mago:

The state-by-state polls (as per Poblano) and most of the national polls show a very close race, but I wonder how likely that is to persist. The non-norse-race parts of this poll show trends that would suggest a major advantage for the Democrats, and this is certainly the result you'd get from a 13 Keys-type analysis.

OTOH, I suppose some further incident could galvanize sentiment that Obama is too black and too educated to represent 'hard-working Americans.' Either way, I think this is an unstable equilibrium, which at the moment is drifting O-ward.

Posted on May 12, 2008 10:47 PM

 Shadar:

ATM this is poll is an outlier. We'll see if any other polls show similar trends to this one. If Obama starts opening up his lead nationally vs McCain in more polls then there will be very few undecided supers left.

But atm I just don't feel this poll being right. I'd love to believe it but I just get the idea that at this very moment it is closer than this poll shows. Too many other polls are showing this a tight race all around. I'd like to see some more large polls, the daily tracking are fairly worthless imo. I'd love a new NBC poll in particular.

Posted on May 12, 2008 11:14 PM

 axt113:

Actually Shadar I don't think its actually an outlier, you see i've seen at least three polls with an Obama 4 point lead over McCain in the last two weeks; since the MOE in most polls is 3 points or higher, a seven point difference is right in the expected range, so far its the CBS poll with an 11 point lead that I would say is the outlier

Posted on May 13, 2008 1:06 AM

 Nickberry:

I think the daily polls are best for gaging the tightness of the race.

Whereas, these snapshot polls by ABC, CBS, etc. are great for the other information included. For example:

"Obama holds double-digit advantages over McCain on health care, gas prices and the economy. McCain has a 21-point lead on handling the U.S. battle against terrorism, which proved the marquee issue of the 2004 presidential contest. Obama and McCain run almost even on managing the war in Iraq and on immigration."

Posted on May 13, 2008 10:17 AM

 Art:

The spread between Obama and McCain is the same (6 pts.) as the LA Times/Bloomberg poll. That one did have more undecideds. But I'd hesitate to call this one an outlier, especially since, as noted, the issue numbers lean towards Democrats.

Posted on May 13, 2008 12:04 PM

 Art:

((Corrected version of above post))
The spread between Obama and McCain is about the same (7 vs 6 pts.) as the LA Times/Bloomberg poll. That one did have more undecideds. But I'd hesitate to call this one an outlier, especially since, as noted, the issue numbers lean towards Democrats.

Posted on May 13, 2008 12:06 PM

 Jeff:

Although Eric put it in the header, it's worth noting here that the sample was adults, with no screen for likely or even registered voters. Just saying...

Posted on May 13, 2008 12:24 PM

 kingsbridge77:

this poll shows that Obama is en route to an easy win in November, against an aging candidate in an unpopular Republican party.

Posted on May 13, 2008 1:17 PM