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POLL: AP/Ipsos National


Associated Press/Ipsos Public Affairs
(story, results)

National
Obama 46, Clinton 43... McCain 53, Huckabee 27
Clinton 48, McCain 43... Obama 51, McCain 41

 

Comments
rowjimmy:

Such a wide swing from Rasmussen which shows McCain +4 against both, but AP has Obama +10 and Clinton +5.

How can two polls show such diverging results for the same contest?

Personally, I think the AP ones are more accurate. I cannot imagine how McCain would beat either candidate, but I think it would be a closer match up with Clinton. Then again, I never imagined we'd have 8 years of GWB. Anyone have any thoughts about these (meaningless, really) pre-general polls?

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Andrew:

rowjimmy, You just posted the most unscientific comment of the day. You think the AP is right becuase you just can't imagine John McCain beating either Democrat. And what is your imagination's margin of error, if I may ask?

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oregongal:

Oh cut him some slack. I know how it feels to look at conflicting reports and want so desperately to believe only in the ones that reflect my own preferences. Why? because that's what I want to happen. The other just CAN'T.

Except, that method didn't work in 2004.

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rowjimmy:

"rowjimmy, You just posted the most unscientific comment of the day. "

Sorry Andrew. You obviously have not read all the comments on this site if you think mine are the least scientific. I will do better next time, I promise.

Regradless, I did not claim it was a scientific comment, did I? I said I personally felt that the AP ones were more reflective of what I thought would transpire. There are wildly diverging polls on the general election.

Instead of attacking me, in a rather petulant and unnecessary way (it's not like I insulted you), you could explain to us, with your PhD in mathematics/statistics, why AP is incorrect/correct and other polls are correct/incorrect about the general election given their methodology and sampling practices.

OK?

I look forward to reading your analysis as your earliest convenience. And again, sorry I was so offensively unscientific. I'll try to throw more "the fat lady is singing" and "Billary" dialogue to get up to par with other posters around here.

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rowjimmy:

"I know how it feels to look at conflicting reports and want so desperately to believe only in the ones that reflect my own preferences"

Oregongal:

Thanks for your support. Actually, I do not have a "horse" in this race between Obama and McCain. I really do not like either of them, but find it hard to fathom that McCain would beat Obama after Obama's meteoric rise over the last few months. But, that is just intuition, not "scientific" as Andrew notes. My margin of error on intuition is not too large.

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Ferd:

ROWJIMMY-


Don't worry - you're spot on about McCain. He won't beat Obama in November. As you alluded to, the meteoric rise is just beginning with no signs of slowing down.


I see the margins becoming larger the more it goes on. It will be interesting to see what swift-boat tactics the repubs will use to try and slow down the momentum. So far, Hillary's kitchen sink approach -

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/26/us/politics/26clinton.html?ex=1361682000&en=b82ee315ff215d65&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

doesn't seem to be working - maybe because the college-educated folk are in Obama's camp already and don't fall for such nonsense. Hard to say really.

As you said, people did vote for George the Chimp not once but twice, so I never underestimate the voters' capacity for stupidity. That, truly, knows no bounds.


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