Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: AP-Ipsos National


Associated Press/Ipsos
(story, results)

National
Obama 46, McCain 44... Clinton 50, McCain 41

 

Comments
boskop:

with polls like these, we should look for another blast of the dean scream.

____________________

Andrew_in_California:

What?

____________________

Shadar:

McCain must be really worried that he can't even lead in the polls when the Democrats are so heavily divided. What will happen when a single candidate is picked and the other candidate campaigns for them? This lead can only go up.

To me polls like this are clear signs that this is going to be a very bad year for republicans. The margins that the president wins by has a large correlation with how many down-ticket races that party picks up. A 1-2% win only gets you a few seats in the house/senate. A 5-10% win gets you a tidal wave of seats.

____________________

americaferreraisafatho:

boskop - umm, you aren't making any sense again.....

____________________

Patrick:

This national poll was taken after PA, but before Rev. Wright's new fiery comments which are peppering the news today (as well as news that Obama is ducking another debate and MS's Republican party is joining NC in running Rev. Wright ads). It may very well show the start of a steady trend away from Obama. Voters don't like "play it safe" candidates and the media is really portraying Obama that way. If Clinton wins Indiana (which is starting to look more likely) with major working class support and Obama's presumptive win in NC shows heavily polarized support (i.e. 90+% of blacks, but 25% or less of working class whites), the media will really ramp up the "is Obama really electable?" storyline. We'll constantly hear him compared to Kerry, Dukakis, and McGovern. Unless Clinton outright loses IN, this is going all the way to Puerto Rico (which is a "winner take all" primary w/ 60-some delegates). A big win by Clinton there (after huge wins in KY and WV) could cut dramatically into Obama's pledged delegate lead and by then, she may have an edge in the popular vote. It's going to be interesting.

____________________

boskop:

i'm making perfect sense. with clinton surging in these polls poor howard dean is in a real pickle, especially with his recent mandate to get things wrapped up by june 4th.

he thought he had a candidate in obama and now it seems he may not. remember his famous 'scream', the one that basically lost him the nomination? he may start howling again in anger and frustration.

____________________

ByTheNumbers:

Note that Puerto Rico is not a "winner take all" primary. Democratic Party rules require proportional selection, and Puerto Rico complies.

The "winner take all" myth derives from past presidential contests in which Puerto Rico held a caucus very late, and all other candidates had dropped out. In a caucus system (with a minimum threshold for obtaining delegates), Gore and Kerry were able to take all the delegates because their opponents were no longer running and could not clear the threshold.

Puerto Rico changed its system to a primary this year as a result of the anticipate heavy turnout. See http://www.prideintheparty.org/pdf/PR.pdf

____________________

RS:

How soon people forget! The raison d'etre of Senator Clinton's campaign is that she's more experienced, white folks will not vote for an African-American candidate, he's too liberal, etc. etc. In other words - she's more electable, and the "safe" candidate. It still is ["He will not win, Bill!"]

That's the same rationale that got John Kerry nominated over Howard Dean and eventually John Edwards... So Democratic primary voters actually apparently do prefer the "safe" choice. Except this cycle, more new voters have come in who refuse to back the "safe" choice, i.e. Senator Clinton. And therein lies a tale...

@Patrick - you really should play around with the Slate.com delegate calculator, and then perhaps you will realize what "dramatically cut into his lead" really requires...

____________________

jsh1120:

ByTheNumbers: Thanks for that explanation of the urban myth regarding the Puerto Rico primary. I had heard the same claim that it was a winner-take-all and, while I knew it to be false, I was surprised to see it crop up from so many different sources.

As far as what is going on in the AP/Ipsos poll, it's hard to tell without at least some of the internal numbers.

Does anyone know if this a "panel" survey? I was under the impression that AP/Ipsos was conducting such a long term study and I'm wondering if these results are from that sample.

In any event, it looks as if some of the traditional Democrats may be coming home after Clinton's win in PA while McCain's hold on some independents may remain. At least for the present.

My guess has been for sometime that Clinton's only significant chance for the nomination involves polling that clearly indicates she can beat McCain while Obama clearly cannot. This result doesn't meet the latter standard so I doubt it makes a difference. And if it suggests a general softening in McCain's support, it's unlikely that the conditions will be met.

____________________

jsh1120:

By the way, the topline results for the AP/Ipsos poll are available at:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr080428-1topline.pdf&id=3898

____________________

Tybo:

It's gotten to the point where democrats should be pushing a Clinton/Obama ticket.

That's the only sure way to win

____________________

damitajo1:

RS, Clinton is the antithesis to Kerry. The media flocked to Kerry and flogged Dean. The "scream" was a fabrication (google: sound-filtering microphone howard dean). The media thought he was the safer candidate. He was patrician. Harvard. Blah blah. Obama is the same. The white elites love him. The difference is that the young people do too -- whereas they liked Dean. But he is the media darling. He smacked down the favorite coming in, and when the media jumped on his wagon, the party ran with it. This is what happened in 2004. Dean was winning; the media started bashing him; Kerry gets lucky after Iowa. Problem here: Clinton did not go away, and her fans are not wishy-washy, like Dean's. Clinton can win it. She's a Clinton!

____________________

RS:

@damitajo1:
I strongly disagree. If anything, Senator Obama is Dean v2, except much better organized - it might be safe to say grass-roots organizing has gotten better since 2004.

Senator Clinton is the true establishment candidate - "long" record of experience, a Clinton, $$$ from traditional big Democratic donors. As late as Iowa, Senator Clinton was supposed to crush all opposition and waltz away with the nomination - despite Senator Obama's matching fund-raising, he was nowhere in the national polls, you can look it up.

Senator Clinton being the "safe" candidate is based on her being the "patrician" in the race - one of the First Democratic Family - and her "typical Democrat" electoral strategy - Kerry+1 state. Are you saying that her fans vote for her because she's a risk? The 65+ age group? Are you kidding me?

Senator Obama may now look the front-runner, but that's because he earned it by out-organizing Senator Clinton in many states. Not because he was/is a media darling or some such inanity. And to call Senator Obama patrician - you can't be serious!

By the way, Senator Kerry is not Harvard - he actually went to Boston College Law.

____________________

gomer0:

Obama is in the mode of Gary Hart / Howard Dean /Bill Bradley in getting the liberal, educated and the young/independent voters. Clinton is the Mondale/Kerry/Gore model of the establishment candidate. Each time the establishment won. The important difference now is Obama gets the African American vote which was more split among the two groups previously. That means, he has about 1/2 of the Democratic coalition while Clinton has the other roughly half and hence the protracted race.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR