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POLL: American Research Group Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina Primaries


Three new American Research Group statewide surveys of 600 likely Republican primary voters and 600 likely Democratic primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (conducted 4/27 through 4/30) finds:

  • Among Democrats, former Sen. John Edwards edges out Sen. Hillary Clinton (27% to 23%) in Iowa, while Sen. Barack Obama trails at 19%. Clinton leads Edwards (37% to 26%) in New Hampshire, Obama trails at 14%. Clinton leads Obama (36% to 24%) in South Carolina, Edwards trails at 18%.

  • Among Republicans, Sen. John McCain leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani in Iowa (26% to 19%) and South Carolina (36% to 23%); in New Hampshire McCain edges out former Gov. Mitt Romney (29% to 24%), while Giuliani trails at 17%.

 

Comments
BDM:

Arg asks the questions:

1. Are you definitely going to participate in the primary or caucus

2 You might participate in the Caucus or primary

3. You definitely will not participate in the primary or caucus.

My question is of those questions do they use both number (1) or (2) to determine a likely voter or only number(1)

It seems to me this is not a very tight screenof likely voters. What are your thoughts.

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It might explain why ARG keeps consistently and without exception showing Clinton with far greater numbers in their state to state polls than all other polls of those states show; she still has the highest name recognition as it relates to Obama and Edwards, so she stands to do better among low information voters that would be more common in the absence of a tight screen.

Now why ARG keeps consistently and without exception showing McCain with far greater numbers in their state to state polls than all other polls of those states show... that I don't understand, seeing as Giuliani has the same level of name recognition as McCain; reading these Republican numbers though, you'd think we'd gone back into a time warp at least six months.

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Gary Johnson:

Did they poll 600 voters in each state, or 600 voters overall?

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