Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: ABC/Post Iowa Dem Caucus


A new ABC News/Washington Post statewide survey (ABC story, results; Post story, results) of 500 likely** Democratic caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 7/26 through 7/31) finds a "three-way tie" between Sen. Barack Obama (27%), Sen. Hillary Clinton (26%) and former Sen. John Edwards (26%); Gov Bill Richardson trails at 11%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

** Likely voters were chosen if the respondents said they were registered to vote in Iowa at their present address, if they were certain to attend or probably will attend the Iowa caucus, and if they would vote specifically in the Democratic Party caucus.


Democrats

 

Comments
Anonymous:

This poll isn't consistent with other recent Iowa polls, which have Obama around 15 to 18%. Why would Obama have jumped so dramatically? Has he been doing tv ads there? Or is this a case of a bad sample?

____________________

It is true that Obama has been running ads for the first time in Iowa in the last month or so, however, long before that, many polls were saying that Obama was second place in Iowa: Des Moines Register, Selzer, and all five Strategic Vision polls conducted in Iowa this season. In addition to those polling firms, Mason Dixon reported all three top contenders within four points of each other, and PPP had Obama and Clinton tied for second.

____________________

This poll has sealed John Edwards' fate. He staked his entire campaign on Iowa; it is over.

Actually, for us political junkies, this is no surprise.

But, at least we will start to see less of that pitiful man. Unless, of course, his wife decides to run for him.

You can read my take at Copious Dissent - Your Daily Dose of Liberty

____________________

John:

The polls is the most up to date for Iowa and could be due to the fact that Obama has been running ads there and more people are getting to know him

Clinton isn't running any ads yet because she's spooked by obama in finance.

The national polls are insignificant as they're just a reflection of name recognition.

____________________

Lieberman was leading the Democratic field in 2003 at this point, so some of these polls are not indicative of the actual outcome.

Edwards, who has the best initiatives and ideas to lead this country, has a strong organizational apparatus in Iowa, and I imagine that he will win the state (and hopefully the nomination).

____________________

bk:

O'bama is the clear winner of the primary and todays debate

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR