Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: American Research Group IA/NH/SC Surveys


Three new American Research Group statewide surveys of likely voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (conducted 6/26 through 6/30) find:

  • Among 600 Iowa Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton edges out former Sen. John Edwards (32% to 29%) in a statewide caucus; among 600 republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani 25% to 18%.

  • Among 600 New Hampshire Democrats, Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama 34% to 25%; among 600 Republicans, Romney leads Sen. John McCain 27% to 21%.

  • Among 600 Democrats in South Carolina, Clinton leads Edwards 37% to 22%; among 600 Republicans, McCain edges out Giuliani 23% to 22%.

 

Comments

Why is ARG taken seriously?

I wish someone else would ask this question just because I have thrown out too many accusations on this site to credibly demand an accounting of ARG's methodology on my own. The idea that McCain and Clinton are winning their respective nominations in SC is absurd. The idea that Clinton is leading Edwards in IA is also pretty tough to swallow. NH, I guess I could see those numbers making sense ... but ... come on.

____________________

BDM:

These poll's have been outlier's compared to most other polls for the three states.

I think they use a very different voter screen that is much more loose than the other pollster's.

____________________

Molly:

Why do more and more people use
apostrophes to form plurals ("poll's").
It's so very WRONG!

____________________

georgep:

ARG's voter screen includes more Democrats than other polls, which is fitting for Iowa, since Iowa does not allow Independents to vote in their caucuses. The numbers for Iowa look right and in line with other polling we have seen recently.

As for New Hampshire, recent polls have shown Clinton's lead rather large in that state, at around 17% to 18%. In contrast ARG's result is relatively low for Clinton in comparison, but of course there is the fluctuation within the Margin of Error to consider.

Clinton has been leading in South Carolina all along, and there is nothing to indicate that that has changed dramatically. Obama's polling number for SC may be a bit low here, but the overall Clinton lead seems correct.

____________________

john c:

Most of these ARG polls have undecideds at a rather low 15%. There' no way the actual number of undecideds is that low, its probably close to 50%

____________________

Paul:

In response to: The idea that McCain and Clinton are winning their respective nominations in SC is absurd. The idea that Clinton is leading Edwards in IA is also pretty tough to swallow.

The last 7 non ARG McCain - SC polls average 18%. The last three ARG McCain - SC polls have McCain on average at 30%. ARG samples favor McCain relative to other polls by double digits.

The last 8 non ARG Clinton - SC polls average 28%. The last three ARG Clinton - SC polls have Clinton on average at 36%. Appears at this point ARG samples do favor Clinton relative to other polls, by nearly double digits.

The differences between ARG and other polls, at 8 and 12 points, would be above or at the very high end of margin of error.

As to ARG and Clinton vs. Edwards in Iowa, whereas ARG has Clinton +3, recently there is poll data with Edwards +10, Clinton +1, Edwards +14, and Edwards +6. Recent ARG number for Clinton is best I have seen in last 5 weeks. Does that mean Clinton is improving in Iowa or is ARG sample in Iowa similarly constituted to SC?

____________________

Chantal:

Seriously, what's ARG's likely voter model? A pulse?

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR