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POLL: American Research Group Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina


Three new American Research Group statewide surveys of likely caucus/primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (conducted 9/26 through 9/29) find:

  • Among 600 likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (30% to 24%); former Sen. John Edwards trails at 19%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 10%. Among 600 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney narrowly leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (22% to 21%); former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 16%, Sen. John McCain at 11%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5%.
  • Among 600 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, Clinton leads Obama (41% to 22%); Edwards trails at 10%, Richardson at 8%. Among 600 Republicans, Romney (at 24%) narrowly leads McCain and Giuliani (both at 20%); Thompson trails at 8%, Gingrich at 6%.
  • Among 600 likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina, Clinton leads Obama (41% to 30%); Edwards trails at 7%, Richardson at 5%. Among 600 Republicans, Romney edges out Giuliani (26% to 23%) while McCain, Thompson, and Gingrich trail at 15%, 10%, and 7% respectively.
  • All other candidates trail at less than five percent each.

 

Comments
Rich B.:

That Romney is S.C. is either a huge outlier, or else the first sign that he completely wrapped up the nomination.

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BGG:

The Romney result may indicate movement from Fred and Huckabee to Romney. Both have collapsed in this poll (from last month) while Rudy and McCain are fairly stable. It may be due to Dobson's comments and Romney's ads. Rasmussen also shows a Romney surge. Rasmussen has been the most Fred friendly poll. ARG has tended to favor McCain. However, on the state level ARG tends to be very sensitive to shifts.

If this poll is an outlier it is only an outlier among more conservative voters (Fred and Huckabee). Rudy and McCain numbers are stable.

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Martin Bradley:

These numbers, particularly South Carolina, are really bad news for Edwards. SC was the only state he won four years ago, and he's at ten percent there now. Hillary and Obama have combined wrapped up 75% of the SC vote, meaning Edwards can't do better than 20-25% there no matter what. So he would be well advised to pull out of South Carolina altogether and not spend another cent there until when/if he wins Iowa. As it is, these numbers indicate that even if Edwards does win Iowa or do well in NH that he would still lose badly in SC.

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