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Pennsylvania Dem Sensitivity Comparison

Topics: 2008

Here is an update on the Pennsylvania Trend Estimates for both the standard estimator and the more sensitive one.

The difference is small: 0.3 for Clinton and 0.8 for Obama. But hey, it can be a game of inches. Either way it looks like about a 5 point margin right now.

(See earlier posts for details on the standard and sensitive estimate. The sensitive is about twice as responsive to the data, but tends to chase ghosts.)

Cross posted at PoliticalArithmetik.com

 

Comments
Joseph E:

Despite what the trends are calculating, the most important consideration is what will happen with the undecided voters. The pollsters (like SurveyUSA) which push harder are showing a bigger lead for Clinton. We also have seen that the winner often gets a bigger percentage of the undecideds at the polls.

Obama will get a little more, ending up with 43 to 45 percent, leaving Clinton 55 to 58 for a spread of 10 to 15 percent. I think it is very unlikely for Obama to get within 5%, but also unlikely for Clinton to win more than 58% since Obama seems to have over 40% already locked in.

The question is, how will this be spun? It will be a solid win for Clinton, but not what she needs to win the nomination. The media will make a big deal of it, as with Ohio (though her percentage will be about the same), most likely, but it may not change anything.

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