Pollster.com

Looks good!

What, not 52-46? I was beginning to think there was no other possible result in PA.

Why is the Gallup poll not matching up with state polls? If it was accurate Obama would be up +16 (considering Penn was +5 from the national in '04)

I was actually worried about Pennsylvania, but 3 polls 2 days before election tell me that Obama will win the blue state!

FROM GALLUP TONIGHT:

BREAKING NEWS:

The final USA Today/Gallup 2008 pre-election poll predicts Barack Obama will be elected the 44th president of the United States, as he holds a 55% to 44% advantage over John McCain in the allocated estimate of the 2008 presidential vote.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/Final-Presidential-Estimate-Obama-55-McCain-44.aspx

I'll take it. I think people tend to gloss over the fact that Obama was never going to win Pennsylvania by the 10 to 15 points that some polls were showing in the last several weeks. Good solid result with a large sample.

Guys, we're up 6-8 points in a state 48 hours before the election. I don't think we're going to lose PA. It may be closer than we would hae liked, but when McCain has poured his entire campaign into this one state, some tightening is bound to happen.

Good. Up to 6-8. Far exceeding Kerry in '04. One more day!!

Obama has strong appeal among new voters all across the country and that's why very red states like Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, Virginia and more are tilting towards Obama, and that explains Obama's big lead in national polls.

Gallup: Final Party ID

Among RV's
----------
Democrats: 38%
Republicans: 26%
Independents: 34%

Among LV's
----------
Democrats: 39%
Republicans: 29%
Independents: 31%

For those who are skeptical of this look at the data from Gallup for the last several years:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

Why is McCain behind in every single national and Pennsylvania poll and has been for weeks? If he was closing, he should be up by now! Guess he's just plain lying.

Classic Rope-a-Dope by Obama. They were watching the internals and knew that Obama could be making better use of his time in FL and OH.

Encouraging to see such agreement with these PA polls.

Bottom line Obama's support is 51-53% and it doesnt change. Maybe that is why he didnt campaign there at all...

Brilliantly run campaign. I hope he has room in the administration for Plouffe and Axlerod. They never paniced - like me. I felt PA slipping away, but they knew it would stablilize - and stabilize with Obama above 50%.

I'm starting to think that this might actually happen!

I agree with Ivote, Mccain poured almost everything into this state, how could we not expect it to tighten at least somewhat? this isnt cali or new york, this state Barely went dem in the last two elections, if obama wins this state by 5% points it is still an earth shattering performance, 12 point win would have been the twilight zone

Wow, those are some nice numbers for Gallup.

Also, while they still have the three models, they at least went ahead and made a prediction: Obama 55, McCain 44. +11, geez, that would be really, really nice.

I can't wait for this to be over. The minute Obama hits the 270 mark, I'm going to be so damn happy.

I really hope he wins.

Biden's campaigning in PA tomorrow night with members of the Phillies. What a great way to close out the campaign. Just to show a little love.

Just out of curiosity, do you know which Phillies? I'm pretty sure they aren't all Democrats.

@ sunnymi
The party identification I'm seeing over at Gallup is different that what you posted:

In the final poll, 38% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats, 34% as independents and 26% as Republicans. Among likely voters, the figures are 39%, 31% and 29%, respectively.

@ModerateGuy

Well, for one thing obviously PA's relationship to the national numbers could change this time, with PA becoming more neutral relative to the nation or even being a little less favorable for Obama. That could be true for any number of reasons, including changes in the national electorate, Obama expanding his campaigning relative to Kerry, McCain focusing so much on PA, or so on. Note that much of this would actually be good news for Obama--basically, it could be the result of PA turning "bluer", but the nation as a whole turning "bluer" even faster.

For another thing, something could be systematically off with the PA polls. Note, for example, that the national pollsters now have the advantage of significant early voting percentages, which is helping to serve as a corrective to any likely voter errors they may have made. In contrast, PA has very little early voting, so PA pollsters don't have that benefit. I also don't know if PA pollsters have been calling cell phones, which this year may create a significant bias. And so on.

Check this out:

While only 4% of voters remain undecided in Gallup's unallocated likely voter model, the final poll estimates that a slightly larger 10% of likely voters still have the potential to either change their mind or make up their mind. Even if McCain converts the vast majority of swing voters, victory for him would be highly unlikely since 51% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for Obama compared with 39% who say they are sure they will vote for McCain.

That's very good news for Obama.

thank god for PPP, right?

Gives me something to check all night as I write.

I don't want to sound like I predicted this but a few nights ago I suggested that PA was the perfect trap for McCain. Promising enough to get him to put all his cash in advertising and take out his ground game while the Obama team went after VA, NC, FL, CO, MO & NV.

Then again it could just be luck. Having 3 polls converging on the same answer is awfully comforting regardless.

@sunnymi
Thanks for the useful info.
It showed that during the week of the elections in '04 the Dems had a +5 advantage, yet they were off by 3 points. Using the same logic Obama would be only up +3 (+11-3-5).

I don't know...maybe people minds have shifted in 4 years (But has any of true idealogical concepts changed, and will this affect who they choose for president regardless of Party ID)

Nice to see all three polls back to back. As for the bluer, when we get to look at the data, we will probably see that the obamamercial killed McCain's momentum and swung it or at least stabilized Obama's numbers. A few more jabs at Palin via McCain's own camp and Republicans probably helped too. All the very tight battleground numbers we saw in the earlier came prior to the obamamercial Oct. 28/29. Not that the margin will be as large as these suggest. This is very bad news for McCain.

Nice to see all three polls back to back. As for the bluer, when we get to look at the data, we will probably see that the obamamercial killed McCain's momentum and swung it or at least stabilized Obama's numbers. A few more jabs at Palin via McCain's own camp and Republicans probably helped too. All the very tight battleground numbers we saw in the earlier came prior to the obamamercial Oct. 28/29. Not that the margin will necessarily be as large as these suggest, or that PA is definitely in Obama's camp.

Drudge has been quiet so far....must be one last night of bad news for Johnny Mac.

Drudge has been quiet so far....must be one last night of bad news for Johnny Mac.

@RussTC3:
In the final poll, 38% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats, 34% as independents and 26% as Republicans. Among likely voters, the figures are 39%, 31% and 29%, respectively.

Isn't that what I posted above..please note the sandwiching of Indies between the D and R in the Gallup writeup :)

"WillPearson:
thank god for PPP, right?"

Really, nothing hurts like not having your fix of polls 2 nights before election :)

DTM ... Your first paragraph explanation about Pennsylvania is precisely what I was thinking.

Relative to the country as a whole, Pennsylvania may actually now be just a point or two more Republican (it would still go for Obama easily). And this would result from higher Democratic performance in Southern states like Virginia and North Carolina.

Lech

Whew, what a day. The logical half of my brain was saying "don't worry, it will be OK" but my liberal angst-ridden half was freaking out over polls showing a slight drop in the spread. These latest numbers -- so consistent! -- from PA and nationally are awesome. I will sleep better.

JtP

P.S. A big thank you to the people who run this site, and everyone (even boomshak, before the post that got him banned) for the mostly insightful and entertaining comments.

MODERATEGUY

you can't compare the 2004 Electorate polls and nationals polls with the Makeup of 2008 because Obama is actacking the Electorate from a different approach.

Wow DTM very insightful...

Anyways...I just playing devil's advocate. I for Obama all the way(even though I would have rather had somebody like Mark Warner...but oh well)

mac

Obama did the rope-a-dope to perfection with Hillary at the end, and around the time of his trip abroad.

Reminds me of the game of go as well.

Incredible numbers coming out

Just to repeat what I posted in another thread ...

The final Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio shows Obama with a six point lead: 52 to 46.

The winner of the final Dispatch poll before a Presidential election has carried Ohio every single time in modern Ohio history.

Lech

LOL @ PPP. Psyops at its best. I hope they spend Axelrod boy's money well.

Think the networks will be using any of these poll numbers tomorrow, or the Gallup numbers, or will they cling to the Mason Dixon ones?

Strictly rhetorical question here, by the way.

ModerateGuy:
It showed that during the week of the elections in '04 the Dems had a +5 advantage, yet they were off by 3 points. Using the same logic Obama would be only up +3 (+11-3-5).

If you notice in that data for 2004 for several weeks leading into the election, there was a lot of back and forth between the parties as to who had more affiliates and the Indies were waffling between R and D and the margin between R and D was much smaller too.

In 2008 the Dems have been ahead pretty much all the way for the whole year and by better margins....that is the real key this election cycle.

Let's not get too confident guys. I'm superstitious. Smiling, but superstitious.

I think we all owe a big thanks to Hilary, not only for testing Obama so forcefully, but for also campaigning her heart out for him.

Going up against her and winning + the most brilliantly run campaign in modern history means that an African American junior senator is going to beat a famous, decorated POW.

Amazing. Truly amazing.

Thinking back to 2004....The RCP poll average looked like Bush was going to win the election. I remember those few days before the election thinking, "Maybe the polls are wrong. Maybe Kerry will surge and win OH or FL. Maybe, just maybe, those polls are wrong!"

They weren't.

Its really hard to measure the national polls with respect to one state because if McCain takes say California or New York and gains 2 points each in those locations despite being down by 20 points plus in each state it could raise his national average by 1 point. or McCain could gain ground in states he was going to win anyway which we are seeing in some of polls. We won't know until Tuesday night if its an Decisive OBama victory or Wednesday morning if it is down to the wire!

@RaleighNC

Hopefully gallup spends the money well too. And Abc. And CBS. And Rasmussen. And Pew. And CNN. And Marist. And R2k. Maybe zogby as well?

@ sunnymi
My bad, I read it wrong.

The fact remains jp its highly unlikely you are going to win the electoral losing the pop vote by more than 2 points, and even 2 points is hard to overcome

@kerrchdavis:

No question about that....their primary battle rounded his edges and helped him realize the grassroot infrastructure he had in mind all along..that is what is helping so much now.

We cannot forget Howard Dean's 50-state strategy either..it is that idea that Obama and his team took and ran with.

Well, now that they threw the kitchen sink at Obama, they've started tearing up the kithen linoleum and throwing that at Obama too — they are using the Rev Wright smear against him.

@RaleighNC

Hmmm... the tone of your posts sure sounds familiar. Hmmm... very interesting.

SurveyUSA has Minnesota statistical tie, Coleman up.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f848e0e7-4b37-4480-9248-35238dba01ce

@jp- not if you believe the large national polls spreads. If a candidate win by +8 nationally, he is going to win, simply as that. At that level battle ground states start to dwindle away.

Minny dems are kind of mad for being ignored, but thell come through on tuesday

@RaleighNC

They're last MN poll by SUSA on Oct 2nd had McCain leading by 1. So, even if you want to buy this outlier, your candidate is still trending very badly. On top of that the MN poll by Star-Tribune out of MN today has Obama up 11.

But, on Tuesday, you'll be able to tell us all you told us so ;).

lol!

@kerrch

Yes. Hilary looked as though she might lose it completely and become a spoiler, but she rose to the occasion. Sleep deprivation took its toll on her as it is doing on McCain.

Obama's physical condition is part of what makes him the Tiger Woods of politics. He's not even breathing hard.

@Lechuguilla

Indeed, and I think the Democrats are expecting much better performance out West as well.

That said, I also think the PA polls may end up being a bit on the narrow side. But we shall see.

@ RaleighNC

And all of the other polls showing the same results are all bogus too? 31 hours ,21 minutes and counting.

MN ain't going to McCain.

Even Rass has Obama +12.

Survey USA has the "tightest" polling in MN and McCain was polling in the 30's as recently as the 29th. Meanwhile, in the past two weeks Obama has hit 57 twice, 56 twice and 55 once.

Give it up.

@basil

Agreed. If the way he has run his campaign is indicative of how Obama will run the country, we are truly blessed to be electing such a remarkable candidate.

@kerrch

I agree, this is an outlier, but SUSA did have a poll on 10/18 that was O +6.

@kerrchdavis...

I'm not a sore winner, so I won't rub anything in. I'll just watch y'all stew in your squalor of calling it all "stolen". The pleasure will be all mine I assure you.

@Raleigh

You wouldn't happen to know a man who lives in a SHAK, now would you?

NBC/WSJ Poll

Obama - 51
McCain - 43

I live in MN and I was contacted by Democrat campaign workers a total of 5 times today - FIVE.

The most I've heard from McCain was an RNC robocall two days ago.

One poll out of MN and old reliable TIPP are the only ones who can call the election. Everything else must be off by 10 points.

I am excited and very nervous at the same time. I just can't shake the feeling. I keep remembering the pundit's enthusiasm and the polls right before New Hamshire. I know the circumstances are completely different but....

Remember MN is a "same day register and vote on election day" state and upwards of 20% have done so in the last 2 elections....GOTV is paramount there.

@RaleighNC

I'm glad you're well stocked on hallucinogens. I hear they're selling out rapidly in Republican areas at the moment.

Teaser from PPP regarding OH:
Given that Ohio may well be icing on the cake, any lead is a good lead even if it's within the margin of error, right? Up by midnight hopefully.

I look at the PPP poll here and other places and ask about selection. I say the same about Strategic Vision. I know both watch this site. They know the methodology, etc. So exactly who of party committees, candidate committees, 527s, etc. has paid each of you this cycle????

To both of you ... if you are on the up and up here and don't have a "dog in the fight" or "skin in the game" you'll disclose it. And someone might actually check the reports after the election.

I love this site. Its owners have their histories and biases just like all of us, but they do a really good job of trying to be objective, even if they do let their view obstructe their analysis at times. We all do. I have to admit, I have become really frustrated by the conversations of political cheerleading both right and left.

I wish the discussion were more directed at the "mathematics" than the opinions people express. Good God. The ignorance of the science (or art) of polling expressed by some is truly frustrating. At least understand a little bit of what polling is all about before shooting off your mouth about who is good and who is bad.

I think one of the great things about the authors of this site is that they truly seem to care about the "math" even if they are clearly for one candidate or another. Point is, if the math is wrong, understand why and how to do it better in the future.

Now to pontificate a little more ... and please feel free to tell me I am an idiot.

The biggest problem going with polling this cycle is the competition to call it right. Everyone seems, with a few exceptions, to want to win the "prize" for being closest. Being closest doesn't mean you did the best job of presenting the existing data. In fact, with some of the clowns doing polling these days it seems like they are more concerned with their models than the data.

I have a pretty extenstive background in using polls as stategic issue and marketing development. The firs thing you look for in hiring one of those people is their commitment to generate meaningful data. I never wanted the sugar coated approach. So ...

Hats off to a couple of people this cycle ...

DailyKos/R2K ... if I was the Obama campaign I wouldn't like them for anything other than their results ... why ... I think their model way overstated the reality of the electorate. Again, remember I said ... its accuracy ... not make me feel good.

GWU/Battleground ... at least once a week they give you extensive internals. You can make your own judgements. And they have an unaided ballot. In other words, data with no push.

Rasmussen ... sort of ... once a week if you pay for them you get crosstabs of some use. I'm a subscriber ... but I think their daily snapshot hides more than it reveals. I'd like to know a little more about the crosstab movement, but they like everyone that does party weighting ... well ... not showing the CTs daily hides more than it reveals. Oh, and one biggy that Rasmussen does give is "certain voters." That is a major missing detail from virtually everyone else except Rasmussen.

Mason Dixon -- I know they are criticized as leaning R. But truth be told, their polls are almost always accurate from a statistical MOE approach ... even when they pick the wrong winner. Part of the reason is that their polling approach does not push excessively to get people to "make a decision." Too many others do.

For this years biggest hall of shame pollster ... regardless of the results ... GALLUP. Show us some more data. Don't screw around with multiple models. Notice the convergence. Hello folks ... regardless of results ... can't you see them looking for validation for what they've been doing all these years.

Second place hall of shame ... zogby. Let's make dull boring data look newsworthy with hype rather than sticking to a straight statistical discussion.

Third Place Tie ... ABC, CBS/NYTimes, CNN. How about even a morsel of meaningful internals guys. If you believe in your work then lay it all out on the table.

Almost done venting ... but here's the deal. When pollsters tell us its 52 -47 with an MOE of 2 it suggest the race will fall between 50 - 49 and 54 -45. But if you see the real data it says 47-43 certain voters ... or 49-41 with 10 left or 45 -45 with ten left. A very different picture. Point is that the pollsters are too concerned with projecting their opinions and views of likely outcomes than reporting meaningful AND COMPLETE DATA so we can all look at it and make our own assessments.

Tell us what the DATA SAYS ... NOT WHAT YOU THINK IT SAYS.

For instance, I'll pick on Morning Call in PA right now. I'm sure glad that you're not my pollster if I'm Obama. Or McCain for that matter. How on God's green earth can you have the size of the move that you've had in three days if you've got your methodology down? I try to look at the numbers --- with the little you get and it's pretty hard to find a statistical regime under which that happens unless you were Mark Foley in 2006.

OK enough ... I welcome slings and arrows based on a discussion of data and methodology which is what I thought this was all about. Oh. For hoots, lets all say where were from and where we are registered to vote. As for me ... registered voter in the Commonwealth of Virginia since 1978. Prior to that registered voter in New York State.

@Raleigh

Sore WINNER? I thought you were a supporter of McCain, not Obama?

But seriously, you actually think McRage will carry MN? When poll after poll, other than SUSA, has Obama up double digits? Uh... sure, whatever makes you sleep a little easier at night, I suppose. BTW, tell your friend who lives in the SHAK that all of his friends at Pollster.com said hello.

very interesting poll in MN...outlier even though SUSA is the best pollster IMO. Obama still leading there although it's within the MOE

It is obvious SUSA is doing something different than all the others in MN but we will know soon if they were right.

@Dana Adini,

Sad that SurveyUsa didn't poll MN in 2004, so we don't have an idea as to how they perform in the state :-(

PPP doesn't sound confident about Ohio.

I don't know all of their details but I can say the basis SUSA approach is to pull a random sample and live with the results. So if your samples good the result should be represenative within the MOE regardless of your demographic breakdown.

Statistically correct, but troublesome in more heterogeneous states where its easier to look at a sample and say it doesn't match the population.

PPP - Ohio

Obama - 50
McCain - 48

The SUSA poll does make me nervous (not to be a concern troll). The outstate areas of Minnesota can be pretty conservative. It was a bit disheartening this weekend making calls to independents and people who had voted dem in the past in the rural towns - most of these older white voters were leaning Republican. Canvassers have told me that race is definitely an issue in the more rural areas. The phone bank event host told me they were having difficulty keeping up with the GOTV phonebank goals here (Rochester, southeast). Glad the Twin Cities is well-covered. Hopefully that will be enough to compensate.

PPP Ohio

Obama- 50
McCain -48

Early Voters
Obama - 65
McCain - 34

Tight, but we don;t need it and McCain has a LONG way to make up that Early voter margin. PPP is predicting a 54-44 McCain margin on election day voters in order for that to happen. I don't think that is doable.

@Raleigh

I'm not sure that the only way McCain can win is through '00 and '04 style GOP thuggery, though only a fool would rule it out completely.

It might just be that a larger fraction of the public are schizoid racists who turn into so many Doctor Strangeloves in the voting booth and fight the hand that's pulling the lever for McCain--people who compulsively lie to themselves and others about how open minded they are but who, the moment they step into the voting booth fall into a semi-conscious shadow world of menacing, powerful black men and dark alleys.

It's a dark vision, but hey, whatever works for you. I've been to NC, so I know where you're coming from. I assume your rifle is loaded and that you will be too by about 9 pm.

I would expect a lot of grunting and banging at polling places if that scenario plays out.

NOT.

About 635,000 have voted in OH, so that's

O: 412,750
M: 222,250

Less than 200,000 for McCain to make up - considering 6-7 million will vote, seems very doable.

But the good news: Obama don't need OH anymore than he needs Georgia or N. Carolina, although winning any of those three will seal the deal.

Actually the number to win for McCain is 57%-43% on the day of Election.

The 54-44 difference gets you to that 2 point win by Obama. That would not be enough.

According to the poll 30% of the respondents say they have voted. Not 10% (635K of 6-7million) so are you sure that the numbers you are citing are correct? Or are people over stating their "already voted" propensity? Or is it that these are LV's that make the difference?

Regarding PPP's OH poll: overwhelming advantage among the early voters (for Obama), and a rather large deficit among those who whill vote on the election day....

Ummm............ This projection will only hold IF the reason why Obama has such a wide margin among the early voters is because Obama voters are voting early, while McCain voters are simply waiting for 11/4.

however, what if the real reason for the early voter advantage is due to the aggressive and highly effective GOTV advantage Obama has. If that's the case, then we should also reasonably project that the same GOTV advantage will also benefit Obama on the election day - meaning, those voters who were "dropped" by the LV voter model would should up, and other Obama voters will be pushed to show up and vote proportionally more than the McCain supporters....

In that case, the projection that McCain will win over Obama among the voters that vote on 11/4 is not a done deal.

I remember reading an interview with Axelord that his internal analysis of the early voters confirm their strategy: that, many first time and sporadic dem leaning voters who would have been dropped by the LV type poll model indeed SHOWED UP as early voters.

Thoughts?????

Mccain camp keeps saying "we just have to pick PA, and this balance the losses elsewhere (IA, NM...). True enough, but the same could be said about California or New York xD

Remember, in order for McCain to win:

1) He has to hold all the "strong" and "leaning" Red states.

2) He has to win all the toss-up "yellow" states.

3) He has to win all the leaning Obama states, or win all but one and win "strong" Pennsylvania.

And he has to do this with a ground campaign that is in far worse shape than Obama's.

Bush was predicted to win in 2004 by polling, but he out-performed what the polling indicated by having a good effective campaign structure and getting out the vote.

If the same thing happens tomorrow...woo hoo!

Reality check: I live outside Philly. Couple of days ago, I asked people not to bet on PA for Obama like they're doing. I still stand by it. I want Obama to win, but just don't trust PA right now.

Still my question is unanswered: How, in a heavily anti-Republican year, when unlikely Reds are turning Blue, a consistently Blue State is even being discussed? If it's not racism, what else is it? Is there any other blue State being tossed around?