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POLL: 4 ARG Statewide Surveys


Four new American Research Group statewide surveys of 600 likely voters each in Colorado, New Jersey, New York, and West Virginia find:

  • Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards by more than ten points in all four state primaries.
  • Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads Sen. John McCain in New Jersey and New York. Giuliani's advantage over McCain in Colorado (25% to 23%) and McCain's edge over Giuliani in West Virginia (33% to 29%) are both within the margin of sampling error.

 

Comments

600 likely voters -- this is not a valid sample size. Should it not be at least 1400???????

A sample size of 600 would contian too much random error.

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Mark Blumenthal:

Mastermind: Yes, all things being equal, a larger sample size for a random probability sample will reduce random error. However, beyond a reduction in random sampling error, a sample of 600 is no less "valid" than a sample of 1400. Statisticians debate the value of sample sizes smaller than 30 or so, but beyond that, only sampling error varies.

Ideally, a pollster chooses a sample so that the survey will be able to detect effects of the size that pollster wants to test. That's probably a good topic for a future post.

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