforts for anyone who is motivated.

____________________

merveilleux:

@drdr:

You're overlooking the fact that 13% of AAs started hating Obama in the last 24 hours.

____________________

BrookLynda:

Pollster: when you get around to fixing the numbers in this headline, be sure to correct the dates as well (should be 10/27 - 10/31).

Geesh!!

____________________

PlayingItStraight:

@capecod dem:

This is morning call so its Obama by 4 (Ras) and 8 (MC, this one). Not 8,4,8

____________________

chrisinnc:

@drdr -

Yes, but if McCain has literally made that his Waterloo, then I don't think it's out of the question that it could now be lagging slightly behind the national numbers or (more likely) be right at +6 (which I assume to be the national number).

____________________

OGLiberal:

@Vercingetorix

That's a joke that I have among friends. Every time there is a single data point positive for McCain - versus many, many more that are positive for Obama - the wingnut media/Drudge react as if the race is over, that it's swinging back to McCain and that he will somehow pull off an incredible and uprecendented upset...so why bother even holding the actual. And Zogby fuels this with his silly, hysterical write-ups, as opposed to Rasmussen who always warns that unexplained and signficant shifts could just be the result of statistical noise - and they often are. But Rasmussen is a respected pollster whereas Zogby is seen as not-so-good so I guess he (Zogby) needs the press.

I understand trying to keep people enthused and motivated in the face of what is probably going to be a resounding victory by Obama, but the reaction they have to stuff like this single day in Zogby tracking polling borders on ridiculous.

____________________

Publius:

Such angst among my fellow lefties. You all need to calm down and see the big picture. Obama is ahead in most PA polls and only needs to win by a little. McCain has no compelling message to pull the number of voters he needs to his side (and away from Obama). There aren't enough undecideds left, even if they all went for McCain, for him to win the state.

____________________

politicalmomma2:

The Rasmussen state polls are usually one-day field polls -- is that correct? Clearly, other polls (like Muhlenberg), which are in the field over the course of several days, are more likely to reflect the race. That is why we don't usually see one-day national polls.
One might take Ras' 0+4 in PA with a grain of salt.

____________________

CapeCodDem:

After reading all the comments, I am freaking out a little less, but, to be honest, I don't know how I am going to get through the next four days. It will probably be easier on Monday and Tuesday when I will be up in New Hampshire getting out the vote because I won't be sitting at this computer hitting refresh and bouncing between pollster, RCP, Ras, Gallup, Huffington, Politico and cramming in heavy doses of MSNBC and CNN. I am hoping and praying that the Obama GOTV effort works and that young people come through by walking the walk, not just talking the talk. The fact that the young aren't early voting at high rates probably doesn't mean much, but they had better get out there on Tuesday. If we can hold on to PA, as I said in a post yesterday, there are so many paths to 270 that one of them just has to pay off.

____________________

political_junki:

Publius:
I'd agree with you except for this:
If Bradley effect still exists (IF) it will be only in PA, hence Rendells numerous pleas to Obama camp for more campaign there...

____________________

sandman:

I'm a bit confused,

The early voting site which seems to be farily current shows a figure of 18.2% of the 2004 total as having voted early or absentee. Surely we'll exceed the 2004 number by far in terms of total vote. Gallup seems to line up with this number. Therefore, I am confused by the Ras number which says that nearly a THIRD have already voted early? What's goin on with this? Am I missing something? Thanks in advance for any insight into this.

____________________

political_junki:

@carl29:
"Guys, I think that Zogby polls with his "guts.""

I think he polls with his Ass!
Dont worry about Zogby, he will create some hype 1 more day to get some website visits from Drduge then he will "tweak" his number to something like average of Rass and Gallup in the last day and then claim he had it right going to the election.

Zogby is the worst kind of hack opportunistic charlatan you can find in the pollster crowd.

____________________

WPBLiberal:

Anyone ever think that Rendell is pulling a Brer Rabbit here? "Please don't throw me into the Briar Patch!!!"

____________________

Publius:

political_junki:

That's a big IF. I think Philadelphia will turn out big for Obama, but I don't see the motivation in the more conservative parts of the state for McCain. As I think we've discussed before, I trust Plouffe and Axelrod to know when their internals signal an uncomfortable shift and to adjust accordingly. If Obama changes course and does go to PA over the next 2 days, then I'll believe that there's a crisis.

Even 8 points is a lot for a Bradley Effect scenario.

____________________

steve:

The Muhlenburg survey is a 5 day tracker. Friday must have been a fairly close day for McCain to move to 44%. Survey internals show a move to McCain among whites, over 60, and especially independents vs. the survey completed on 10/26. The polling last week was higher than could be expected in a state like PA and would be expected to regress to the norm. Still, I am very surprised that Obama is not scheduled for a final trip to PA unless his internal polling is tell him that the state is safe. If we see a PA trip on Monday that will be a telltale sign. I would hope Obama wouldn't take any risk in PA to close in Ohio or FL especially if he did not need those states for 270.

____________________

merveilleux:

@CapeCodDem

I know my commentary falls short of a scientific poll, but as a young voter, I can tell you that it's impossible for a college student to vote during the week without jeopardizing class standing and grades. The lines are amazing, even in my solidly blue California. I can't promise that young voters will match the expectations, because some do flake out, but I can promise you that weekend turnout will be better (maybe not ideal, but definitely better) and that a lot of the kids who procrastinate until the second will freak out and drag themselves on Tuesday. We're slow, but we'll get there.

____________________

political_junki:

sandman:
That was confusing for me too.
Only possible explanation: By accident Rass's daily tracker interviewed more people from states like FL, CO, GA, NC etc that are above national % of early vote

____________________

jswarren:

I think after the Ohio debacle in 2004 & the impending PA debacle in 2008, it will finally be enough to convince every State Sec of State regardless of party to demand early voting to avoid being the next failure of another election. I predict a very violent & ugly Tuesday in PA.

____________________

sandman:

@ Publius,

But if Muhlenberg is down to 8 with what at least must be 2 double digit days for obama where must the last 2 days be polling. There are 5 days in this poll right ? Correct me if I'm wrong, but the last 2 invidual days have to be a lot tighter. No ?

____________________

SoloBJ:

@political_junki,
Looking at the recent PA polls, I understand why Rendell has been begging for the Obama camp to come back and campaign there. Most were saying it was just a "trap" to get McCain to spend more resources there but I guess not.

Obama is still leading in the polls but I would like him to have a comfortable lead and not see this tighten too much by Tuesday.

I'm not counting on Obama winning Virginia. I recall Chuck Todd from MSNBC saying recently that he is even skeptical of Obama taking Virginia despite the polls showing him ahead.

I don't even look at Ohio or Florida. Those were always considered icing on the cake if he wins those. He needs to win PA and I suspect we will see him back in PA before Tuesday.

____________________

political_junki:

"Publius:

political_junki:

That's a big IF. I think Philadelphia will turn out big for Obama,"

I agree with you, the only thing is with no early voting, every thing will depend on election day turn out and I always hate it when it comes to that... Anyway, if we assume there is no such thing as Bradley in PA there is no reason to worry since Obama has stayed(atleast up to now) +50

____________________

jswarren:

There is simply no way the election system in PA is able to handle a 90% turnout on 1 day with electronic voting machines. There will be violence.

____________________

political_junki:

"I predict a very violent & ugly Tuesday in PA."

Here Here!

____________________

SPARTICUS:

ATTN.- Obama supporters. Want to make a difference with the Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts this weekend? Go to: www.barackobama.com and log in to make phone calls to battleground states. I did it this morning! Simply click on the battleground state you'd like to make calls in (PA,IN,VA, NC, etc....) and they'll email you a list of people to call. No muss, no fuss: make a difference this weekend and stop WORRYING!!!

____________________

jswarren:

Sandman:

Wrong, the tracking poll is 53-43. Yesterday was 52-44 for Obama, 1 day. If Obama holds 52 until tomorrow, then he's in good shape.

____________________

sandman:

@Political_junki,

Yes, this could be but the difference was SO wide. Shouldn't there be some correction for this? It just makes me wonder about his methodology. Those hard numbers have to be fairly accurate. If 150-175 million american's vote the % is even less currently than 18.2 as that % is based on 2004 turnout. Don't get me wrong, I think Obama will win, but I do believe a more conservative DEM ID advantage is 5-6. I wondering if that could be the issue as dems are more motivated to vote and have outvoted Rep. early.

My thought is that while I believe AA vote at a % will go up, I do not think the 18-30 will go up as a %. Hence the 5-6 advantage, and not the 7-10 some are using. Obama still wins but not by as wide a margin as some are showing. Thoughts?

____________________

CapeCodDem:

Merveilleux: Colleges should cancel classes or give students a make-up date for tests so they can vote. This is why there should be early voting everywhere and why Election Day should be a Saturday not Tuesday.

____________________

Publius:

Are the real numbers 53-40 or 52-44?

____________________

political_junki:

sandman:
"My thought is that while I believe AA vote at a % will go up, I do not think the 18-30 will go up as a %. Hence the 5-6 advantage, and not the 7-10 some are using. Obama still wins but not by as wide a margin as some are showing. Thoughts?"

I concur with you. AA % up, youth % almost flat (after all the fuss about youth turn out..)

By the way, last night I was a total jerk, sorry.

____________________

sandman:

@jswarren,

No, you are mistaken. Look at the dates. It needs to be corrected. Here are the last 5 days. If you play with this a little bit you can figure out how the last two days must have polled. I assume polster will correct the heading above.

10/28 10/29 10/30 10/31 11/1
53% 53% 54% 53% 52%
41% 42% 41% 43% 44%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
5% 4% 4% 4% 4%

____________________

merveilleux:

@CapeCodDem

I agree completely. As it stood, I had to get up at 7am on election day in 2004 to be able to make my 9am class. I'm going to give early voting a shot this weekend, but it annoys me that I have to sandwich it in. Employees too, for that matter. My mother's employer doesn't consider voting a valid excuse for coming in for a half-day.


____________________

Publius:

Honestly, I just can't see the scenario where McCain wins given the polling numbers we're seeing in PA and VA. Yes, it will be close, and the PA one day voting could potentially cause huge problems, but I think that officials are aware and I would think that Rendell would expand the voting hours if things do get ugly. We could be up late on Tuesday because Governors are allowing voters in the east cast ballots until 11pm.

____________________

radmod:

One thing I thought I would mention re: PA and election night. I seem to recall that in 2004 Kerry was polling well in that state and was consistently up on election night but it seemed like they waited until way late to call it.
I may be "misremembering".
In any case, don't freak out Tues. night if it takes them a while to call PA. Now, of course, if they call VA early, well ...

____________________

Vercingetorix:

"the tracking poll is 53-43. Yesterday was 52-44 for Obama, 1 day."

Sadly, I don't think this is right. 52-44 is the 5 day average. ( http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Release_10_31_08.doc )

But sandman is wrong, too. It doesn't necessarily follow that Obama had two consecutive bad days. One very bad day, followed by an average day replacing a very good Obama day could produce the same outcome.

And in any case, attaching any significance to one day's results from a poll that interviews just 150 people each day is daft.

____________________

merveilleux:

@political_junki

I can't predict the youth turnout, but like I said, it's almost impossible for us to vote during the week (my classes, for example, give you 2 absences the entire semester before they kick you out), because of the lines. It's a 3 hour wait even in Cali. Give us through the weekend before you write us off. :)

____________________

radmod:

@merveilleux:

"My mother's employer doesn't consider voting a valid excuse for coming in for a half-day."

Well, too bad for your mother's employer. By law they have to provide ample time for an employee to vote.

____________________

political_junki:

Zogby and PA aside Obama is having a surge in national Polls: Rass, DailyKos and now hotline shows big jump for O. He is +50 first time in hotline after a while...
The joke is on Zogby! Man, I would pay good bucks to see his firm go bankrupt :)

____________________

sandman:

@PJ,

Thanks and no apology needed ! Right now, I'm just hoping for a decent process. It would help Obama greatly if the election doesn't decend into bitterness. He's done a good job of staying above that type of thing and I think he will continue to do so. You all are making me worried about actually being able to poll a state like PA in one day. It's really important that they are ready for a large vote. Surely Rendell knows this and is prepared. It's really important for the process to allow both extremes to decry the system and tarnish Obama's legitimacy. I say this as someone from the right side of the spectrum. We just need to get away from the crap we've had. It will benefit Obama and the country as a whole if we can.

____________________

Trosen:

What's the freaking out over PA? So McCain's picking up the undecideds.. ok. Obama has been around 52 for weeks. He's not losing support. If Obama's anywhere near 50 on Tuesday, PA's in the bag.. even if suddenly McCain somehow get 20% AA support. It's a joke.

____________________

sankaba:

Why do I get a feeling that Rendell doesn't sound as enthusiastic for Obama as he did for Hillary?

____________________

political_junki:

By the way did anybody notice the difference in party id in Muhlenberg has gone down? I find that strange that people party affiliation can change so rapidly?
-------------------------------------------------
RESULTS FOR FIELDING PERIOD OF OCTOBER 24-28 2008
Q1. Which political party are you currently registered with?
DEMOCRAT................. 53%
REPUBLICAN............... 40%
INDEPENDENT.............. 5%
OTHER PARTY............... 1%

RESULTS FOR FIELDING PERIOD OF OCTOBER 27-31 2008

Q1. Which political party are you currently registered with?

DEMOCRAT................. 50%
REPUBLICAN............... 40%
INDEPENDENT.............. 7%
OTHER PARTY............... 2%

____________________

SPARTICUS:

HEY PUBLIUS: Nice post and point on PA and Rendell. He is the MAN and will do what it takes to expand hours and let everyone's vote count in PA: Democrat and Republican alike. I'm SO pumped for national voting legislation to pass after this mess is over. Make no mistake folks. Ohio, PA, GA, and Missouri will all have problems on Tues. Maybe even more states than that. But help is on the way. With President Obama and a Democratic majority, they can pass voting laws that state's will not be able to overturn in any effective manner, long term or short term. It isn't being talked about, but it's going to happen. This topic, along with the fact that Obama will choose 2 and maybe 3 Supreme Court justices has me VERY ready to get this thing over with..........

____________________

Jon from PA:

For those poo-pooing a McCain win in PA, please don't forget that we endured the most bitter, scorched earth primary in memory, with Ed Rendell and his machine doing everything they could possibly do to crush, kill and destroy Obama's viability not just in PA, but as a Democratic presidential candidate. Obama got crushed by 25 points and more in many PA counties. It was a big D turnout, but the combined Clinton + Obama vote was still nearly 400K under what W did in the 2004 general here.

This is why McCain is making his last stand here. Gov. Rendell already did most of his work for him, and now he is pulling the alarm like a pyromaniac fireman who just torched the barn. If you live in or near PA, GO OUT AND VOLUNTEER. The Obama operation here was built from the ground up outside the vaunted "Rendell machine" and the gears are grinding some between the two even now. Thank god for the unions and the grass roots, or Obama would probably be sunk here. I believe McSame & Failin will come up just short, but why take any chances? GET OUT AND VOLUNTEER IN PA.

____________________

cinnamonape:

People! People! It's not like the Obama campaign has stopped working in Pennsylvania.

Obama is wily...he knows that McCain and Palin's incessant campaigning in Pennsylvania is beginning to make them stale. So who does he send back there to make the closing arguments...Bill and Hillary!

Yep! The same folks that would seal the deal with all those wavering PUMA's and independents! The ones to remind people that the McCain economic policies are Dubya's with a dash of permanent capital gains tax cuts for the wealthy!

It's trickle-down from some rich guy that wears Pampers!


____________________

Publius:

SPARTICUS:

Thanks.

I would favor moving the voting to the weekend. I think we can cover everyone's Sabbath by allowing two days of voting when people have the time. Why should we be wed to Tuesday just because Congress in the 1840s decided it was the best day.

____________________

jswarren:

52-44 is the Friday 1 day result
53-43 is the rolling avg. I'm not trying to be optimistic, just reading the facts. Click on the link at the top of the page, and it will be clear.

____________________

TJIRISH34:

People soo nervous about 1 questionable 1 day poll. Obama is going to win okay! The question that is in doubt and looking in doubt is whether Democrats win 60 senates seats. These tightening polls show most likely not. This is fine with me because as someone who votes mostly Democrat. I told a friend before Nov 06 that I did not think it was good for country have 1 party having complete control all 3 branches of government. As saying goes "absolute power corrupts absolutely." Plus with less than 60 senate seats Obama will have chance show doubters that he will cross party lines and show bi-partisanship by making deals with GOP. BTW Off topic: I mentioned on another post I went halloween party at bar last nite. Got away from this angst about election. Alot of people there because of band under 30. I noticed an upbeat mood despite the tough economy. Optimism about election? Had fun. Loved the girl dressed up as Victoria Secret Lingerie model (she pulled it off too). 3 girls dressed as bananas was funny. But don't come to crowded bar dressed as an ice box as one guy did. Trying move around in bulky boxes not best idea for costume. Especially in a crowded bar. LOL

____________________

Obama008:

I live in PA, and I’m 99.999999% sure Obama will win PA. I know long time Republicans that are going to vote for Obama.

I live in the area outside of Philly.

A lot of McCain's negative ads have a back fire effect in PA.

Also you people are not looking at areas that Obama destroyed Hillary in the PA primaries.

When look at PA look towards philly, the area around philly, and south central PA, for an Obama win.

All we can do now is VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE.

____________________

Basil:

CapeCodDem

Voting day as a holiday is a good idea. If everybody would just adopt Oregon's vote by mail system, you could have the holiday for late voters, but the vast majority would be already in.

A canvasser for Obama called me a couple of days ago and said I wasn't showing up on their printouts as having voted. Puzzled, and knowing I had turned in my ballot, but perhaps had not signed the envelope, I called my local elections office.

Ten seconds later they said, "Yep, you voted on the 20th."

The only way we can have lines to vote in Oregon is if you lose or improperly fill out your ballot and wait until Nov.4 to get a replacement. Everybody else who votes on the 4th just drives or walks by and puts their ballots in a mailbox at the elections office. If you insist on staying in your car it might take two minutes.

It's like getting your tax return in on April 15. No big deal.

Please lobby your state gov't for something like this. Big lines suppress turnout, and THEY'RE STUPID.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR