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Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: ABC/Post National


ABC News (story, results)/
washington Post (story, results)
7/10-13/08; 1,119 Adults, 3%

National

Likely Voters:
Obama 49, McCain 46

Registered Voters:
Obama 50, McCain 42
Obama 49, McCain 39, Barr 2, Nader 5

Adults:
Obama 51, McCain 39
Obama 49, McCain 36, Barr 2, Nader 5

 

Comments
Lompe:

The difference between registered and likely voters seems way too big, but it shows that the Obama campaigns gigantic GOTV efforts make sense.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

a 12-point lead among adults, but just a 3-point lead among likely voters. People on the left are way too complacent and that has to change.

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skibum1981:

I for one the RV is probably a better estimate given the ridiculous # of new registrations that took place in the Dem primary. Perhaps, as an Obama supporter, I'm being optimistic? It just seems, though, when a few hundred thousand new voters registered for the Dem party in PA, for example, that the LV models, based on historical trends, would miss this completely.

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brambster:

I'm very skeptical of likely voter results that are substantially different from registered voter results this cycle because of the enormous enthusiasm gap between Obama and McCain supporters. Nate of 538 made a post about this today:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/hard-support-vs-soft-support.html

In a nutshell, 61% of Obama's support is hard, and only 39% of McCain's support was hard according to the latest Newsweek poll (which isn't weighted well, but other polls have found similar results). He also points out that this is a big jump historically for Democratic enthusiasm, and a mild drop for the Republicans.

I just don't see how it is possible that the difference between likely and registered voters could be 5 points.

On another note, Nader nor Barr will ever get past 2% a piece. Certainly there is nothing this cycle that will make Nader any more appealing that the last two cycles, and Barr may be known in Georgia, but he was never a national figure. Nevertheless, these third parties generally tend to poll high before the conventions, and they almost always under perform even the last polls. Note that I am purposefully an independent, and I would love to see the two party system disappear, but Nader nor Barr are the agents of change.

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