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POLL: ABC/Post National (8/19-22)


ABC News /
Washington Post
8/19-22/08; 916 RV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(ABC story, results; Post story, results)

National
RV: Obama 49, McCain 43
(July: Obama 50, McCain 42)

LV: Obama 49, McCain 45
(July: Obama 49, McCain 46)

 

Comments
boskop:

well, obama should sleep more soundly based on this.

BUT...

i agree with the evaluation of the lag in the inevitable polls. it probably is a good idea to suspend them during the next four days.

as a former biden for president supporter and one of the very few i should be very excited to see him on the ticket.

except that i am decidedly miserable. his temperament and brain needs the unbridled environment of the senate or as head of a ticket.

already he is being 'handled' to death and forced to mouthe slogans that make him most likely but certainly myself definitely want to toss their cookies: "there's something about the man..."


well, yes, there is something about obama. there's that misogyny you heard in "you're likable enough, hillary" that made hillary for veep so reviling that he didnt even employ his now over the top lip service.

there's his pro-choice mania that threw late stage mangled abort victims under the bus. the audio clips are now emerging where he does just this.

BUT.....he said he never said this. liar liar obama pants on fire.

now it's my turn to throw biden, sadly, under the bus for the common good. i have written to certain people calling their attention to something that occurred during the primary debate cycle.

dennis kucinich addressing the steelworkers union said something very unique when quoting his father. his words were very specific.

AND...those words came back not once, but twice from the mouth of joe biden saying, "my father used to say..." and in public debate forums. the evidence is on google. perceptive news junkies know what it is. do you??

i have collected some of it and have left the rest of the disclosure to those in a high profile position.

for pundits who maintain as does bill press (who i also like more than others) that hillaryites are only 'slightly angry' and will heave to, i am a perfect example of someone who despises obama so much that i would do anything to jeopardize his candidacy even if that means throwing my favorite candidate of all time under the bus to get there.

when biden dropped out i went to hillary.

you obama people out there are familiar with throwing beloved souls under the bus. your man does it all the time.

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faithhopelove:

This poll and today's just-released Rasmussen tracker are the 13th and 14th consecutive national polls showing Obama ahead of McCain.

ABC has Obama up 4, a 1-point improvement over July. This poll was completed before the Biden pick, so it does not reflect any bounce.

The right-leaning Rasmussen has Obama up 3 among likely voters, with leaners and w/o leaners.

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zotz:

PUMAs are idiots. 'nuff said.
I think I would have more confidence in this poll had the sampling size been larger. 1,500 or more I think reduces the chances for an outlier.

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boskop:

PUMA's, fool, can derail your candidate for good.
better watch your mouth.

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thoughtful:

A couple days ago, I commented with a great deal of regret that at 72, John McCain may not be electable.

This poll and every other poll where McCain struggles to max out at 45% underlines the point.

I don't like prejudice on any grounds.

I have to say I have been won over by the WISDOM of the Biden VP pick. The Republican attack machine was ready for both Biden and Hillary - Obama's fiercest critics alongside my friend Boskop.

Rather than divide the Party, the Republican attacks have made it an absolute certainty that the Democrats will unite like never before and indeed convince the undecided and waverers from Hill's side to the Democratic agenda. Not Boskop, I'd like to help my friend, though.

If a united Democratic Party polls, Obama will win by a 7-10% magin nationally.

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boskop:

thoughtful.
your gratuitous smarm aside..

thanks for your rather dumb comment about age. biden's only validates mccain's bid. he is the flip side of the same coin.

if i could vote for biden as prez i would. since i cant i vote for the nearest thing to it.

biden just makes obama look that much more monomaniacal and devoid of a shred of a honesty and backstory. he's still the empty suit he always was just now it looks more limp hanging beside the expert tailoring of biden's.

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Patrick:

There really isn't much point in looking at national polls until both conventions are over and both running mates have been announced. Personally, I think Biden was about the worst running mate Obama could have selected. For a candidate whose entire campaign is based on "Washington is broken" and "we need change, change, change" to select someone who's been in the Senate for 36 years and is the ultimate Washington insider is just dumb. Plus the age issue goes away since Biden is only a few years younger than McCain (but has had brain aneurysms, so isn't even as healthy). Then you've got everyone asking (all morning on the news already), "why is Obama at the top of this ticket??". Then there's the fact that Biden voted to invade Iraq. Wasn't that vote his main primary beef with Hillary?? Next you have the fact that Biden's own 1988 campaign ended due to his plagarizing a famous speech. When you're running a "campaign of words", this seems rather hypocritical. Finally, Biden has a long history of losing his temper and "flying off the handle". The Republicans will goading him all Fall to do this. If McCain selects Colin Powell or someone else exciting (e.g. a woman) as his running mate, I think he'll get a bigger bounce out of his convention than Obama. And I think it'll all come down to Ohio (AGAIN) and McCain will win.

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boskop:

latest colorado poll shows reversal for obama. very slight though. if eric is happily retracing his national lines in light of the abc polls, why none of the same for colorado??? makes you wonder about this site.. \\

but we have known this for a while anyway.

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boskop:

@patrick, you hit all the points on the head.
thx.

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KipTin:

This poll is statistically the SAME as the previous poll. Up 1 is still NOTHING... especially when compared to registered voters where Obama lost 2 points in his lead over McCain... But again still within margin of error. Sure be optimistic, but don't manufacture hype where no facts exist to back it up. Instead read the story and focus on Obama's strength's in the poll.

On thing that BOTH candidates will be paying attention to is stated as follows: "Plenty of registered voters -- 27 percent -- remain movable, meaning they are either undecided or say they might change their minds. Movables currently divide evenly, 37-36 percent, between Obama and McCain. They are a prime target for both campaigns."

In other words, it is still a real horse race.

P.S. The day following the Dem convention (on Friday) McCain will announce his VP selection... and the GOP convention begins the following Monday.

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zotz:

thoughtful-
she's lovely, isn't she?

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thoughtful:

@Boskop

We go to the polls to elect a President. I don't think the Veeps are that important, however The Repubs have given a big opportunity to say how WISE Obama is and how ready he is to lead.

The latest Repub Ads big mistake, unites the party.

Last throw of the dice the weatherman and the good pastor?

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KipTin:

I agree with Patrick on the following issues:

1. Obama's "change" message is tossed aside for a VP with 36 years as Senator in Washington DC.
2. Obamanation cannot now harp on McCain's age. Biden will be 66 on Nov. 20.
3. The Iraq War "vote" has run its course anyway, but Obama still uses it in his speeches. He will have to drop the line that his stance (not vote) against going to Iraq shows his "good judgment" because Biden indeed did vote the same as Hillary and McCain.

I will add because of Biden:
4. Also off the table is the issue of who has the most "interaction" with lobbyists.


Watching "Face the Nation"... Sebelius just said that McCain has 25 years in Washington DC fighting for the policies of the Bush Administration. Bush has been in office for 25 years?

Notably, Jesse Jackson, Jr. (not senior) immediately interrupted her to change the topic and cover her gaffe. And that is why Sebelius (among many other factors) was not chosen for VP.

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thoughtful:

@kiptin
1.Biden has authored CHANGE legislation unlike McCain.
2. Obama is like me a non-ageist unfortuately at least 20% of the voters will not vote for McCain for that reason. He can win the other 80%!
3. The Iraq War is a stain in United States history. The Iraqis don't want us there. They used us to get rid of Sadaam Hussein.

Now the real substance Obama is rated number 1 and Biden number 3 as Liberals in their Senate voting records!

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KipTin:

A very effective ad is already out on Ayers and the Weather Underground... and goes to Obama's judgement.

Reverend Wright may emerge on his own, without the GOP having to remind voters of that Obama mentor. The latest rumor is that his book will be out in October.

McCain played the Rezko card already because of the lame "house" debate. Rezko will again be in the news beginning October 28 when his sentence hearing begins... which is supposed to be lengthy. Hmmm. Full TV coverage? Just before Election Day?

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boskop:

@fullo'thoughts:aka thoughtful

perhaps your predictions will be correct.

perhaps they wont. if they are not, can you live with mccain and why?

you go first.

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boskop:

@kiptin

when rezko's trial was underway cnn and msnbc blacked it out completly. not a peep from any of their ho hum talking fools.

do you honestly think it will be coveed this time especially if obama's lead is with in the margin of error?

comeone, wake up and smell the coffee, buddy. chris mathews wants to be press secretary so badly he'd burn his journalist code of ethics just to get it and that means NO REZKO!!

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thoughtful:

@Boskop

McCain's view of the world and his reactions, not leadership, are far too simplistic for me. He is very dangerous more dangerous than the leaders misjudgement that sent him and my generation to Vietnam a war of nationalism not communism spreading like a red tide through Asia etc.

Obama is a leader who depends on others to execute, he delegates readily and easily. He brings people together and asuages and soothes compromise. He is very tough, but he doesn't bluster, he just does!

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KipTin:

Weak arguments:
1. Washington Insider. Obama's main argument against McCain is that he has been in DC for 25 years. Yet, Biden has been there 35+ years.

2. Hmmm...CHANGE? McCain promoted campaign finance reform (ask Feingold and even Obama who noted such at the Saddleback forum). McCain was one of first to introduce legislation on climate change. McCain sponsored a bill with Teddy Kennedy for immigration reform. Just three off the top of my head that indicate that McCain indeed has authored CHANGE legislation.

3. Obama has used the "ageist" spin many times against McCain... e.g. "losing his bearings" which ironically I just heard McCain use against Obama. I have a STRONG feeling that the 20% who will not vote for McCain because of his age are already in the Obama camp.

4. Iraq War. Joe Biden vote FOR the Iraq War. This Obama "good judgement against the war" argument is now toast.

5. Without McCain's fight against Bush's losing strategy and McCain's support of the Surge, there would be no way to leave Iraq without hellish chaos taking place. (Note: I was against the Iraq invasion... one of only about 25% Americans at the time.) Even we anti-Iraq people can acknowledge that we need a leader to get us out of Iraq (and the polls indicate that McCain does lead on that issue). Obama still arguing against the Surge is really bonehead (bad judgement).

Just now on TV "This Week With George S."... How stupid is David Axlerod??? (Obama's campaign advisor)... who said that the GOP depicted Bill Clinton in 1992 as a "silver spoon Ivy Leaguer." Talk about blatant misrepresentation of history. And a BAD LIE... Clinton was running against George H.W. Bush!!! A real "silver spoon Ivy Leaguer."

____________________

brambster:

@KipTin/Undecided/NickBerry/Nicolee

Why are you again changing your ID on this site? What do you have to hide? Are you paid to post, or are you just a big time zealot?

____________________

zotz:

McCain is counting on an emotional reaction to Hillary being "rejected". At some point women will ask what are McCain's positions on women's issues. The answer is devastating for McCain's chances.

1. McCain supports overturning Roe v. Wade.

2. McCain Opposed Equal Pay Bill for Women,
Said They ‘Need Education and Training
Instead.

3. McCain Voted to Gut the Family and Medical
Leave Act.

4. McCain opposed Title X, the nation's family
planning program.

And on many other issues he voted against women.
http://www.womenforbarackobama.com/McCain.html#LOCATION2

____________________

Tybo:

"The latest Repub Ads big mistake, unites the party."

really, showing Obama's VP stating the Obama isn't ready is a mistake.

Thoughtful (lol) please show how Biden has been an agent of change.

Anita HIll? nope he sided with Thomas?

Banking? Nope he was right of the gop?

____________________

Tybo:

"At some point women will ask what are McCain's positions on women's issues. "

the problem is Obama has made clear his stance on issues is like his FISA filibuster.

____________________

KipTin:

More harassment from brambster...

FYI... I am NOT the Nickberry or Nicolee (where did you get that name?) that you scan the web for in your obsessiveness.

FYI... I as "undecided" announced a while back that I was changing my ID to "KipTin" because I have decided that I would absolutely NOT vote for Obama... and Obama bullies like you played a major role in that decision.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Kiptin

i want you to try to think laterally.

1. Effecting Change in Washington needs know how. Nobody knows Washington better than Biden.

2.you mention 3 bits of legislation that haven't been successful, have they?

3. It leaves 80% or less to be contested. You do the maths. I only got there as I couldn't undertand even with leaners that McCain couldn't get over 45% in these polls.

4. I think if Obama had been in the Senate, he would have been conned as well! The issue is that the war was immoral and legal. The issue is that we have not defeated Al Qaeda or captured or killed those directly responsible for 9/11. A dumb war comes to mind but a stain on our great country.

5. The Surge, 6 months ago even Petraeus was saying he didn't know what was happening. The Iraqis want us to leave. The Sunni insurgents decided to turn on Al Qaeda - Sunni Awakening. There are at least 10,000 troops less an Irag than there was pre-surge. The surge helped!

____________________

brambster:

@zotz

It turns out that both PUMA/JustSayNoDeal founders who Fox News was pushing for the last few months are McCain supporters. One donated to the McCain presidential primary campaign in 2000, and the other says he will enthuiastically vote for McCain in the fall and lied multiple times about how much money they had raised to pay down Hillary's debt.

David Shuster carved these people up last week:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93zl2JoRpUc&feature=related

That's not to say that there aren't real Hillary turn-coats out there, but these were likely people that would only be for Hillary and there's always some people who would only cross-over for one candidate anyway. A lot of what you see on blogs these days however it the result of "astroturfing" by parroting zealots and McCain campaign operatives. I checked out the WSJ the other day and the reaction to Biden's pick was probably 95% negative and most of that was filled with talking points.

____________________

vandrop:

@ KipTin

Thought you might like to be reminded of McCain's hundred years comment. Also thought you might like to know that Bush recently approved a time table for leaving Iraq. Remember how the Republicans raised holy hell when the Democrats kept pushing the time table idea? Yet here we are.

Even with this said, Johnny still wants a hundred years in Iraq? Man, do I feel sorry for him; he won't even follow his president on this one - that staying in Iraq is a BAD IDEA.

1. Obama never said (please, find quotation before you make illegitimate accusations) that John McCain's experience was BAD.

2. Just because Obama's VP voted for the war 5 years ago does not mean he still supports it. Plus it's Obama's judgement were talking about, not Joe's.

3. Bush is the one who MADE THE SURGE. So no, this is not a McCain 'fight against the administration.' Since when is putting 50,000 more troops into a losing battle a good idea? Since when is keeping these cultural groups (who desperately want to fight each other) down by force?


____________________

eddie59:

The more I think about it, the worse I think Obama's choice of Biden is. Remember, the key in picking a VP is "do no harm."

Biden voted for the Iraq war, has questioned Obama's readiness to lead numerous times, has been in Washington for 35+ years and is about the same age as McCain. Now a campaign that has been focused on "change," opposition to the Iraq war and has had to refute questions about its candidate's experience has the #2 guy that is on the wrong side of all of those issues. And the supporters outside the campaign can't keep whispering about McCain's age. Factor in the high likelihood that Biden will commit numerous gaffes in the next several months, and this is a very odd choice.

And if the choice of VP is supposed to be some sort of insight into the candidate's decision making process (look at Bush selecting Cheney), then what does this say about Obama? What kind of change is he really going to orchestrate when his first major decision leads him to choose a true Washington insider and career politician?

Obviously it's way too early to say what the final results will be, but I'm not thrilled by the choice.

____________________

brambster:

@KipTin/Undecided/NickBerry/Nicolee

So if I posted Nicolle's address, it wouldn't upset you at all, right?

Why are you trying to hide your past. Own up to it. Are you a zealot or are you paid to post this stuff?

Now just to be clear, I wouldn't post your address, nor your full name unless I found that you were actually working for the McCain campaign and paid to post. My best guess is that you are one of the few actual PUMA's out there and a long-term nut.

____________________

KipTin:

In reply to zotz:

1. McCain supports state rights regarding abortion (and marriage) legislation. McCain is believes in federalism. And he will not support federal intervention/amendments unless the courts take away those state rights. He very clearly has stated that many, many times.

2. McCain did NOT oppose equal pay for women. (There is already a law in place for that.) He opposed changing the time line for when a women can file a claim for unequal pay.

I find it ironic that Obama is supposed to stand up for women after the way he demeaned Hillary as well as how Obamanation feels free to continue to do so against both Hillary and her supporters. Also notable is that Obama's has often said that women should be paid the same if they are doing a "man's" job. Freakin' sexist.

3. I agree with McCain on the "gutting" of the Family and Medical Leave Act. It would have severely impacted small business.

4. Title X... so what? That is consistent with his federalism viewpoint.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

*SIGH*

The GOP and the McCainists so desperately want Rezko to become an issue but who, besides Sean Hannity, is talking about it?

Rezko does not affect the average American.

And the average American does not care. I'm not talking about the media - I'm talking the general population, the buzz around the water cooler. They're talking about McCain not knowing how many houses he has but Rezko is muddy - it doesn't hit Obama the way the house issue hits McCain. It doesn't fit on a bumper sticker.

Rezko boils down to, "Oh, so Obama knows some guy who did something wrong? Means nothing to me. And McCain voted with Bush 95% of the time and look at the mess that got us into!"

The GOP is getting desperate because they see Obama's slide has ended and McCain can't get above 45%, so matter how hard they try and swift boat Obama.

Keep hammering Rezko, GOP, because if that's the best you can do, you're grasping at straws.

____________________

carl29:

First of all:

Joe Biden took the Irak issue off the table by admitting, last year, that it was a mistake to have let the Bush administration misled him, like it happened to the rest of Americans, into this disastrous war. Don't you think that the vast majority of Americans agree with him? Just look at the progression of the war's numbers among Americans. Did Hillary ever recognized that the vote was a mistake? NO, NEVER, EVER....she was the only one of the democrats running for the nomination who never admitted it.

Second, Joe Biden has being in Washington for a long time; however, Washington has not changed him. How many Senators come and go everyday from Washington to his or her home, back in his or her state? No one, except for Biden. In terms of personal wealth, Joe Biden is the #576 out of 59-something members of congress, in the senate and the house. How does it come that he has been in Washington for such a long time and hasn't become a multi-millionare? Whether you like Biden or not, that speaks volumes of the guy.

Joe Biden comes across as a very regular guy. I don't know if it is because his not living in D.C. or his very strong middle-class roots, but he deserves credit for staying authentic. Just compare Joe Biden to John Edwards. No matter how many times people tell you that Edwards was the son of a mill worker, you just don't get that impression by looking at him. Edwards comes accross like a very "re-fine," "sophisticated" man, far from a poor kid, or a middle-class kid for that matter.

About Biden's gaffes? Look, after Bush, I have come to the conclusion that Americans find that type of personalities appealing. I don't know if it reminds them of the regular Joe at the table talking with his friends, but Americans seem to enjoy it. When Biden referred to Obama as "the first AA candidate who is mainstream, clean, articulate, and bright," the regular guys at the table say: Yeah... he is saying the truth. All Biden was trying to say was: Obama is not Jesse Jackson, to which many Americans would say...yeah!

____________________

KipTin:

Well... I now have reported you (brambster) for harassment. You apparently don't have enough gray matter to refute my comments, and you lack impulse control as illustrated by your extraordinarily impulsive behavior... including making threats!!!

Do you know what "cyberstalking" is? Wikipedia has a good overview: "Cyberstalking is the use of the Internet or other electronic means to stalk someone. It has been defined as the use of information and communications technology, particularly the Internet, by an individual or group of individuals, to HARASS another individual, group of individuals, or organization. The behavior includes FALSE ACCUSATIONS, monitoring, the transmission of THREATS, identity theft, damage to data or equipment, the solicitation of minors for sexual purposes, and gathering information for HARASSMENT purposes."

Several states now have laws against cyberstalking and I am pretty sure that "Nicolee" or "Nicolle" could successfully pursue charges against you... as could I.

____________________

brambster, stop talking like a Stalinist.

I'm a PUMA, I know plenty of PUMAs, we are genuine lifelong progressives (and highly educated political professionals, thank you very much) who are disgusted with Obama and the party. We're not crazy, we're not stupid, and we're not going away.

Threatening people who don't support your candidate is what got you people in trouble in the first place.

____________________

Tybo:

Did you obama fans miss that the 3 am phone call was a direct slam at Clinton and her supporters?

It's something a 20 year old frat boy finding aamusing in a snickering and smug way.

it was absolutely infantile.

____________________

thoughtful:

Eddie59

I agreed with you then I thought about the WISDOM of the BIDEN pick.

Obama apparently is a fine enough leader to take on people who question him and can run a different point of view, as Biden does and will.

I think the Republicans running their ads of Hillary and Biden questioning if Obama is ready, have shot themselves in both feet.

Because it gives Hill & Bill, and Biden to tell the nation that Obama has proved that he is a great leader and WISE. A president needs to be WISE.

You don't have to be old like McCain to be WISE, in fact, McCains comes across as an OLD FOOL.

____________________

KipTin:

I also reported "brambster" for making THREATS and INTIMIDATION.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Ciccina

If you are a progressive, why are you not supporting the most progressive ticket in the history of the Democratic Party?

____________________

boskop:

@eddie

obama has wisdom.
and i have dry rot on my foot.

you give your profile away young man.
but that is your privilege.

if he becomes president, i have decidd on his new moniker...o'bomb'em.

that's right, you can count on obama over compensating for his niggardly antiwar speech out thee in the distant past past one october day in 2002.

he'll march into afghanistan with a flak jacket to prove he's a man.

sad little fatherless boy he is now with another mentor, this time good ole joe.

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KipTin:

Thanks Ciccina for pointing out the Stalinist approach of brambster. I knew that kind of threatening language sounded familiar. Also reminiscent of the Maoists when people would not wear glasses in China in case they were mistaken for intellectuals and therefore relegated to prison, torture, and death.

____________________

boskop:

is brambster yet another moniker for youforgotpoland and boscrap?

also voice 99.

anyway - i wonder if they have a life with all this registering of sock pockets and new emails left and right.

who has the time? some of us work and have responsibilities for others.


____________________

boskop:

@tybo

we got it. the 3am was gratuitous rubbing her face in crap.

what a guy, that obama creep.

____________________

thoughtful:

@kiptin

I preferred you as Undecided.

Brambster is one of the few pollsters on here that actually makes sense.

About this poll, there are a lot of undecided out there, however very little enthusiasm for McCain in this or any of the other many polls.

Its early days but any trend in the last couple of weeks to McCain has stalled, why if Obama is such a terrible inexperienced louse?

____________________

brambster:

@KipTin/Undecided/NickBerry

The simple fact that you don't even own up to your own ID's on this site is proof that your arguments are not genuine. No one is fooled by someone that claims that a 6 point poll margin is nothing and explains it away by saying that it is still within the margin of error.

@Ciccina

I don't doubt that PUMA's exist, but in any close primary there is a small, but measurable, group of people that are so unhappy that they will either not vote or vote against the primary winner.

The PUMA/JustSayNoDeal groups however are spawns of the RNC. They are seeking to take advantage of this, and they have never made a secret of it. I'm actually surprised to see how unsuccessful they have been.

In reality, Obama is really fairing no worse than any recent Democrat when it comes to cross-over voters, so whether such a demographic exists is of no consequence.

FYI, after the HRC campaign leaked the picture of Obama in traditional Somali garb, I decided that I would not only never vote for her again, I would vote for her strongest opponent until she is out of office. So there are in fact plenty of anti-PUMA's out there too. I have a mantra in politics that says that I will not support a candidate that attacks grossly unfairly, especially when it comes to racism.

____________________

boskop:

well and good bramster. you decided to vote for obama on the basis of a visual byte.

and i began to move away from obama on the basis of words he used like, 'you're likable enough hillary."

but it's never just the words, it's the tone. it's always about the tone.

this site is getting dull if i have to write posts like this.

gone fishin'....

____________________

zotz:

KipTin-
#1
McCain does not believe in the constitutional right to privacy which covers abortion rights.
The states rights excuse is used by people that want to tell women (and doctors!) what they are allowed to do with their own (or their patient's) body. You (and John McCain) do not have the right to impose your code of morality on women's bodies. That is an individual right that women have. States rights was also the reason, along with the 14th amendment, for opposing civil rights legislation

#2
If women are cut off from the courts by the deadline loophole how is that serving the interest of justice for women.
Obama didn't demean Hillary anymore than McCain demeaned Romney by beating him. That is a lie. This is what Hillary said, "Senator McCain has yet again fallen in line with President Bush while middle-class families are falling by the wayside," she said in a statement after the Senate vote. "Women are earning less, but Senator McCain is offering more of the same."

#3 and 4
Saying "so what?" to family planning shows who the real sexist is here. As far as the Family and Medical Leave Act is concerned, it is a major issue for working women. It is clear that you couldn't care less about them.


____________________

KipTin:

Back to the political debate:

"Thoughtful" wants me to think "laterally" whatever that means. My main points are that in selecting Biden (whom I would vote for as President) in effect takes away several of Obama's slams against McCain. The main theme is dust-- Obama cannot effectively argue that McCain is a Washington Insider and does not represent "change" when Obama has Biden standing by his side.

I can do extensive research and come up with volumes of legislation from both Biden and McCain... but Biden is NOT running for President (or else I would vote for the Democratic ticket). "Wet behind the ears" Obama is the Dem nominee and his resume is extraordinarily thin. Even at the Saddleback Forum Obama bragged that he worked with McCain on ethics legislation. He failed to mention that his commitment to that bill was short term. McCain and Obama exchanged several heated memos over Obama ducking out.

As this poll shows... (as others polls agree) almost 1/3 of voters are "movable" and may change their mind. Maybe your "math" should be based on available statistics and analysis.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Kiptin

You just don't get it, McCain agrees with GWBush 95% of the time.

Obama/Biden/Clinton disgree with GWBush 95% of the time.

Obama appears to be strong enough to pick a running mate who looks like a President, can sound like a President and run the change ball in the Senate.

This was Bill Clinton's idea!

____________________

KipTin:

McCain believe in the 4th amendment as do I. It was the U.S. Supreme Court who applied the 4th amendment to women's health privacy rights. States have to conform to the U.S. Supreme Court decision(s). Those state laws that were not in conformance were struck down. So what is YOUR problem?

Oh, and by the way... if by some weird alignment of the moon that abortion is completely struck down by the Court, then there is the Democratic-controlled Congress to rectify that with new law.

____________________

KipTin:

I get it... Obama tells people what he wants them to hear and he seems to have trouble committing. He is extraordinarily inexperienced and a Democratic-controlled Congress and Obama as President means trouble. It may even be worse than Bush and the GOP-controlled Congress. The idea of President McCain and a Democratic Congress sets really well with me. Look how well Clinton did with a GOP Congress. They BALANCED the budget!!!

____________________

thoughtful:

@Undecided/Kiptin

with regards the leaning and undecided, 25-30%.

Yes this is a factor Stillow and I have been looking at everyday. Its not surprising.

Think of these polls as a hazy snapshot, it gets more focused with every week and indeed crystal clear after the real polls close in November.

If you look at the results of these polls they have the comparables from 2000 and 2004.

I was just telling Stillow yesterday that on my national polling model I have Obama +5% nationally, so I am gratified for these, as definitely not outlier.

If you look at the leans on the undecided on this poll its to Obama not McCain. It might be in the 18-29 weighting.

____________________

KipTin:

Oh, yeah... How about the times that Obama DID NOT DISAGREE with Bush? Obama voted FOR the BUSH/CHENEY energy bill. Notably McCain and Hillary voted AGAINST it because it had too many goodies for Big Oil and Big Ag.

And Obama voted again WITH BUSH on the FISA bill.

I guess one could say it is all in the details.

____________________

KipTin:

Your are right. SOS. I am goin' fishin' too. For real.

____________________

carl29:

I really think that poor Hillary will never be president. Why? Well, if Obama loses, McCain and his VP will enjoy a very helpful democratic congress which will get a lot of things done: bring the troops home, improve the economy, deal with renewable sources. Since Americans don't know how the gov. works, McCain-"whoever" administration will be widely popular, the folk heroes. Guess who is going to run for president at the top of the Republican ticket? McCain's VP!!! The American people won't be willing to change course, and in so doing the republican ticket will be hard to beat.

Second, who says that Hillary's chances in 2012 to get the nomination will be better than this time? Look, next time she will run against a WHITE, SOUTHERN MALE, most probable former Gov. Mark Warner. Obama already signaled that Warner is "his guy" by giving him the keynote speech on Tuesday night, Where do you think Obama nation, with all its money, will go next time around: Hillary or Warner? Let me think....Warner!!!

To be honest, I think 2008 was Hillary's only chance and she blew it :-(

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faithhopelove:

Today's Gallup tracker has the two candidates tied. McCain has some hope.

KipTin makes the valid point above that most national poll results have been within the margin of error. Still, why has McCain led in so few? The last 15 national polls have shown Obama ahead or tied (14 ahead, 1 tied).

____________________

thoughtful:

@faithhopelove

Rusmusson tracker +3%

Every weekend Gallop closes up

The other interesting thing withe Gallop is the measure of Democratic Party support for Obama, if he improves that which is the easier than converting Repubs or Indies, he wins the election rather easily, assuming the indies break as they currently break.

I really think that mcCain can't get over 45% because of the ageism.

____________________

boskop:

remember reagan's famous rebuttal to mondale?

"I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. ...

one of the best put downs for age-ism of all time.

have fun at the convention. you might want to change our moniker...calling ourself thoughtful is typically self righteous..but then again... you are typical.

____________________

thoughtful:

John McCain ain't no Ronald Reagan either!

Personally I am more concerned about McCain's mental health.

The ageism is purely polling data, as really the McCain Campaign was on top until the $5 mil comment and the loose answer to Politico on how many houses, that is a sort of game changer gaff before the conventions.

____________________

Tybo:

boskop wrote:
@tybo

we got it. the 3am was gratuitous rubbing her face in crap.

what a guy, that obama creep.

......

yep, and the obama fans here won't address it.

instead they think the PUMA's are wrong, instead of their candidate having a frat boy attitude and frat boy behavior.

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faithhopelove:

thoughtful:

I appreciate your posts. I had noted the Rasmussen tracker earlier.

Most if not all polls are showing Obama with more room for growth than McCain; Obama has not yet solidified his Democratic base, while McCain has solidified his Republican base.

____________________

zotz:

boskop, tybo
I really want to squash this 3am crap about Obama's VP announcement. I got my announcement in my in-box at 1:50 am. Where's the insult? They didn't all arrive at the same time so probably some people did get theirs at 3am. Anyone that believes it was deliberate probably has a problem that only a licenced mental health professional could deal with.

____________________

Tybo:

zotz, you got the announcement before it was made?
Could you provide a link showing the announcements weren't timed for 3 AM.. cause everyone is reporting it was a 3 am announcement..
so are you just covering for Barack?

____________________

zotz:

I'm on the west coast.

____________________

Tybo:

LMBO...

____________________

zotz:

I just thought of a reason for doing it at this time. They didn't want to overload the servers. If they did it at mid day and the servers couldn't handle it, it would have caused chaos on the internet and they would have been blamed. I don't know that that was the reason but it makes more sense than yours.

____________________

faithhopelove:

One more comment about this poll: when the question includes the names of Barr and Nader, Obama's lead grows from 4 to 6. Barr is already on the ballot in 38 states, including every swing state except for New Hampshire and Virginia. Nader is already on the ballot in about 30 states (notably, he is not on the ballot in FL, GA, WI, MN, or ND).

____________________

brambster:

Note that somewhere in the world, it is always 3 a.m., and there are 3 main time zones in the lower 48.

Just fake PUMA FUD.

____________________

eddie59:

@thoughtful

After another day to digest this, I still don't see the wisdom in Biden.

Sure, people look past Bush's obvious verbal gaffes, but his are mostly in pronunciation and bad use of the English language. It makes him seem less elite.

Biden's past gaffes have been just plain bad. Plaigarized speaches. Comments meant to be blunt and plain spoken that come out sounding mean (like his statements about Obama). Plus he talks for a LONG time. It just feels like a really bad potential train wreck. Maybe it won't be, but it's definitely a significant risk.

And this whole spin about him not being a DC insider because he goes home to Delaware every night unlike most senators and members of congress is bizarrely odd. It's just because of a geographic quirk that he can do that. Delaware happens to be a relatively short train ride away from the Capitol. I know there are some members of Congress from Virginia and Maryland who do the same thing. That doesn't mean anything.

Please don't just take the talking points from either party and regurgitate them without some analysis. Seriously, do you think a member of the senate from Montana (just for sake of argument) is more of an insider than Biden just because he has to rent a home in DC or Arlington, VA to do his job? It's really a complete red herring argument so don't fall victim to it.

And this whole other talking point that Biden can be part of "change" because he knows Washington from the inside is just as ridiculous. Biden has been part of Washington for over 3 decades. He doesn't represent change...he's had 35+ years to manage and change things. He's been the chairman of both the senate judiciary committee and the senate foreign affairs committee. Those are his strengths and can be used that way, but to say that he is going to be part of some new wave of "change" is ridiculous. He may do great things as a VP, but he doesn't represent change.

That's part of why I think Biden is a weak choice as a VP candidate. Biden's inclusion on the ticket negates some of Obama's basic message of change.

A true Washington outsider would have shown more boldness and depth to Obama's campaign. Governor Kaine from Virginia or even former governer (and current Senate candidate) Mark Warner from Virginia would have supported the change theme. This more pragmatic choice signals that an Obama presidency will give us all more of what we've been getting from Washington for a long time.

