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PA: Toomey 48 Specter 36 (Rasmussen 8/11)


Rasmussen
8/11/09; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: IVR
(Rasmussen release)

Pennsylvania

Job Approval / Disapproval

Pres. Obama: 51 / 47 (chart)
Gov. Rendell: 39 / 60 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable

Arlen Specter: 43 / 54 (chart)
Pat Toomey: 54 / 26
Joe Sestak: 40 / 36

2010 Senate: General Election

Toomey 48%, Specter 36% (chart)
Toomey 43%, Sestak 35% (chart)

Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?

42% Favor, 53% Oppose

(Primary election data for this poll is available here)

 

Comments
RussTC3:

This poll is hilariously awesome.

You have GOT to love Rasmussen. He never lets you down. lol

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jmartin4s:

I was not sure what to believe about this poll until I saw that Governor Rendell's unfavorability was 60%. This I do not believe because Ed Rendell is one of the nation's most popular governors.

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RHiraku:

And the fact that Toomey is a far-right conservative in a very democratic state. I try to give most polls the benefit of the doubt of the doubt but not this. I see almost no chance of Pennsylvania electing Toomey.

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Stillow:

We need more polls to confirm or debunk this.

A lot of "conservative" democrats live in PA...and Specter is all over the place with what he beleives in....he changes with the wind. This could be a manifestation of a vote against Specter and not necessarily for Toomey....but we need more polling...one poll isn't worth anything.

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starbase135:

I agree that Rasmussen polls seem to have a GOP bias. So Toomey might lead Specter in a hypothetical matchup by a few points (but not 12) or they might as well be tied. But I don't think that Specter has the upper hand in this race anymore.

@jmartin4s & RHiraku: Rendell hasn't been one of the nation's most popular governors in a while. In fall 2008 his approval rating was already hovering in the 50s and other recent polls have determined a negative net approval rating by now. Also PA is not a "very democratic" state. It is the reddest of the blue states, but by far not very democratic.

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LordMike:

Wow! I actually agree with Stillow! Specter is a first class weasel, and everyone knows it!

Sestak's lower numbers are proabably from unfamiliarity... But, make no mistake about it, Specter is in as weak a position now as he was before he switched... probably weaker 'cos he's flipping all over the place and stands for nothing...

It's a very good thing that Sestak is running...

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JMSTiger:

jmartin4s---

Rendell is not nearly as popular as he was a year or two ago. He is trying to push through tax increases in the middle of a recession and the economy being the tank is taking a toll on him.

As for the Toomey-Specter match-up, I have a hard time believing Specter is trailing by that much. I wouldn't doubt he is down by a few points though.

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Scott:

Regarding Rendell's approval numbers, he is now in net negative approval territory. And this poll matchs up with the Quinnipiac poll from a weeks ago showing 39% approval and 53% disapproval. And with the Franklin & Marshall poll showing 38% approval and 59% disapproval.

So this poll isn't far off from those numbers. Specter and the Dems are tanking here.

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IdahoMulato:

We live to see. I follow polls but don't put much credence to many of them.

I remember Tim Kaine was behind 4 years ago and came from behind to win. There're other dems who did same. These races are far from over. It depends on many factors beyond anybody's control. I believe the Corzine and Deeds will come from behind to win the races in NJ and VA. PA is difficult to poll. Many can remember a few days to the 08 election, McCain internal polls showed a close race; and that was also confirmed by other pollsters as well. What was the final results?

Many low-information and no-information voters are being misinformed and/or disinformed about the inpending healthcare overhaul and right wing cable TV and radio networks fulminations relating to issues surrounding the healthcare overhaul legislation, TARP and CARS (or cash for clunkers) programs. The involvement of the right wing groups and their political allies/ilks/cohorts in political chicanery will come back to hurt them.
Yesterday, Ms Kathy Abram, the lady who was shouting and yelling from a script downloaded from a right wing website at Specter's Town Hall meeting, was invited to hardball to explain why she was so ticked off about the healthcare overhaul; It's was interesting and laughable. She had no understanding of what she was saying to the point I even cringed. When asked whether her grand parents will go for medicare, a govt-run healthcare insurance program she had no answer. She also had no answer to whether she earns more than $250K and whether her taxes have increased; she had no answer. She doesn't even know what socialism means.
Most of these people are either racists or stupid. They're the same people who turn up at TEA parties. I do also know there're many people who have genuine concerns but yelling and shouting people out/down is primitive.

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Californian:

Worst poll ever.

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IdahoMulato:

Rouge poll

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