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POLL: ABC/Post National Survey


A new ABC News/Washington Post national survey (ABC story, results; Post story, results) of 1,136 adults (conducted 12/6 through 12/9) finds:

  • 33% approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president; 64% disapprove.
  • Among 429 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (53% to 23%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 10%.
  • Among 293 likely Republican primary voters, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani narrowly leads former Gov. Mike Huckabee (25% to 19%) in a national primary; former Gov. Mitt Romney trails at 17%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 14%, Sen. John McCain at 12%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

 

Comments
Andrew:

Do not, i repeat, do not believe pre- primary polls. At a time when Obama inches closer to Clinton we get this poll showing Hillary with a humongous lead.
CNN says thee lead is 10. CBS says 17, and WAPO says 30%. i think we could call this a crisis in which pollsters totally disagree with each other when it comes to samples and methods.
The polling profession suffered a blow in '04. Another one could be devastating, since pollsters are expected to have learned something from being clueless about Dean, Kerry, McCain and Bush.

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The latest Wash post poll (52-23) confirms what I've been seeing. A backlash against Oprah/Obama. I believe it's mostly resentment that the media is trying to control our perspective. There hasn't been any critical coverage only fawning.
I guess the MSM hasn't noticed that "their" candidate generally loses.
It's ironic because I actually think most of them ultimately support Hillary (a winner) but can't stomach the boredom of "inevitability" over the next few months.
I expect there's a Hillary surge in the next 10 days in every state except NH, Iowa, and SC, look for the media to be confounded, but it will be a backlash against Oprah-Obama in the echo chamber without any substance. It is insulting.
The early primary states where O-O have been will be the last to show the Hillary surge because many of the voters there were emotionally affected so they will have a temp. Obama bounce, followed by the same Hillary surge.

I predict Hillary wins every single state.


btw: Warren Buffet just endorsed Hillary. I wonder which person plays better in Iowa, NH, and SC? Billionaire Buffet or Oprah?
Though people might not want to say it. It's Buffet.
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from the post article:

"Nationally, Democrats say they put little stock in talk-show host Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of Obama. More than eight in 10 said her support will not make a difference in their vote; 8 percent said it makes them more likely to vote for Obama, while 10 percent said it would make them less likely to support him. At the same time, among black women, two in 10 said they are more likely to support Obama because of Winfrey's recommendation. (African American women went for Clinton over Obama in the poll, 54 to 34 percent.) ?

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Keith:

New Liberal:

Warren Buffet hasn't endorsed Clinton. He's done fundraisers for both her and Senator Obama.

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Andrew:

New Liberal, cherrypicking polls is bad. Did you know the CNN poll was conducted at the same time as WAPO? December 9-12.

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Sorry for facts

1. Buffet just endorsed Hillary live on CNBC.

I'm 100% sure. I saw it.

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2. There have been two polls:

cbsnyt 1 - 14

washpost 8 - 10

both have shown that contrary to CW Oprah has a negative effect on Obama.

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newliberal:

I sort of stand corrected.

He did endorse Hillary on CNBC. But he also endorsed Obama; saying he told both of them if they ran he'd support them.

So I guess she can't tout that support right now!

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Paul:

Compared to November 2007 ABC poll, essentially no change for Democrats. However, for Republicans, note Giuliani down 8, Romney up 6, McCain down 7, and Huckabee up 10.

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