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POLL: American Research Group IA/NH/SC


Three new American Research Group statewide surveys of likely primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (conducted 5/23 through 5/25) finds:

  • Among 600 Democrats in each state, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. John Edwards 34% to 25% 18% in New Hampshire and edges him out by six points in Iowa and by four points in South Carolina; Obama trails with less than 20% in all three states.

  • Among 600 Republicans, Sen. John McCain leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani 32% to 23% in South Carolina and leads former Gov. Mitt Romney 30% to 23% in New Hampshire. In Iowa McCain edges out Giuliani 25% to 23%.

 

Comments
BDM:

What are the percentages of likely voter's being used against registered voters in IA, NH and SC?

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Chris S.:

It seems like both Clinton and McCain tend to do better in ARG's primary polls relative to how they do in those same states in other polls. And I don't just mean this current crop of polls, but all of their polls, over the course of the last six months or so.

Is there something about their methodology that might explain this?

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Till Eulenspiegel:

I think there's just a great deal of difficulty determining what is a representative sample for primary polls, not to mention the mercurial leanings of voters eight months away from the vote. I see a lot of fluctuation (check electoral-vote.com), but no obvious patterns that would suggest pollster bias.

If Edwards is down by only 4 in South Carolina, that would be a huge change from the previous ARG poll (April 30), which had Clinton-Edwards at 36-18. Likewise, down by 6 in Iowa is a large difference in the opposite direction from his previous lead of 4 points over Clinton (ARG, 4/30).

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Till Eulenspiegel:

I think there's just a great deal of difficulty determining what is a representative sample for primary polls, not to mention the mercurial leanings of voters eight months away from the vote. I see a lot of fluctuation (check electoral-vote.com), but no obvious patterns that would suggest pollster bias.

If Edwards is down by only 4 in South Carolina, that would be a huge change from the previous ARG poll (April 30), which had Clinton-Edwards at 36-18. Likewise, down by 6 in Iowa is a large difference in the opposite direction from his previous lead of 4 points over Clinton (ARG, 4/30).

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ARG has consistently shown McCain and Hillary with WAY better relative leads in early states. I don't understand why this is.

In virtually _all_ other polls, Romney is tied for the lead to well ahead in Iowa, whereas McCain has been stagnant to slightly negative in all states.

Similarly, no other poll puts Hillary at 1st in IA, and all polls show Edwards getting relatively crushed in SC.

Very, very weird methodology.

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Paula:

Hillary is actually ahead 34-18 in New Hampshire, not 34-25.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

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Good to hear I'm not the only one noticing ARG's strikingly consistent slant towards the long-time corporate establishment candidates Clinton and McCain in its primary polling; I've been bringing this up for months now.

Clinton, one might argue, pops up more because ARG's methodology is picking up more pure name recognition, as Clinton holds an edge over Edwards and slightly moreso over Obama in terms of familiarity with the public. The problem is, Guiliani is just as well known as McCain, so this theory doesn't hold up.

Well then, perhaps independent voters are being sampled heavily by ARG, giving McCain an edge? Nope, because if that were the case, Obama would be creaming Clinton in ARG polls due to his huge lead over her among independents.

Honestly, I can't think of a plausible statistical theory that would explain Clinton and McCain both doing so well in ARG primary polls relative to all other primary polls, as if the last year of the campaign that thwarted establishment expectations never occured. Is there any reasonable guess that someone can postulate as to these ARG discrepancies, and considering how much establishment power and financial interest was consolidated behind Clinton and McCain in the years leading up to the election, at what point does a reasonable person begin to question whether push polling may be involved here?

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Good to hear I'm not the only one noticing ARG's strikingly consistent slant towards the long-time corporate establishment candidates Clinton and McCain in its primary polling; I've been bringing this up for months now.

Clinton, one might argue, pops up more because ARG's methodology is picking up more pure name recognition, as Clinton holds an edge over Edwards and slightly moreso over Obama in terms of familiarity with the public. The problem is, Guiliani is just as well known as McCain, so this theory doesn't hold up.

Well then, perhaps independent voters are being sampled heavily by ARG, giving McCain an edge? Nope, because if that were the case, Obama would be creaming Clinton in ARG polls due to his huge lead over her among independents.

Honestly, I can't think of a plausible statistical theory that would explain Clinton and McCain both doing so well in ARG primary polls relative to all other primary polls, as if the last year of the campaign that thwarted establishment expectations never occured. Is there any reasonable guess that someone can postulate as to these ARG discrepancies, and considering how much establishment power and financial interest was consolidated behind Clinton and McCain in the years leading up to the election, at what point does a reasonable person begin to question whether push polling may be involved here?

____________________

Good to hear I'm not the only one noticing ARG's strikingly consistent slant towards Clinton and McCain in its primary polling; I've been bringing this up for months now.

Clinton, one might argue, pops up more because ARG's methodology is picking up more low information voters based on pure name recognition, as Clinton holds an edge over Edwards and slightly moreso over Obama in terms of familiarity with the public. The problem is, Guiliani is just as well known as McCain, so this theory doesn't hold up.

Well then, perhaps independent voters are being sampled heavily by ARG, giving McCain an edge? Nope, because if that were the case, Obama would be creaming Clinton in ARG polls due to his huge lead over her among independents.

Honestly, I can't think of a plausible statistical theory that would explain Clinton and McCain both doing so well in ARG primary polls relative to all other primary polls, as if the last year of the campaign that thwarted establishment expectations never occured. Is there any reasonable guess that someone can postulate as to these ARG discrepancies, and considering how much establishment power and financial interest was consolidated behind Clinton and McCain in the years leading up to the election, at what point does a reasonable person begin to question whether push polling may be involved here?

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Snow:

Any polls that put Edwards so high make me uneasy. Are Democrats out of their mind to keep trusting this guy. He is going to melt before any Republican candidate in a general election. You better listen and read about him. He has way too much garbage. Should we keep supporting him because he is the white man among the top three. Democrats will be sorry for this. Better watch out.

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Snow:

Are Democrates out of their mind to keep trusting Edwards? The guy has too much garbage.

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It's GOP Me!:

POLLS come and go....the question is who can beat Hillary in Nov. 08? Rudy, Rudy, Rudy. Winning is paramount.

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Congressman Ron Paul appears to be the only REAL presidential candidate with American's interests in mind. All the rest sound as if they're reading from some shared script; they also talk constantly about war. Are they nuts, or just on someone's payroll?

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