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PA-Sen: 46% Toomey (R), 39% Sestak (D) (Muhlenberg 9/18-23)

Topics: Pennsylvania , poll

Muhlenberg College / Morning Call
9/18-23/10; 445 likely voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Muhlenberg College release)

Pennsylvania

2010 Governor
46% Corbett (R), 37% Onorato (D) (chart)

2010 Senate
46% Toomey (R), 39% Sestak (D) (chart)

 

Comments
Paleo:

47(R)-44(D)-9(I)? If more Republicans turn out than Democrats, then the result is plausible. Apparently was 43(D)-38(R)-19(I) in '06. And Dems have a 1 million registered voter edge over Republicans.

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BH:

"43(D)-38(R)-19(I) in '06"

That's not a plausible scenario either - as this midterm was saw a very Democratically charged electorate who took back the House and was ramped up via Bush...probably not the case this year.

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BH:

Btw, it should be noted that Sestak and Onorato can't seem to break above 42 in most polls. Maybe undecideds will break near 100% for them, but I wouldn't count on it. PA is looking very much like OH right now.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

Pa always switches governors after 8 years. We are like the country in that respect. SO Corbett will probably win this. Rendell's numbers are helping Onorato either. Sestak still can win this though. So count him out. His ads are going to work with PA voters especially Northeastern PA.

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