Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: ABC/Post New Hampshire Democratic Primary


Additional results from the recent ABC News/Washington Post statewide survey (ABC story, results; Post story, results) of 592 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted 11/29 through 12/3) finds:

  • Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (35% to 29%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 17%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 10%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
  • 44% say they will "definitely" vote for their candidate, 26% say there is a "good chance" they'll change their mind, and 24% say it is "pretty unlikely" they will change their mind.

 

Comments
Paul:

A 29 for Obama is very good --- the largest poll number he has had in NH since July ARG.

____________________

Andrew:

Again, polls contradict each other and it's not even close. The Marist poll posted earlier has Clinton up 14% while this ABC/WP has Clinton up by only 6%.

But I noticed Marist has a very weird sample: "registered voters and resident likely to register in time to vote in New Hampshire".

What the hell does that mean?

____________________

hwc:

The ABC/WP poll had an interesting sample as well. Just 48% Democrats. 43% Independents. 8% unregistered.

The last time there was a contested primary in both parties (2000), the Democratic primary vote was 65% registered Democrats and just 30% registered Independents.

One of the reasons that the polls are all over the board, even when conducted on the same days in the same tiny state, is that the samples are very likely being weighted differently to match whatever hypothesis the pollster has about he expected makeup of the primary electorate. Multiply many fold in Iowa where nobody even has a guess how many will caucus period, let alone what their demographic composition might be.

One request I would make of every pollster working this election is to at least provide the gender percentages they are using in their weighted sample.

For example, in the 2000 primary, NH Dems split 62% women, 38% men. In 2004, it was 54% women, 46% men. Why? Did Republican men crossover because the Republican race was uncontested? What's the estimated gender split in 2008?

What is the gender split on the WaPo poll? On the Marist poll? On the Zogby poll?

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR