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Politico/InsAdv: OH, FL, GA (10/22)

Topics: PHome

Politico / Insider Advantage
10/22/08
Mode: IVR
(source)

Florida 562 LV, 4.5%
Obama 48, McCain 47

Ohio 408 LV, 5%
Obama 52, McCain 42


InsiderAdvantage
10/23/08; 615 LV, 4%
Mode: IVR

Georgia
Obama 48, McCain 47
Sen: Chmabliss 44, Martin 42, Buckley 2

 

Comments
Atomique:

Huh. I wonder why they included a third-party candidate in the Georgia Senate poll but not in the Georgia Presidential poll. I wonder what those numbers would look like with Bob Barr and Cynthia McKinney (both Georgians) included.

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boomshak2.0:

Georgia is a very American state.They would never vote for a Communist.This poll is bullsh*t

FAIL.

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boomspin:

McCain surge! Yeah! And why are there so many fake versions of me all over the place?

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boomshak2.0:

Excuse me? I am the real boomshak.YOu must be some communist moonbat.Ha! Obama is collapsing!

Fail.

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freedomreigns:

First of all, I don't believe the GA number. That state is just not ready to turn blue this year. Maybe next time.

Second, how can Florida be tied but a 10 point difference in Ohio.

I would take all these polls with a grain of salt the same way I would take StratVis with a grain of salt.

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alankeyesisawesome:

This poll is a huge defeat for libs...both Florida and Georgia are must-win states for Obama and he is only one point behind.

Why is Obama on a Hawaii vacation right now?

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decided:

what a poor sample size in ohio.

seems like insideradvantage did not pay their phone bill ;-)

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jlm9:

Again I would like this poll to be true - but I suspect it will be a late night in GA on the 4th which will ultimately end in a McCain win in GA and a runoff in the Senate election. To be honest the Senate election is far more interesting here then the presidential simply because if Obama wins GA then the election will be over well before GA is called.

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zhimbo:

Hmmmm...Maybe my "Maine to Miami Walking Tour of Blue States" business idea will work out after all.

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zhimbo:

My "Portland to Portland Walking Tour of Blue States" is definitely going to have to wait until Idaho wises up.

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zhimbo:

My "Portland to Portland Walking Tour of Blue States" will have to wait for Idaho to wise up, at the very least.

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Fioreb:

LOL I wonder where alankeyesisawesome is getting his advise/information from. For the last 2 weeks I have been seeing electoral maps giving Sen Obama from 273 to 300+ electoral votes with none of those ever including carrying Georgia and Florida. You may want to double check the facts dear friend. Admittedly, if Georgia and Florida are won by Obama that would be a clear sign of a landslide victory for Obama unseen for several decades, and yes I think it could happen that way.

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Hope Reborn:

+10% in Ohio from a Republican Pollster? Good Lord, Good Night....

GA and FL are the gravy...

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fox:

Keep it up, show them Republican stronghold state can turn blue too.

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Jeff:

alankeyesisawesome:

FL & GA are not must win states for Obama. You need to check your electoral math or perhaps explain what blue states you think Obama is doing to lose to make FL & GA must-wins.

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jatchwa:

Any doubts I had over whether alankeyesisawesome was serious or just messing with us was eliminated by his contention that Georgia is a must-win state for Obama.

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Disco Stu:

@ alankeyesisawesome:

First of all, how in the world are EITHER Ohio OR Florida "must wins?" Is it too much of a stretch to expect non-"elitist", "intellegencia" types to be able to ADD!?!

Secondly, HOW IN THE WORLD CAN YOU HARP ON OBAMA FOR GOING TO VISIT HIS DYING GRANDMOTHER!?!?! WHO EFFECTIVELY RAISED HIM!?! Reports are that she may not LIVE to see ELECTION DAY! You, sir, are PATHETIC!!!!

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zvelf:

Obama currently leads in Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Ohio. If he keeps every other state he leads in, he could lose all of those I just listed and he'd still win.

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gjdodger:

They did include third party candidates, Atomique. "Other--2%."

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BostonCommie:

Hey everyone, can't you see that alankeyesisawesome is being sarcastic, he has done that all the time, more of a satire on Boomshak. If you can't see that, you need to lighten up.

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katocat:

Wow, Obama up one in GA?

Please someone poll Arizona... I'm not so sure McCain can win it any longer.

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thisniss:

With one exception, everyone I know in GA is a Republican. They've all voted early, and all for Obama. Believe it; something huge is happening there. I been sayin' GA would follow NC. I still think SC will come in much closer than it's polling at the moment. WV will walk the line, not sure if it will cross over but I still think there's a chance.

I'm calling 401 EVs. :-)

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JedRothwell:

I am in Georgia in a Republican neighborhood, in North Atlanta. I see mostly McCain yard signs, and the people around here are definitely voting for McCain.

Ten minutes away in Decatur, where the Obama headquarters are located, the yard signs are all for Obama. This election has a high degree of geographic concentration of supporters. You don't see many mixed neighborhoods.

I decided not to put up an Obama yard sign, so as not to encourage my neighbors to vote. I tell them "you people are going to win Georgia anyway, so why bother to vote? Sleep in! Avoid the long lines!"

My gut feeling is that McCain will win Georgia, but not by as much as most polls indicate. It all depends on the AA turnout. So far that has been higher than their fraction of the population, which bodes well for Obama. One news report says: "36% of the state's voters so far are black, a 10 percentage point jump from 2004." The black population is 30% (U.S. Census Bur.)

Georgia and other states under the jurisdiction of the Voting Rights Act has to keep track of the race of people voting, so these stats are probably from official sources and therefore reliable.

I do not normally approve of "identity politics" or voting for someone just because he is a member of your race, but in the case of black people voting for Obama, I will make an exception. A purely partisan, hypocritical exception, that would infuriate me if the shoe was on the other foot!

Georgia Obama supporters are not all black people, by any means. Decatur is mostly a white neighborhood, and I have seen a bumper sticker several times saying: "White middle class guy for Obama."

While there is definitely some white racism working against Obama with many voters, there are also a surprising number of blatantly racist white voters who openly favor Obama! Some have told me that even though many black people are lazy or undependable (or what-have-you), they know that others are not, and they think that Obama is smart and capable. I think by now even the worst racists have encountered black people at the office or in stores who are clearly competent and hard working. Actually, there are so many black people in the south you would have to be hermit or delusional not to realize this.

Racism is complicated.

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