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POLL: American Research Group National Primary


A new American Research Group national survey of likely primary voters (conducted 6/9 through 6/12) finds:

  • Among 600 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (39% to 19%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 13%.

  • Among 600 Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 24%) edges out Sen. John McCain (20%) in a national primary; former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 15%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 12%, and former Gov. Mitt Romney at 10%.

 

Comments
TK:

Who is paying for the ARG poll? Are they just doing it out of the goodness of their heart?

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Eric:

ARG's Dick Bennett responded to questions about sponsorship of their surveys in this blog post from Mark Blumenthal.

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Anonymous:

Hillary has more support now than Obama and Edwards *combined*! The fact is that Hillary gets such solid support from women and african americans, who make up a large base of primary voters, that she is prohibitively favored to be nominated. Obama and Edwards have no chance. You don't want Hillary to be the nominee? You better go on your hands and knees and BEG Al Gore to get in the race. He is the only one who can make it interesting. But Hillary even decisively beats Gore in the polling.

It does not same much at all of Edwards right now that Gore, who is not campaigning and is not a candidate, outpolls him.

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Shadow:

Gore is as bad a general election idea as Clinton; Obama and Edwards are charismatic and likeable candidates who can win the Presidency by huge margins. It would be a foolish risk for Democrats to pass them over to nominate another stiff, but I must admit, it would be historically consistent.

Fortunately for Democrats, we are not having all the primaries on the same day, and these national poll results mean nothing compared to the first primary states. Hillary won't win Iowa, and that will hurt her "inevitability" campaign; right now she's polling third in Iowa, behind Obama. New Hampshire's independents would likely catapult Obama past her once her balloon is burst, and he is pretty much tied with her in South Carolina already. A national poll seven months before the primaries is no reason for anyone to panic that Clinton and Gore are the only options.

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I like it how Clinton's astroturfers have been reduced to cheering for ARG. It's hands down the biggest outlier of any poll.

I just wish national media would stop taking ARG seriously.

Rasmussen spawned reams of back-and-forth when it was showing much worse results for Clinton; now that ARG is showing absurdly good results for McCain (and typical, not-quite-outlier padding for Clinton) maybe it's time to talk a little more about their methodology. If that's the right word.

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Ivote:

I wasn't polled. I vote for Edwards in CALIF.

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Anonymous:

Alex Forshaw, the new Wall Street Journal poll has the same numbers as ARG essentially, as do several other national numbers. ARG's numbers are not inaccurate. Hillary has been doing better and Edwards sinking since the debates started.

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C.T.Binder:

After reading the impeach Bush poll numbers I was curious to check on the polling organization. The give away at the ARG website was their polling numbers for Republican respondents was strait from fantasyland and totally ridiculous. Democratics dependent on ARG polls are in for a rude awakening.

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R Drozek:

I found your news release which was posted on Yahoo that 45% of Americans want GW Bush our President to be impeached, ridiculous. As usual, this is just another Democratic Party funded organization to try to sway public opinion. I believe that Bill Clinton was impeached, now the rats in the Democratic Party have to play their typical DNC insane tactics to belittle our American institutions. I am sick of you evil doers of the left. We are not going to take it anymore! We are not going to listen to your propaganda and media games. It is unfortunate that the "lard heads" at Yahoo, believe that your poll was newsworthy. At one time the hope was that the Internet would give us the truth,but Yahoo's little socialist college grads that they hire are continuing to denigrate our Country.

We know the Games Democrat "socialist and gays!" We are going to fight you even more in the next coming election because you and this phoney DNC front organization ARG,lies to the American people and should be put out of business, at least to make it aware that the Democratic Party is an Un-American, racist, and gender biased political party that seeks to destroy our Families,Children, and our jobs.

Yahoo has lost all credibility when it post on its website such garbage from ARG

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