It also signals that Obama is worried about the perception of him that he is weak on foreign policy. I just think he would have been better off just ignoring that concern. Reagan and Clinton faced the exact same argument, and both were elected without trying to use their VP slot to bolster them in this area.

It does seem that Obama is worried about his standing. Given Bush's abysmal approval ratings and the economic slow down, Obama should be much further ahead today than he is.

But, I think it's a mistake to think Biden is going to help. He's high risk. There were safer choices.

But in the end, as I've said before, unless one of Biden's upcoming gaffes is really bad, it won't matter. People will either vote for Obama or McCain, not the VP.

____________________

eddie59:

I don't think the timing 3am text message was a slap in the face of Hillary. I think they were waiting until it was Saturday (midnight) on the west coast to send the text. Remember, late in the week they said that the text would come out on Saturday. So in waiting until midnight in California would make it 3am on the east coast. I don't think there was anything sinister or juvenile in sending the info at 3am. But, maybe I'm just naieve...

____________________

thoughtful:

@eddie59

You are echoeing my thoughts of Thursday and Friday when I was being told Biden was the likely pick - and I didn't believe it. See my posts!

However, with the baggage that Biden carries, I have to accept the explanation as I understand it, otherwise find another explanation. Obama and his people are very sharp, are they not?

Obama felt he needed an effective attack dog, he felt that Biden's inclusion would take away to a major extent the perceived national security issue, Biden might help with blue collar etc. and that Biden would be able to effectively run tricky legislation through the Senate post election. It would also be seen as showing big leadership bringing a former outspoken critic on-board.

You know not having the know how in Congress is what plagued Clinton as a Washington outsider in his first administration! That's why I expect Bill to take some credit for the Biden selection on Wednesday night! We will have to see.

I actually think with the attack ads up starring Hillary (prepared as they thought she was the pick) and Biden being released, the McCain campaign has shot themselves in both feet big time.

____________________

brambster:

@eddie59

Who else could Obama have picked that was both a Washington outsider and also had foreign policy clout? If Obama picked someone less known or less seasoned, don't you think that would only reinforce the "inexperienced" label that Republicans are painting him with? Obama's not launching a coup on the presidency. Experience isn't a bad thing.

"Change" doesn't mean electing complete unknowns to the Presidency. We have not elected a House or Senate member since Kennedy if I'm not mistaken, everyone else was a governor or VP (who was VP under a former governor). "Change" to most means having a new agenda in Washington. Right now for instance congressional approval is generally below 20%, and even though Democrats have the majority, they are running up to 10 points ahead in generic congressional ballots. The reason for this is because of gridlock caused by filibusters, vetoes (and threats of vetoes), and unilateral action by the Executive Branch. To people who carry "change" as a mantra, electing another republican doesn't represent change.

Now of course "Change" if over-rated. In the general election, the choice of change is obvious. This was however how Obama succeeded in delivering his message during the primaries. Hillary was already running as a moderate thinking she was a shoe-in and gunning for the general election. Obama couldn't trump Hillary with the perception of experience (though in reality he has more legislative experience), but he knew how to tap into the grass-roots of the party who was more eager to hear about change and optimism than they were in hearing the same old partisan attack lines and carefully crafted words every time a mouth was opened.

So don't mistake "Change" in the primaries with "Change" in the general election, and also don't mistake experience as being the antithesis of "Change". Now of course if you are a committed Republican, you will of course be more likely to think differently, but that doesn't matter at all.

What Obama needed was someone that could attack so that Obama didn't have to tarnish his image. This will definitely be the nastiest general election ever, even if it primarily comes from one side. Obama needed someone with clout, because to independents, his short history in the Senate is likely his greatest weakness. How picking a very well respected and non-controversial Senator hurts you by this measure is beyond me. Biden also has a greater appeal the older people get. That has been McCain's advantage, and it was also Hillary's advantage. Name recognition and experience count more and more the older you get. Biden does help here. Lastly, Obama's (and most Democrat's) biggest disadvantage is with white males, and Biden is a guy's guy. Who would you rather have a beer with? Who do you think is most approachable? Rasmussen's poll today showed that Biden was seen by men as being the right choice by a net positive of 24 points.

Here are two great posts by Nate over at FiveThirtyEight.com where he examines Biden by the numbers. The math also seems to agree that Biden was the best pick of all names being floated.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/can-biden-out-hillary-hillary.html

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/biden-new-trick-for-old-fogeys.html

____________________

Clint Cooper:

Hey Boskop.

Maybe the reason there was no mention of the Rezko trial on MSNBC is cuz it's IRRELEVANT.

The people who sold Obama his house came out and said everything was above-board.

John McCain used to hang out with Larry Craig. Why the media blackout on John McCain possibly being gay?

See my point?

____________________

Tybo:

101 excuses for the race baiting and misogynist obama.

geez, you people (that's obama fans) are EXACTLY like the people who supported Bush,jr

____________________



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